quote:

Originally posted by lbj:
It's an interesting take on things.
Something does feel different about this presidential election.

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Saturday, August 27, 2016

Conventional wisdom says Donald Trump is going to lose, and lose big.

You see it everywhere in corporate media. Republican Party insiders are bereft and in denial, simultaneously refusing to accept the reality that their party is facing the possibility of catastrophic defeats in races all over the country this fall; indeed, some pundits say Trump marks the beginning of the end of the GOP. The New York Times is running a 24-7 odds placement that puts Hillary Clinton's chances of victory at 86 percent against his 14 percent.

Indeed, if the election were held today, Hillary Clinton would beat Trump by a sizable margin. But that's not the case. Two months is a long time. Old scandals percolate; new ones emerge. Another terrorist attack could prompt voters to turn to the right.

By far the biggest potential game changer, however, are the presidential debates. Conventional wisdom says Hillary Clinton will use her superior command of the facts and her ability to namedrop world leaders to run circles around Trump. But conventional wisdom is often wrong -- just ask unstoppable 2016 Republican presidential nominee Jeb Bush.

I think Donald will trounce Hillary in the debates.

In fact, I can't imagine any scenario in which she doesn't get destroyed.

We like to think that the presidential debates are about issues and facts. They aren't. The winner is the candidate who unleashes the zingiest one-liners and putdowns.

"There you go again."

"Where's the beef?"

"I knew Jack Kennedy; Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy."

You've watched Donald Trump. You've watched Hillary Clinton. Who do you think is better positioned to control the format?

I have no idea whether Hillary Clinton can be quick on her feet or sharp with a nasty one-liner. It doesn't matter. Her brand is experience and competence. She can't get down into the gutter with Trump without undermining her message that she's the adult. She has to look serious and come across as -- there's no other word for it -- boring. Remember what happened to Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush when they tried to out-Trump Trump: they wrecked whatever chances they still had to stop him during the primaries.

A more courtly candidate (Bernie Sanders) might have gone easy on Clinton for fear of being viewed as sexist. That concern won't cross Trump's mind. He'll go after her with the ferocity of Black Friday shoppers chasing down a discount Xbox.

Does Trump have vulnerabilities? Obviously. Clinton's aces in the hole are the temperament argument and his refusal to release his taxes. The secrecy surrounding his tax returns raises suspicions that risk unraveling the fundamental rationale of his candidacy: I'm rich and successful, and I can use the talents I used to get that way to benefit the country. But her vulnerabilities are more serious.

The problem for Clinton is that she has gotten a relatively free ride from journalists and pundits, most of whom will vote for her. Her hypocrisies and inconsistencies comparatively unexamined, she emerges from her primary campaign untested and untempered. The debates offer Trump a juicy opportunity to expose those weaknesses on what promises to be a national stage with record audiences.

If she asks him about his tax returns, he can deflect by demanding the transcripts of her speeches to Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street firms, which she repeatedly refused to release while fending off Bernie. When she goes after him on ethics, he'll pound away on the 30,000 deleted emails.

I understand why Secretary Clinton was reluctant to agree to any debates. Past performance suggests that she isn't a strong debater to begin with. Going against a master reality TV and pro wrestling ringmaster like Donald Trump has got to feel like walking into the Coliseum with nothing but faith in God to protect you from the lion's maw. Trump knows all the tricks: how to deploy comical facial expressions as well as Jim Carrey, how to dominate others using body language, a laser-like ability to identify an opponent's weaknesses and reduce them to rubble via ridicule ("Little Marco"). In an American presidential debate, 15-point white papers don't count for jack. The best entertainer always wins.

During a 2000 debate Al Gore walked right up to George W. Bush, looming over him in what many watchers interpreted as an attempt to intimidate the Texas governor. Bush merely looked up at Gore and nodded, a droll look on his face. Bush was an idiot. Gore was a genius by comparison, a fact he proved by repeatedly drawing upon his superior knowledge of the issues and proposing infinitely more intelligent solutions to problems. But it didn't matter. Voters thought Bush won.

Will Trump's likely victories in the debates be enough to close the current gap between him and Clinton in the polls? Maybe. All I know is, anyone who says it's all over is whistling past the graveyard.

