quote:

Originally posted by 6guns:
Le Pen's new ad.

https://www.therebel.media/bes...e_will_blow_you_away

Nice.

http://www.breitbart.com/londo...aths-le-pen-victory/

French Scientist Who Predicted Trump and Brexit Says the Maths Adds up for a Le Pen Victory

by CHRIS TOMLINSON28 Apr 2017462



According to French physicist Serge Galam, a victory for populist anti-mass migration presidential candidate Marine Le Pen is entirely possible due to a phenomenon known as differentiated abstention.
Professor Galam, who works as a research director at the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), says the science proves the possibility of a Le Pen victory, SFR reports.

“Differentiated abstention” is the key, according to Galam, who defined the term as: “The gap between the vote intention declared in the polls and the actual vote.”

Galam says it is incredibly unlikely that those who voted for Le Pen in the first round of the French presidential elections last Sunday will vote for Macron, guaranteeing her a sizeable base. He also said it is unlikely all those who oppose Le Pen are guaranteed to support her opponent Emmanuel Macron who is unpopular with far left and conservative voters.

“With less than 50 per cent of voting intentions, Marine Le Pen can end up with more than 50 per cent of the votes cast,” Galam said.

Serge Galam has a history of accurate predictions over the last two years. In June of 2016, he correctly predicted the Leave campaign would win the Brexit vote. In November, he predicted Donald Trump would win the U.S. presidency, and recently predicted that popular French politician Alain Juppé would lose the Republican primary.

At the start of the week, Mr. Macron enjoyed a double-digit lead over Le Pen in the immediate aftermath of the first round election.

However, Macron was outmanoeuvred by Le Pen when she visited workers at a Whirlpool plant scheduled for closure due to outsourcing in Macron’s hometown of Amiens. When Macron arrived hours later he was greeted with boos, whistles, and cries of “Marine for President!”

Pro-traditional family group La Manif pour Tous (“Protest for Everyone”) has also come out against Macron accusing him of having “anti-family” policies and valuing money over people.

Macron, a former investment banker at Rothschilds & Cie Banque, is widely seen as an establishment candidate and is in favour of globalisation. Some, like Breitbart London’s James Delingpole, have compared Macron to former U.S. president Barack Obama with Mr. Delingpole calling him “the living embodiment of the French Deep State”.

The former Socialist Party economy minister is also pro-free trade and free-market, positions which Le Pen criticised Thursday when she joined several fishermen in the early morning. She pledged to take back the sovereignty of French waters by getting France out of the European Union through a referendum on the nation’s membership.

quote:

Originally posted by 6guns:
http://www.breitbart.com/londo...aths-le-pen-victory/

French Scientist Who Predicted Trump and Brexit Says the Maths Adds up for a Le Pen Victory

Boy would I love that. Especially since a week after the French election I'll be traveling to France to meet my wife who is already there and spend two weeks with her friends and family. I simply won't be able to contain my smile. It's not my intention whatever the case to talk politics, but I'll be a joyful feller there is no doubt.

^^^ I hope you get to celebrate quietly....or not.

http://www.breitbart.com/londo...ris-police-attacked/

PICS: Anti-Le Pen Riots in Paris, Police Attacked

by LIAM DEACON


Two police have been injured as riots erupted in Paris, after supporters and opponents of populist presidential candidate Marine Le Pen took to the streets for a May Day workers’ march.
Hooded left wing thugs were filmed throwing petrol bombs at police, who responded with tear gas and stun grenades. At one point, a burning shopping trolley was wheeled towards officers.

Supporters of Ms. Le Pen’s Front National party had held their annual gathering to honour Joan of Arc. Left wing union members and protesters gathered to oppose them.

The violent group attacking police were cordoned off from the rest of the crowd near the Place de la Bastille, The Telegraph reports.


According to the paper, more than 9,000 armed police and soldiers had been drafted in, in anticipation of disturbances.

France’s unions have been divided over who to back in the second round of presidential voting.

Centrist, establishment candidate Emmanuel Macron is likely to introduce fiscally right wing policies not favoured by the unions.

However, some have urged supporters to vote for him to keep out right wing Ms. Le Pen, despite her reaching out to left wingers and advocating protectionist policies.


A banner of one faction of the CGT union reportedly read: “Neither plague nor cholera”, in an apparent reference to urging its members to vote for neither candidate, with Macron viewed by leftists as an enemy of the worker.

