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When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2) Login/Join 
Ammoholic
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quote:
23,000 flu deaths, and not a peep from any of the alarmists- because it's normal. Day in, day out, for as long as Man has walked on this rock, influenza has killed a percentage of the human population. Normal. Unfortunate, but normal. Now, here comes a bug that has killed a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a percent of that, and OHMYGOD!!!!!!!!!1111111

I really am trying to be careful, but I am reminded of what a fellow I used to work with would occasionally say, “What the heck, everybody’s gotta die of something.”
I sometimes think that our culture has a messed up and unhealthy view of death. It is all part of the process. I strive to “Be careful in life, don’t be stupid, but also don’t be so afraid of your shadow that you never live.” Right now, with the media’s active encouragement, we as a society are not following that program.
 
Posts: 7216 | Location: Lost, but making time. | Registered: February 23, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Oh stewardess,
I speak jive.
Picture of 46and2
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My cousin in Dallas called today to check the status of his official test.

Any day now, they said.

He *seems* fine.
 
Posts: 25613 | Registered: March 12, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of pulicords
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If this were an "ordinary" seasonal "flu" or "just a cold" with an expected death rate of 20,000, the doubters have a point. But it isn't. A death rate of 750,000 to a MILLION or more Americans over the next 12 months is far more serious. While COVID-19 and "a cold" are both viruses, so are Ebola and rabies. All viruses can't be looked at or dealt with the same.

I'd love to be wrong, but this country really dropped the ball by not examining the harm done to it by the 1918 "Spanish Flu" pandemic. We lost more citizens to that "flu" than were killed during WWI, WWII, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War combined.

A couple of days ago, I learned about the personal experiences of a friend/former co-worker, who'd been involved in the Ebola epidemic which occurred in Liberia in 2014, when he was assigned to provide training to members of their military as an officer with the USMC (Reserves). There's differences between this virus and the one we're dealing with, both in terms of transmission rate and lethality (Ebola is roughly fatal 60% of the time and rabies kills nearly 100% of those who become infected), but the similarities regarding social disorder, and control are there too. Some pretty horrific stuff (like isolating/sacrificing a suburb of 28,000, so as to protect a city of over a million residents), which is worth learning about, but I'll leave for another time.

What I wanted to do today is to draw SF members attention to "Just the News", a daily report by John Solomon. John Solomon has done some outstanding reporting on the weaponization of our national intelligence and law enforcement organizations to remove President Trump from office under a fake "Russian Collusion" narrative. His blog is well worth reading and today he provides an excellent narrative about what we're facing and why our situation came about. I'm not a physician or epidemiologist, but I took the time last February to attend a presentation by a very respected medical expert on this topic (before the situation in China became well known) and his position on the situation coincided with the information Mr. Solomon provided today. It's worth the time to read this, noting that (with regards to the topic) it's about the medical issue and not a political examination.

https://justthenews.com/politi...al-trials-after-past


"I'm not fluent in the language of violence, but I know enough to get around in places where it's spoken."
 
Posts: 10281 | Location: The Free State of Arizona | Registered: June 13, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
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quote:
Originally posted by 46and2:
My cousin in Dallas called today to check the status of his official test.

Any day now, they said.

He *seems* fine.
. My nieces husband had his COVID test 11 days ago in Denver suburbs, still waiting. He is 35 no co morbidity and is fairly sick.
 
Posts: 2714 | Registered: March 22, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Still finding my way
Picture of Ryanp225
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quote:
Originally posted by PowerSurge:
quote:
Originally posted by Ryanp225:
Thanks Para.
I was starting to feel like I was the only one thinking this as I find that everyone around me is fully on board the panic train.

Not everyone. There’s a lot of us that have been calling this a panic from day 1. And I think those that are panicking watch too much news. I watched about 10 minutes yesterday and it was non stop Wuhan Flu panic.

I hear ya.
I have to talk my wife and fil down from the ledge every time they decide to watch the news. I keep telling them to turn it off but it's like crack to them. I never knew how damaging and how fast the propaganda leeches into someone's brain if you let it. They walk around parroting whatever talking points they heard until I can them back with reason and logic.
 
