France's far right candidate Marine Le Pen and centrist independent Emmanuel Macron have made it into the second round of France’s presidential elections. According to France's Interior Ministry, 46 million people voted in the first stage of the elections which knocked the traditional Right and Left parties out of the running for the first time in 60 years. Macron is leading with 23.8 per cent, followed by Le Pen on 21.6 per cent. Conservative candidate Francois Fillon has 19.9 per cent while far-left Jean-Luc Melenchon on 19.4 per cent. The result will have major implications for Britain and its departure from the EU. Miss Le Pen wants to completely renegotiate France’s relationship with Brussels while Mr Macron wants closer links. Le Pen told her supporters, who were seen waving flags saying ‘Marine Presidente' inscribed on them said: 'It is time to liberate the French people from the arrogant [political] elite.' Macron has praised his supporters for a campaign that ‘changed the course of our country.’

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new...French-election.html

^^^ Well, that doesn't look like squat for a difference. In fact that kinda looks like Marine could pull it off. I guess we're waiting to see how many of Fillon's people actually will vote for Macron.

Sorry, but the mainstream parties and the media will rally around Macron and Le Pen will go down to defeat. Maybe not the 82/18 margin her father lost by in 2002 to Chirac, but she will lose.

quote:

Originally posted by Blackmore:
Sorry, but the mainstream parties and the media will rally around Macron and Le Pen will go down to defeat. Maybe not the 82/18 margin her father lost by in 2002 to Chirac, but she will lose.

Probably by at least 20%.

quote:

Originally posted by Blackmore:
Sorry, but the mainstream parties and the media will rally around Macron and Le Pen will go down to defeat. Maybe not the 82/18 margin her father lost by in 2002 to Chirac, but she will lose.

Gee this sounds vaguely familiar... hmmmm.... where did i hear this recently???

quote:

Originally posted by Elk Hunter:

quote:

I have no experience with Germany, but I doubt it is US like.

I have a fair amount of experience with Germany.

And, no, it is not much like the US. Gun control is 1000x worse than here. It has gotten a lot worse in the years since I was stationed there. This idiot gubbermint has virtually killed the part of the Status of Forces Agreement that allowed US military to buy guns in the PX or in gun shops run by the military. They were called Rod and Gun clubs. If one possessed a valid German hunting license one could go to virtually any gun store (not many of them) and purchase a weapon. For non-officers it required a "permit" signed by the CO to buy one at the rod and gun club, but AIR, no such was required to buy one on the economy,

A cousin and his wife live in Hanau, and they are both AVID hunters. He has a collection of guns, or did a couple decades ago, which included pistols. But he was worried that the rules would change and they would take his hand guns. Don't know it it has.

May be wrong here, but as I understand it, it is now impossible for US forces to buy guns in Germany. May be wrong, but that is my recollection from several years ago when obummer signed that last SOFA.

You are incorrect. I am currently stationed in Germany. US Service members and civilians covered in the SOFA agreement can own firearms, but they have to comply with German Law (with some mods). Both Soldier and DA civilians can go through a modified form of the Hunter's Course and the Sport Shooter's safety course and can own handguns, rifles and shotguns. The gun control here is similar to, but a few steps tighter in some cases than the more restrictive US states. For example on the tighter side a sport shooter can only purchase ammo in the calibers they have stamps for on their weapons license, but a Hunter can buy whatever ammo they chose. On the loser side, You can purchase the semi auto only version of the G-36, something you cannot purchase in NY. They also restrict handloading, something that we haven't seen in the states. I am told that silencers are readily available, but I haven't seen any.

According to the US run sport shooting class I took last year the SOFA agreement was changed over a decade ago after a US Service member shot up a school and subsequent investigation found that the US Forces in Germany did not have a good accounting of the personally owned Weapons or their owners. I don't recall the DTG or location of the shooting. But, it was before the previous POTUS.

As for your cousin, unless they changed the laws while I was TDY, a German Hunter can still possess handguns (of specific types).

