quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
Hormuz was open to begin with, how could the whole point of Trump's plan be to open that which already was?

The Strait of Hormuz is closed now, which was understood to occur the minute any hostilities began with Iran. I don’t understand your comment.

quote:

Originally posted by coyotedude:
"Trump Tells Aides He’s Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz".

If the above headline in the 3/30/26 evening edition of the WSJ is credible, what is the whole f'n point of Trump's alledged plan? Leave a dumpster fire for the rest of the world to clean up?

I think it's called telling the world it's not our problem anymore... and I love it!
We don't have to be the world cop anymore. We can't get bogged down, spending American blood and treasure keeping or forcing that Strait to open. It's a world problem, not a US problem.

Off-Ramp Imminent? Trump Tells World "Go Get Your Own Oil" Via Strait After 'Decimating' Iran

There's been a lot of speculation that the White House is preparing to find a 'mission accomplished' declaration moment, as 'any offramp will do' as a way to avoid a costly potential quagmire of introducing ground troops, and we may be seeing the start of one.

After comments apparently leaked to The Wall Street Journal overnight that Trump is willing to leave Iran with the Strait unopened, the President has clarified his thinking in his out loud voice this morning.

President Trump has posted on social media this morning, clearly signaling he is further down the road towards an off-ramp:

All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you:

Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and

Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT.

You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us.

Iran has been, essentially, decimated.

The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!

President DJT

The reaction was a drop in the price of oil...

...

The key shift then remains the Strait.

If the US pauses while Iran maintains some level of disruption, the pressure flips… China, Korea, Japan, India, Europe and the GCC all become directly incentivized to force flows back online.

Even partial restrictions (e.g. US/Israeli vessels) are manageable…so a unilateral victory could actually restart flows and shift pressure to ROW to get strait moving.

https://www.zerohedge.com/mark...fter-decimating-iran

I agree, that oil has minimal effect on us.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: parabellum,

quote:

Originally posted by reloader-1:

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
Hormuz was open to begin with, how could the whole point of Trump's plan be to open that which already was?

The Strait of Hormuz is closed now, which was understood to occur the minute any hostilities began with Iran. I don’t understand your comment.

Taken out context, my comment makes no sense. Reading the post I quoted:

quote:

Originally posted by coyotedude:
"Trump Tells Aides He’s Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz".

If the above headline in the 3/30/26 evening edition of the WSJ is credible, what is the whole f'n point of Trump's alledged plan? Leave a dumpster fire for the rest of the world to clean up?

and then reading my comment, I'm saying opening the Strait was never an objective for the USA. Its being open or closed was not a reason we chose to take the war back to Iran and has nothing to do with Trump's plan where as the post I quoted claims it was the whole point of Trump's plan.

Any dumpsterfire Iran is causing by closing the Strait is not our problem. We didn't close it, Iran did; we don't need it to be open, other countries do; and how those countries look out for their interests rests with them.

quote:

Any dumpster-fire Iran is causing by closing the Strait is not our problem. We didn't close it, Iran did; we don't need it to be open, other countries do; and how those countries look out for their interests rests with them.

Yes, exactly.

Trump's statement this morning was beautiful. He just told the cheating gold-digger spouse that the party is over.

Friends have each others' backs even when it isn't fun or convenient. Trump has exposed our supposed allies for being no more than fair weather friends. They're happy to show up when we're buying the pizza and beer, but ask for help moving the couch and they all suddenly have somewhere else to be.

I believe he has revealed their fear of muslims within their borders. Also, secondarily, they have conditioned their population to be so woke that the politicians now are at risk if they appear to side with Trump.

https://x.com/grey4626/status/2038969883216445538

Fucking Finally.

The Lion of Mar-a-Lago has roared with that signature, unfiltered lethality, and the message slices through the European delusion like a Tomahawk through a command bunker:

the age of American subsidy for your parasitic cowardice is fucking over.

To the sniveling, jet-fuel-starved cock-suckers of the United Kingdom and its spineless continental cohorts...listen the fuck up.

For eighty years we have bled treasure, blood, and industrial supremacy to underwrite your decadent existence.

From the Marshall Plan’s reconstruction of your war-ravaged empires to the carrier battle groups that have patrolled the Persian Gulf since the Tanker War of the 1980s, America has been your unpaid mercenary, your nuclear umbrella, your global logistics backbone.

NATO?

Nothing more than the North American Tribute Organization...where the United States shoulders over sixty-five percent of the alliance’s actual spending while your militaries have atrophied into hollow parade-ground husks, underfunded, undermanned, and equipped with yesterday’s gear because you chose cradle-to-grave welfare states and green virtue-signaling over steel and resolve.