Posts: 10851 | Registered: January 04, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I think it was here that someone posted the percentage rates of transmission based on the types of contact. Could someone point me to that info?



I'm alright it's the rest of the world that's all screwed up!
 
Posts: 1376 | Location: Southern Michigan | Registered: May 30, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Originally posted by slosig:
...but I am reminded of what a fellow I used to work with would occasionally say, “What the heck, everybody’s gotta die of something.”
.

Wise words, I suppose until you see someone desperately gasping for each and every breath with every bit of their strength ( they are so weak ,they can't even speak), like it's their last....if you ever want to see fear/panic in someone's eyes...well there you go.
 
Posts: 1313 | Location: Idaho | Registered: October 21, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of maladat
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Originally posted by mrw:
When I bring up that COVID-19 is just a nasty flu with a higher death rate for elderly people hose me well here are figures that support Para:

In the USA 2017 -2018 flu cases were 45,000,000, flu deaths 61,000. Flu death rate 2017- 2018 0.1% mostly all elderly over 65. Flu is also highly contagious. So far in USA COVID-19 73,500 cases, COVID-19 deaths 1,065. COVID-19 death rate 1.4% mostly all elderly over 65. In order for COVID-19 to catch flu cases we would need 161,000 COVID-19 new cases per day every day until December 31, current new cases per day is 13,555. In order for COVID-19 to catch flu deaths we would need 215 COVID-19 new deaths per day every day until December 31, current new cases per day is 241. COVID-19 is not in the same mass killing league as influenza and will be gone in a month or so. Flu R0 is around 1.3 COVID-19 is around RO 2.0, about the same.


The problem with this sort of analysis is that rate of infection is not constant.

Just like with the flu at the beginning of flu season, the number of new cases every day is increasing rapidly.

 
Posts: 6320 | Location: CA | Registered: January 24, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Lawyers, Guns
and Money
Picture of chellim1
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quote:
Originally posted by midwest guy:
quote:
Originally posted by 46and2:
My cousin in Dallas called today to check the status of his official test.
Any day now, they said.
He *seems* fine.
. My nieces husband had his COVID test 11 days ago in Denver suburbs, still waiting. He is 35 no co morbidity and is fairly sick.

What the hell? We need to do this quicker.
We were supposed to have a 'drive-through' testing place set up nearby. It's been put on hold.
https://callnewspapers.com/sou...oday-placed-on-hold/



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor
 
Posts: 24868 | Location: St. Louis, MO | Registered: April 03, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Run Silent
Run Deep

Picture of Patriot
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I don't remember hospitals needing refrigerated tractor trailers to place the dead bodies with regular flu...does anyone else?


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Posts: 7102 | Location: South East, Pa | Registered: July 04, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of lastmanstanding
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Originally posted by Ronin1069:
quote:
Originally posted by lastmanstanding:
If Hillary were president we wouldn't even be talking about a virus this would be non existent.


You cannot really believe that.

I do. Change my mind. They would be treating this the same way they treated the swine flu when Obama was in office. Like it barely existed. Where were all the medical experts elbowing each other to get out of their way so they could get their 15 minutes in when the swine flu was killing thousands?

Case in point. The WHO declared the swine flu to be unstoppable. Unstoppable, think about that. That's real everybody is going to die from this ringing the alarm bell talk from the World Health Organization!

Now think about if the CDC or the WHO came out and said that about this current virus. It would be more than just a major headline the civil defense system would be blasting it over the tornado warning sirens in every town across the country.

This is how CNN handled the warning from WHO when they declared the Swine flu unstoppable.



"Fixed fortifications are monuments to mans stupidity" - George S. Patton
 
Posts: 8709 | Location: Minnesota | Registered: June 17, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Semper Fi - 1775
Picture of Ronin1069
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^^^^^^^^^
Originally posted by lastmanstanding:
If Hillary were president we wouldn't even be talking about a virus this would be non existent.