Is there really a "political right" in Europe that has any power? It seems like regardless of which country you look at there is a far left party, left party, and a centrist party that gets labeled as political right.

quote:

Originally posted by stickman428:
Is there really a "political right" in Europe that has any power? It seems like regardless of which country you look at there is a far left party, left party, and a centrist party that gets labeled as political right.

The US definitions of left and right do not apply in Europe.

There is no party equivalent to the US Republican party or what a US conservative/libertarian would like the republican party to be in Europe.

Small government, lower taxes, free speech, free markets, liberty - I don't know of any candidates for office in European countries running on that sort of platform.

The best thing US citizens can do is to continue to reject left wing fascism here in the states at every opportunity. Leadership by example.

quote:

Originally posted by Deqlyn:

quote:

Originally posted by Blackmore:
Sorry, but the mainstream parties and the media will rally around Macron and Le Pen will go down to defeat. Maybe not the 82/18 margin her father lost by in 2002 to Chirac, but she will lose.

Gee this sounds vaguely familiar... hmmmm.... where did i hear this recently???

If you'd like to make a bet, I'll take it. I've been following European politics for years. It doesn't work like it does here.

LePen pulled 5% in Paris. She's unlikely to top 6-7% in the second ballot, unfortunately.

-Rob

quote:

Originally posted by BurtonRW:

quote:

Originally posted by Deqlyn:

quote:

Originally posted by Blackmore:
Sorry, but the mainstream parties and the media will rally around Macron and Le Pen will go down to defeat. Maybe not the 82/18 margin her father lost by in 2002 to Chirac, but she will lose.

Gee this sounds vaguely familiar... hmmmm.... where did i hear this recently???

If you'd like to make a bet, I'll take it. I've been following European politics for years. It doesn't work like it does here.

LePen pulled 5% in Paris. She's unlikely to top 6-7% in the second ballot, unfortunately.

-Rob

And believe it or not, the "conservative" candidate usually wins Paris resoundingly.

The fact of the matter is the electorate in France is very different than ours here in the US. And don't forget that they have a straight popular vote.

I'm still keeping my fingers crossed!

quote:

Originally posted by BamaJeepster:

quote:

Originally posted by stickman428:
Is there really a "political right" in Europe that has any power? It seems like regardless of which country you look at there is a far left party, left party, and a centrist party that gets labeled as political right.

The US definitions of left and right do not apply in Europe.

There is no party equivalent to the US Republican party or what a US conservative/libertarian would like the republican party to be in Europe.

Small government, lower taxes, free speech, free markets, liberty - I don't know of any candidates for office in European countries running on that sort of platform.

Yep.
Read BansheeOne's post at the top of page 3 of this thread for a discussion of left and right in Europe.

It's a shame, but there isn't a party that I could really identify with. At least Le Pen realizes that France and Europe will not survive much more of this open immigration which is in reality a slow-motion conquest by invasion.

On economic issues, however.... she's not so good.

quote:

Originally posted by Tonyny:


: if you come to our country, don't expect that you will be taken care of, treated (by the health system) and that your children will be educated for free.'

'That's finished now, it's the end of playtime,' she added.

That's it. I am officially coming out as gay. I must be, 'cause that last line made me fall in love with Le Pen.

Sound familiar?:

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2...results-come-in.html

Macron married his childhood sweetheart. Who happened to be his 39 y.o. high school teacher when he was 15.

Now he is 39 and she is 64. His wife has a son older than Macron.

http://www.powerlineblog.com/a...-emmanuel-macron.php

as the article says:

What does it all mean? Probably nothing. But it is interesting that the most middle-of-the-road candidate surviving in the French election has a rather eccentric history.

It would require some radical rethinking in Europe. The influence of Burke, Locke and Hobbs is very limited in continental Europe. Hegelian thought is stronger on the continent.

Switzerland is perhaps the exception with strong Calvin influence. It's also still relatively homogeneous compared to the rest of Europe.

In Germany the FDP (Freie Demokratische Partei)- Free Democratic Party, if I recall correctly, is the closest to what we in the U.S. would call a conservative party (maybe also a tad libertarian, but I'm probably wrong here). But this party may have broken the 10 pct vote getting barrier only a few times since 1950.