It's all about the debates.

quote:

Originally posted by justjoe:
This is interesting, and good news for Trump, I think. 25% of voters in the Florida primary never voted before. These seem to be people who had given up on the rigged system, and did not believe change for the better was possible. If this mirrors a national trend, Hillary could be in for a big, unpleasant surprise.


https://theconservativetreehou...r-voted-before-ever/

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She can't get down into the gutter with Trump without undermining her message that she's the adult.

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Originally posted by Spokane228:
538 has Trump ascending slow and steady in their poll. I'm sure their models are flawed from day one, but interesting none the less.

The mainstream media is going to have a hard time keeping up its Anti Trump narrative.

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Originally posted by lbj:
Check this out.

http://www.washingtonexaminer....rump/article/2600486

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Media defend aggressive standards for covering Trump

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Originally posted by Mainframe Coder:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Spokane228:
. . .While it's all manufactured spin right now, all of these sites face the reality that, as we get closer to November 8th, they either have to explain why the numbers are magically starting to improve for Trump or they have to explain on November 9th why they were so wrong. By early October, you aren't going to see these outlandish 8-12 point "leads" being reported for Hillary by the left-owned sites. Rasmussen, Zogby, and other credible pollsters, owned by no one, have said for over a month that it's too close right now to call, especially in most battleground states.

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Trump vs. Hillary on Gun Rights

by Dean Rieck
7:00AM MONDAY, AUGUST 29, 2016

Just in case there is any confusion over possible outcomes for the 2016 presidential election, either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton will be our next President and Commander in Chief.

Yes, others will be on the ballot, including Libertarian and Green Party nominees, but they have no chance of winning. So let's not kid ourselves. If you're a gun owner and you're evaluating how to vote, these are the candidates you need to look at closely.

If you're not happy with these choices, you can refuse to vote. But that just lets others, who may be less-informed, make the choice for you. You cannot wash your hands of eleciton results. If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.

So let's take a look at Trump and Clinton and where they stand on your gun rights. The following information is presented without comment. Just the facts. I've summarized the proposals of each as objectively as possible, and you can check the candidates' websites for the full text.

Donald Trump

Statement and Proposals:

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/p...ond-amendment-rights

“The Second Amendment to our Constitution is clear. The right of the people to keep and bear Arms shall not be infringed upon. Period.

“The Second Amendment guarantees a fundamental right that belongs to all law-abiding Americans. The Constitution doesn’t create that right – it ensures that the government can’t take it away. Our Founding Fathers knew, and our Supreme Court has upheld, that the Second Amendment’s purpose is to guarantee our right to defend ourselves and our families. This is about self-defense, plain and simple.

“It’s been said that the Second Amendment is America’s first freedom. That’s because the Right to Keep and Bear Arms protects all our other rights. We are the only country in the world that has a Second Amendment. Protecting that freedom is imperative.”

Enforce the laws on the books by prosecuting violent criminals and empowering law-abiding gun owners to defend themselves.

Fix our broken mental health system by expanding treatment programs and getting violent people off the street.

Defend the rights of gun owners by:

-- Allowing law-abiding people to own the firearm of their choice instead of demonizing popular rifles and standard magazines owned by millions of Americans.

-- Fixing the background check system so that it includes criminal and mental health records and is instant, accurate, and fair.

-- Making concealed carry permits valid in all 50 states because bearing arms is a right, not a privilege.

-- Allowing those in the military to defend themselves by carrying firearms on bases and at recruiting centers.

History:

http://www.ontheissues.org/Don...rump.htm#Gun_Control

Mass shootings are due to a huge mental health problem. (Jan 2016)

No limits on guns; they save lives. (Jan 2016)

Keep enemies of the state away from guns. (Nov 2015)

Make concealed-carry permits valid across all states. (Nov 2015)

Gun-free zones are target practice for sickos. (Oct 2015)

Gun ownership makes US safer, not more dangerous. (Oct 2015)

Mental health more important than gun control. (Oct 2015)

Laws are ineffective in preventing gun violence. (Oct 2015)

Gun violence is inevitable; regulations won't help. (Oct 2015)