Philippe Martinez, CGT leader, said he was in “deep disagreement” with this stance, saying the official union line is “not a single vote for Marine Le Pen”.

“Our slogan is clear. The FN must be beaten for social progress,” said Mr. Martinez.

Kill 'em all

I'm with bossman on this. Rather than the usual (surrender in the face of adversity) the French police need to crack some skulls and make an example of those fools.

The silver lining is that they are helping Le Pen and don't even realize how counter productive their protests are. Does this look familiar?

It do

I'd really like to see the European countries "exit"!

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by 6guns:
http://www.breitbart.com/londo...aths-le-pen-victory/

French Scientist Who Predicted Trump and Brexit Says the Maths Adds up for a Le Pen Victory

Boy would I love that. Especially since a week after the French election I'll be traveling to France to meet my wife who is already there and spend two weeks with her friends and family. I simply won't be able to contain my smile. It's not my intention whatever the case to talk politics, but I'll be a joyful feller there is no doubt.

My wife is making a trip especially to vote for Le Pen.

The debate between Le Pen and Macron is already well underway, but if you care to watch it live, it's still ongoing. Interesting to watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?...zic&feature=youtu.be

The debate has gotten quite a bit heated.

http://www.breitbart.com/londo...-deplorables-moment/

In a moment resembling Hillary Clinton’s infamous “deplorables” comment, Mr. Macron — who currently leads Front National leader Marine Le Pen in the polls — took to the stage at a 10,000-strong rally in Paris to dub Front National the “anti-France party”, branding their supporters “fearmongerers” and “extreme”.

“They’re here. It’s they. It’s they who are our true enemies,” declared Mr. Macron.

“Powerful, organized, skillful, determined,” he said: “You pass them in the streets, in the countryside or on the web, most often well hidden. As hateful as they are cowardly. You know them. The party of the agents of the disaster, the fearmongerers. The French far-right. It’s here”.

The French Presidential favourite was joined on stage by the country’s Energy and Environment Minister Segolene Royal, when he called for “spirit of resistance” — a word often employed by hard-left “antifa” activists and Democrats insistent upon derailing the President Trump administration in the United States.

“They use anger, they propagate lies. For decades they have fanned hatred, fomented divisions, imposed their discourse of discrimination,” Mr. Macron continued.

MARINE LE PEN DEBATE KILLSHOT: ‘France Will Be Led By a Woman, Me or Mrs. Merkel’ (VIDEO)



During the debate today between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, Le Pen ripped into Macron and called him out plainly with some of the most decisive rhetoric we’ve seen yet.

Best line of the night—
Marine Le Pen to Emmanuel Macron:

“Let me tell you what happened – France will be led by a woman, it’ll be either me, or Mrs. Merkel. That’s the truth”

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:
MARINE LE PEN DEBATE KILLSHOT: ‘France Will Be Led By a Woman, Me or Mrs. Merkel’ (VIDEO)

That was my favorite part of the debate. I laughed out loud when she said it. I thought that was pretty good.

quote:

That was my favorite part of the debate. I laughed out loud when she said it. I thought that was pretty good.

Yep.
I don't follow what's going on in France like you do, Balzé Halzé, but it seems like Le Pen is underestimated and gaining ground.

All I know is that if Obummer is for Macron, I'm for Le Pen!
Kiss of death:

Barack Obama Officially Endorses Emmanuel Macron

On April 20, just days before the first round of the French election, former president Obama caused a diplomatic stir when Reuters reported that he had spoken on the phone with French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron - the market-friendly candidate preferred by Europe's establishment. Quick to avoid the perception of yet another foreign interference (who can forget Obama's strong condemnation of the Brexit campaign last summer), in a statement from Kevin Lewis, spokesperson to President Barack Obama, he said that "an endorsement was not the purpose of the call, as President Obama is not making any formal endorsement in advance of the run-off election on Sunday."

Meanwhile, Macron said Obama simply wanted to exchange views about the French presidential campaign and that the ex-president had stressed how important the relationship between the two countries was. Macron's party "En Marche!" said in a statement that "Emmanuel Macron warmly thanked Barack Obama for his friendly call."