The EU Parliament is owned by the Bolsheviks. And it's laws seem to have more impact in the EU member states than even I realized, based on some conversation with my UK friend. Banshee one can probably elaborate more.

Never say never. If LePen manages to win, well....

What Marine Le Pen Is Really About
By Bruce Walker

Charles Krauthammer is a very bright guy who is nearly always right on the issues, but his argument that a Le Pen victory in the French presidential election would be a disaster for Europe is utterly wrong-headed. France, he said on Fox News last week, is the lynchpin of modern Europe and is necessary to prevent a return to the sort of nationalism that plagued the continent during the last century.

The nationalism he is referring to was the hyper-aggressive attitude of Germany, Italy, and Russia – whose misconduct is well known – and also of Poland, whose arbitrary annexation of Vilnius and grab of Teschen during the partition of Czechoslovakia needlessly disrupted Eastern Europe. The problem then, as now, is not "nationalism," which is neither good nor bad in itself, but rather aggressive nationalism that threatens neighbors.

The resistance the peoples of occupied Europe used to defy and distract the Nazis in lands like Poland, Norway, Holland, and France was also nationalism – good nationalism, which asserted the traditional values of those peoples in opposition to the new European order the Nazis were proclaiming.

The problem in dealing with the totalitarian threats in the last century was not excessive nationalism, but insufficient nationalism. When peoples asserted their rights as a separate nation, though occupied and threatened, these peoples brought down evil empires.

The Poles defied first the Nazis and then the Soviets, and the success of Solidarity as well as Pope John Paul II as the "Polish pope" broke the back of the Warsaw Pact. The agitation of the Baltic States, actually incorporated into the Soviet Union, weakened that whole empire.

When a people views itself as having a unique nation that is its own and a culture connected directly to that nation, then the people will defend itself. A perfect example of this in practice is Israel, which, without a strong national identity and a value system based upon the history of the Jewish people, would doubtless be swallowed into the horrific mess that is most of West Asia.

What we ought to want is a Europe filled with variations of Israel, seeking peace and eschewing aggression but demanding the safety of the people from internal as well as external threats. If France began to behave like Israel, dealing in a no-nonsense manner with anyone who threatened its people or its right to exist with a unique culture, then Europe would be stronger, not weaker. Every nation that, in its own way, followed suit would strengthen, not weaken, Europe.

What about the economic argument? If France withdrew from the European Union, would the sky fall in? Six European nations, including France, formed the Common Market, which was in many ways the beginning of the European Union. Nothing would prevent France from entering into a series of mutually advantageous trade agreements, and surely she would.

That does not mean creating an empire of bureaucrats and politicians whose alliance is to a super-national quasi-state. The problems today of ending the European Union are similar to the problems of super-banks in 2009 – it is "too big to fail" – which is to say the mess this union has created can be ended only with some disruption and discomfort, but that does not mean that the result over time will not be much better.

The sovereign debt problems in much of Europe have been aggravated by the European Union. The two leading creditors of sovereign debt in Greece, one of the worst offenders, are the European Central Bank, a creature of the European Union, and the European Union itself. If the European Union had not been propping up the bad behavior of successive Greek governments, Greece would have been forced to face and fix its debt problem, which is to say to do what it ought to do.

Supra-national organizations nearly always fail, with NATO during the Cold War being, perhaps, the only exception. The United Nations is a monstrosity, the League of Nations was a farce, and the European Union is an idea whose time is past. Nations are real things connected to culture and history and values and interests. The peaceful assertion of that culture and history and those values and interests is not a threat to peace, but the best promise of peace.

http://www.americanthinker.com...is_really_about.html

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
Sound familiar?:

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2...results-come-in.html

I was watching the news when this story led, the next piece was a talking head suggesting that all of the other parties were campaigning against Le Pen and her "violent" far right party. I guess the irony was lost on the network.

Also FWIW, the press repeatedly refer to Macron as a centrist when he was a member of the socialist party at one point and his policies have changed little.

Le Pen's new ad.

https://www.therebel.media/bes...e_will_blow_you_away

Damn. That was a pretty good.