Geopolitically, the Strait of Hormuz is no academic footnote:

it is the jugular vein of the world economy, funneling twenty-one percent of global petroleum liquids...nineteen million barrels a day...through a narrow chokepoint that asymmetric Iranian tactics...mines, anti-ship missiles, speedboat swarms...were designed to threaten precisely because they knew direct confrontation with American naval power was suicide.

We and our Israeli partners have done the hard kinetic work...the precision decapitation of their leadership structure.

The heavy lifting is finished.

Now these same European freeloaders, who lacked the spine to commit forces when it mattered, dare complain about disrupted sea lanes?

Decades of Pax Americana have bred in you a terminal strategic infantilism:

a learned helplessness wrapped in smug moral superiority.

You lecture the world on the “rules-based order” while outsourcing your survival to American sons and daughters.

History is merciless on this point...from the Suez Crisis of 1956, when your imperial twilight exposed the limits of European power projection without U.S. backing, to the present.

Your elites are psychologically castrated by comfort; your populations softened by entitlement.

You forgot that freedom of navigation is not a birthright...it is enforced by gun, steel, and the will to use them.

President Trump’s directive is surgical in its venomous precision:

Number One, buy the fucking fuel from us...we have plenty.

Number Two, grow some long-overdue balls, reconstitute what remains of your navies, sail into the Strait, and TAKE IT.

No more American taxpayers dying to keep your fighters in the sky and your economies from freezing in the dark while you backstab and virtue-signal.

The parasite has fed on the host long enough.

The era of the United States as Europe’s security guard, banker, and scapegoat is closed.

Fight for your own oil or learn to live without it.

Adapt or wither. The choice is yours, but the protection racket is finished.

Grow a fucking spine or don't. We don't give a fuck anymore.

^^^^
That’s telling it like it is!

And cut off all the foreign aid we give the parasites, too.

These Eurosluts are shitting a collective brick right now, you just know it.

Interesting tactic. It's no secret that NATO militaries are a shambles. If this motivates them to step up their game, the whole world could become a safer place. And at the same time we get to knock the Iranian government down a few notches without a protracted ground conflict.

The flip side is that it opens Trump up to accusations of being a petulant child who took a shit in the Gulf and left it for the rest of the world to clean up.

If I'm Europe I'm not going to like it, but sometimes in life it takes sharp criticism and consequences to get us to correct course. The outcome will all be in how they choose to receive it. I grew up in Europe and love that continent, so I hope they can look past the rhetoric and take this as an opportunity to get stronger. It's kind of like a DI in basic training smoking a recruit...yeah, he comes across like a raging asshole, but his motivation is to make the recruit better.

This is definitely an unconventional approach to diplomacy...use an adversary to push your allies to make the changes you believe they need to make. It's harsh, but when we've reached the point that Great Britain, the premier European naval power, has let it's fleet dwindle to five operational warships, something has to be done.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:

quote:

Any dumpster-fire Iran is causing by closing the Strait is not our problem. We didn't close it, Iran did; we don't need it to be open, other countries do; and how those countries look out for their interests rests with them.

Yes, exactly.

It's mainly an Asia Pacific problem which is the reason there has been the sharp divergence in crude prices between western crude oils (WTI and Brent) and eastern hemisphere crude oils (e.g. Platts Dubai). Last paragraph of this post covers the phenomenon.

I shared ~20 days ago that the US imports about 2.4 million barrels per day via tanker to maintain life as we know it. We'll need crude oil that matches our refinery's crude units and we'll need tankers and super tankers. We'll primarily be bidding against Europe for the crude oil. Here is the most recent EIA crude oil import list and Canada can be ignored as it's pipeline so the rest is tanker or super tanker (I'll get to that later).


The target for the crude oil is to hit the refineries in Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Delaware, and Pennsylvania as that is where most of the coastal refining capacity is located. It looks doable by targeting South America but there are two pain points for us:

most of Saudi's ports need Strait of Hormuz, but they have a cross country pipeline to their 3 ports on Red Sea. That pipeline has been on news as being very active recently.

all of Iraq's ports need Strait of Hormuz. They have one pipeline to Turkey that has been a real lifeline.

we can buy more of Venezuela's oil production which is 1.1 million barrels per day (it was 0.95 in Jan '26 so improving as is the amount we import) and now that it's not going illegally to Cuba and China part could be diverted to US. The refinery crude units set-up to run heavy crude can process it, but the crude units set-up to run lights (e.g. WTI) would actually lose production trying to refine it.

we can buy more of Guyana's oil production which is 0.9 million barrels per day. Majority owners of oil field are ExxonMobil and Chevron.

we can buy more of Brazil's crude oil as they're 3.7 million barrels per day. It's a medium weight sweet crude so refineries would have to blend it with a light sweet crude to run in their light crude oil units.

The big super tankers (ULCC and VLCC) are long range specialists, but are too large to transit either the Suez Canal or Panama Canal when full. Shipping partially full or littering negates their advantage.