Protect the Second Amendment, but address mental health. (Sep 2015)

Take guns from good people & bad people have target practice. (Jul 2015)

A very strong person on the Second Amendment. (Jun 2015)

I am against gun control. (Feb 2011)

Dems and Reps are both wrong on guns. (Jul 2000)

For assault weapon ban, waiting period, & background check. (Jul 2000)

Endorsements:
National Rifle Association, International Defensive Pistol Association

Hillary Clinton

Statement and Proposals:

https://www.hillaryclinton.com...violence-prevention/

“I believe weapons of war have no place on our streets. We may have our disagreements on gun safety regulations, but we should all be able to agree on a few things. If the FBI is watching you for suspected terrorist links, you shouldn’t be able to just go buy a gun with no questions asked. You shouldn’t be able to exploit loopholes and evade criminal background checks by buying online or at a gun show. And yes, if you’re too dangerous to get on a plane, you are too dangerous to buy a gun in America.”

Expand background checks by forcing personal gun transfers to go through a licensed dealer, requiring dealers to deny gun sales for an indefinite period when there is a delay in any background check, use administrative action to lower the threshold for classifying individuals as “dealers.”

Punish businesses for crimes committed with their products by allowing lawsuits against gun dealers and manufacturers and increasing the budget for BATFE to conduct more dealer inspections and encourage more license revocations.

Prohibit more gun purchases by expanding “domestic abuse” laws to include those dating or those convicted of stalking, making straw purchases a federal crime (note: it already is), prohibiting those receiving mental treatment from buying guns, and banning so-called “assault” weapons.

History:

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hil...nton.htm#Gun_Control

I support Brady Bill and closing the Charleston loophole. (Dec 2015)

Arming more people is not appropriate response to terrorism. (Dec 2015)

Reverse gun manufacturer immunity; let them get sued. (Nov 2015)

Don't shield gun manufacturers from lawsuits: I vote that way. (Oct 2015)

Sensible restraints on manufacturer liability & online sales. (Oct 2015)

Gun control advocates see Clinton as an ally. (Jun 2015)

Rein in idea that anybody can have a gun anywhere, anytime. (May 2014)

2000: advocate for national gun registry; 2008: backed off. (May 2014)

Balance lawful gun ownership & keeping guns from criminals. (Apr 2008)

Give local police access to federal gun tracking info. (Apr 2008)

Let states & cities determine local gun laws. (Apr 2008)

Against illegal guns, crack down on illegal gun dealers. (Jan 2008)

Backed off a national licensing registration plan on guns. (Jan 2008)

Get assault weapons & guns off the street. (Jul 2007)

Background check system could prevent Virginia Tech massacre. (Apr 2007)

Congress’ failure at Littleton response inspired Senate run. (Nov 2003)

Keep guns away from people who shouldn’t have them. (Sep 2000)

Limit access to weapons; look for early warning signs. (Sep 2000)

License and register all handgun sales. (Jun 2000)

Tough gun control keeps guns out of wrong hands. (Jul 1999)

Gun control protects our children. (Jul 1999)

Don’t water down sensible gun control legislation. (Jul 1999)

Lock up guns; store ammo separately. (Jun 1999)

Ban kids’ unsupervised access to guns. (Jun 1999)

Get weapons off the streets; zero tolerance for weapons. (Sep 1996)

Voted NO on prohibiting lawsuits against gun manufacturers. (Jul 2005)

Voted NO on banning lawsuits against gun manufacturers for gun violence. (Mar 2004)

Prevent unauthorized firearm use with "smart gun" technology. (Aug 2000)

Endorsements:
Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, the Newtown Action Alliance, and Everytown for Gun Safety – including Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America.

So there you go. The choice is yours. Whatever you decide, please vote your gun rights.

Dean Rieck is Executive Director of Buckeye Firearms Association, a former competitive shooter, NRA Patron Member, #1 NRA Recruiter for 2013, business owner and partner with Second Call Defense.

quote:

While it's all manufactured spin right now, all of these sites face the reality that, as we get closer to November 8th, they either have to explain why the numbers are magically starting to improve for Trump or they have to explain on November 9th why they were so wrong.