* * *

Two weeks later, Obama no longer had any qualms about the optics of interfering in the French election, and moments ago, in a video clip released on Emanual Macron's official twitter feed, Obama officially endorsed the former Rothschild banker Emmanuel Macron.

"I'm not planning to get involved in many elections now that I don't have to run for office, but the French election is very important to the future of France and the values that we care so much about, because the success of France matters to the entire world", Obama said in the clip.

“He appeals to people’s hopes and not their fears,” he said. “And he is committed to a better future for the French people. He has stood up for liberal values. He put forward a vision for the important role that France plays in Europe and around the world.”

Well, Obama did get involved in the Brexit vote, and he did so by endorsing the losing side. So perhaps it's a good thing that the former US president has kept his foreign political involvement to a minimum. Whether his intervention will have an impact remains to be seen, but in any case stating that Emmanuel Macron has "stood up for liberal values" Obama enrosed the 39-year-old candidate, saying "I am supporting Emmanuel Macron to lead you forward.”

“I know that you face many challenges and I want all of my friends in
France to know how much I am rooting for your success" the former president added.

“Because of how important this election is, I also want you to know I am supporting Emmanuel Macron to lead you forward. En march. Vive la France.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/...rses-emmanuel-macron

Having the incompetent radical sticking his fucking meddling nose into that election will make it that much more satisfying when Macron loses.

In Paris, my 6 year old in first grade came home from school today telling me that her teacher was talking about the election and is voting for "the man" because he wants to take care of the people from other countries coming into France. My daughter said to her teacher that is not right, and that France is throwing its history away with him. I was not at all surprised my daughter voiced that opinion in class since she has told her class often that the USA is the best country in the world and that she likes President "Donald". Not sure her French school teacher knows what to think of our daughter.

quote:

Originally posted by Mutiny:
In Paris, my 6 year old in first grade came home from school today telling me that her teacher was talking about the election and is voting for "the man" because he wants to take care of the people from other countries coming into France. My daughter said to her teacher that is not right, and that France is throwing its history away with him. I was not at all surprised my daughter voiced that opinion in class since she has told her class often that the USA is the best country in the world and that she likes President "Donald". Not sure her French school teacher knows what to think of our daughter.

I give this post a thumbs up. Chapeau to your daughter.

PARIS, May 5 (Reuters) - Centrist French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron extended his lead in the polls over his far-right rival Marine Le Pen on Friday, the final day of a tumultuous election campaign that has turned the country's politics upside down.

The election is seen as the most important in France for decades with two diametrically opposed views of Europe and France's place in the world at stake.

The National Front's Le Pen would close borders and quit the euro currency, while independent Macron, who has never held elected office, wants closer European cooperation and an open economy. The candidates of France's two mainstream parties were both eliminated in the first round on April 23.

Four new polls showed Macron on track to win 62 percent of the votes in the second round compared to 38 percent for Le Pen, his best score in a voting survey by a major polling organisation since nine other candidates were eliminated in the first round on April 23. A fifth poll showed him on 61.5 percent.

Pollsters said Macron had been boosted by his performance in a rancorous final televised debate between the two contenders on Wednesday, which the centrist was judged by French viewers to have won, according to two surveys.

Macron's strong showing in the debate, and another poll this week showing his En Marche! (Onwards!) movement likely to emerge as the biggest party in June legislative elections, have lifted the mood among investors worried about the upheaval a Le Pen victory could cause.

http://news.trust.org/item/20170505053834-t4b4o

However....
I still think a Le Pen victory is possible.
Why?
Well.... the poll also found this:

A poll on Friday by Odoxa said a quarter of the French electorate was likely to abstain in Sunday's vote, many of them left-wing voters disappointed after their candidates missed reaching the runoff.

The projected abstention rate would be the second-highest for a presidential election runoff since 1965, underscoring the disillusionment of many voters at the choice they now face.

The turnout for the first round of the election was close to 78 percent.

A poll on Friday showed French voters to be among the most polarised in the European Union, with one in five describing themselves as "extreme" and only about a third as "centrist".

The survey from the Bertelsmann Foundation also showed an unusually high level of dissatisfaction in France with the direction of the country, underscoring the challenge that a new president will face.

http://news.trust.org/item/20170505053834-t4b4o

In other words, the Melanchon voters may just stay home. So.... it doesn't really matter if they would prefer Macron over Le Pen if they don't show up. Le Pen voters WILL be motivated to show up.