ULCC's are nice since they're 3 million barrels (i.e. 1 is more than daily US need), but they're limited to deepwater terminals (e.g. Louisiana Offshore Oil Port). Not many in existence as they're not very practical.

VLCCs are nice since they're 2 million barrels (i.e. 1 is almost US daily need) and they're the workhorse of the industry. Some of the tankers "tied up" by Strait of Hormuz difficulties are this class. Both Brazil and Guyana currently utilize these.

The next size down is (1) super tanker and (2) tankers:

the Suez Max (aka designed specifically for Suez Canal) is 1 million barrels and still a long range tanker. It's pretty common in the Atlantic and Carribean. Some of the tankers "tied up" by Strait of Hormuz difficulties are this class. Both Brazil and Guyana currently utilize these.

Aframax is medium range and 0.8 million barrels. It's specialty is navigating more challenging ports (e.g Philidelphia where we have refineries) compared to the big boys. Some of the tankers "tied up" by Strait of Hormuz difficulties are this class.

Panamax is "tiny" at 0.5 million barrels, and it's designed specifically for the Panama Canal. Good regional tanker though (e.g. Venezuela).

---

Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity

DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.

Interesting in that those of you believe we're somehow insulated from the the world's oil market, and/or we're 'self sufficient'. Regardless of how many barrels we pump daily, our prices are influenced by world events, including the events in the Hormuz.

Those tankers that exited the Strait before this 'excursion' started are now arriving at their destinations. Behind that, zip. Unless that strait is opened pronto, the price of a barrel is going to rocket.

quote:

Originally posted by coyotedude:
Interesting in that those of you believe we're somehow insulated from the the world's oil market, and/or we're 'self sufficient'. Regardless of how many barrels we pump daily, our prices are influenced by world events, including the events in the Hormuz.

Those tankers that exited the Strait before this 'excursion' started are now arriving at their destinations. Behind that, zip. Unless that strait is opened pronto, the price of a barrel is going to rocket.

Whatever - the replacement has already started

https://sigforum.com/eve/forum...0601935/m/8720041025

"<Sable> announced oil began flowing on March 29, with the pipeline successfully filled from Las Flores Canyon to Pentland Station at a rate exceeding 50,000 barrels per day."

Just the beginning...

quote:

Originally posted by coyotedude:

Interesting in that those of you believe we're somehow insulated from the the world's oil market, and/or we're 'self sufficient'. Regardless of how many barrels we pump daily, our prices are influenced by world events, including the events in the Hormuz.

No one said that.

We get it, you don't like what Trump did here

Well the days of kicking that can down the road since 1979, for the next guy to deal with are over.

Deal with it.

quote:

Originally posted by coyotedude:
Interesting in that those of you believe we're somehow insulated from the the world's oil market, and/or we're 'self sufficient'. Regardless of how many barrels we pump daily, our prices are influenced by world events, including the events in the Hormuz.

Those tankers that exited the Strait before this 'excursion' started are now arriving at their destinations. Behind that, zip. Unless that strait is opened pronto, the price of a barrel is going to rocket.

I kinda hope it does. Not that I relish the thought of paying higher gas prices (and higher prices all around as a result), but our American public is as soft as the Europeans. It's very easy for us to send troops halfway around the world to kill people...unless you are serving in the military yourself or have friends or family who are actually deployed, there's zero change to our daily lives. We don't have a draft, rationing, or any kind of skin in the game, and we need that to make sure that the public has buy-in and is motivated to hold leadership accountable. IMO an increase in the price of gas is pretty weak in comparison to having your kids get drafted and sent off to war, but at least it's something.

It's similar to tariffs. It's gonna hurt a bit financially to break that dependence on foreign imports, but in the end it makes us stronger.

quote:

Originally posted by coyotedude:
"Trump Tells Aides He’s Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz".

If the above headline in the 3/30/26 evening edition of the WSJ is credible, what is the whole f'n point of Trump's alledged plan? Leave a dumpster fire for the rest of the world to clean up?

You would have us believe, that, despite President Trump clearly and repeatedly stating his concerns about Iran and nuclear weapons, that you are so ignorant of these reasons and purpose of Operation Epic Fury, that you ask a question like that.

We cannot help you with your TDS. Your affliction is chronic. It does not go into remission, nor does it respond to therapy in any meaningful way.

You are welcome here, but this is Trump Country, man, through and through, and nothing will ever change that, not as long as I draw breath. Please keep this in mind.

Trump is rewriting the Future Not History.

quote:

We cannot help you with your TDS. Your affliction is chronic. It does not go into remission, nor does it respond to therapy in any meaningful way.

Trump country, noted. TDS, no, just a healthy dose of skepticism.

Then, might I suggest taking a measured approach in your commentary, so as to avoid being mistaken for one of the zombies which appear here from time to time?