Originally posted by Ronin1069:
You cannot really believe that

Originally posted by lastmanstanding:
I do. Change my mind. They would be treating this the same way they treated the swine flu when Obama was in office. Like it barely existed. Where were all the medical experts elbowing each other to get out of their way so they could get their 15 minutes in when the swine flu was killing thousands?
________________________________________________________________


Originally posted by Ronin1069:
The World did not shut down because of Swine Flu.

The entire f'ing WORLD has shut down because of Covid-19.

That is not a Hillary/Trump thing.


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ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
 
Posts: 12445 | Location: Belly of the Beast | Registered: January 02, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of lastmanstanding
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Apologies on the size of the pic. Not sure how to resize it. Confused


"Fixed fortifications are monuments to mans stupidity" - George S. Patton
 
Posts: 8709 | Location: Minnesota | Registered: June 17, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Nullus Anxietas
Picture of ensigmatic
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And again: Deaths are not the thing. They're a[b/] thing, but not [b]the thing. Healthcare system overload is the thing. But healthcare system overload is abstract for many, perhaps most, people. "Death," OTOH, not so much.

I wish they'd even stop concentrating so much on the rise in new cases. That matters even less than the number of deaths attributable to Covid-19. What I wish they're report on, generate stats for, is the rate and duration of hospitalizations, and current rate of hospital bed and ICU utilization. Those are the important numbers, IMHO.

quote:
Originally posted by lastmanstanding:
Apologies on the size of the pic. Not sure how to resize it. Confused

You can't resize it unless you "own" it. (I.e.: Have it on your storage or storage you control.)



"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
"If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher
 
Posts: 26031 | Location: S.E. Michigan | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Run Silent
Run Deep

Picture of Patriot
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This video and the article are from ER doctors...not POLITICIANS...

They are on the front lines...so why would they lie???

Why would the things they say not be true?

Article





_____________________________
Pledge allegiance or pack your bag!
The problem with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money. - Margaret Thatcher
Spread my work ethic, not my wealth
 
Posts: 7102 | Location: South East, Pa | Registered: July 04, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Sigforum K9 handler
Picture of jljones
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Originally posted by maladat:


The problem with this sort of analysis is that rate of infection is not constant.

Just like with the flu at the beginning of flu season, the number of new cases every day is increasing rapidly.


LOL.

I'll ask just one more time. How many cases of this flu were in the United States in December, how many recovered, and how many died.

Until you have those numbers, your argument is weak at best. This flu did not start three weeks ago in this country, and anyone who thinks as much is a fool.




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"It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it works out for them"



 
Posts: 37297 | Location: Logical | Registered: September 12, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Never miss an opportunity
to be Batman!
Picture of jsbcody
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quote:
I don't remember hospitals needing refrigerated tractor trailers to place the dead bodies with regular flu...does anyone else?


How many bodies are in those refrigerated tractor trailers? We get the graphs showing all the new cases with people testing positive but where are the numbers for people being hospitalized? Where are the numbers for people being in ICU due to Covid-19? When they throw out the number of new cases, they present those numbers as if those people are all in a hospital ICU. As of 3/26/2020, we have around 1000 reported deaths from COVID-19 for the whole USA.

Due to calls for disturbances, I have had some conversations with ER Charge Nurses. Per them, they are using up PPEs while dealing with people who have a mild cold or flu or dopers looking for pain killers. The patients come in one day demanding Covid-19 tests but then don't fit the criteria on the ER checklist, so no testing is done. So the same people come back the next day and answer the questions so they now match the criteria and get the tests.
 
Posts: 4101 | Location: St.Louis County MO | Registered: October 13, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Peripheral Visionary
Picture of tigereye313
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https://www.dailywire.com/news...ically-revises-model

quote:

MARCH 26TH, 2020
Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.

Author and former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson broke down the bombshell report via Twitter on Thursday morning (view Twitter thread below).

“This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the [Imperial College] authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths — and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID,” started Berenson.

“He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick,” he wrote.

To put this number in context, there are usually thousands of deaths from the flu each year in the U.K. Here is some information from the University of Oxford on deaths ranging from 600-13,000 per year:

Influenza (flu) is a very common, highly infectious disease caused by a virus. It can be very dangerous, causing serious complications and death, especially for people in risk groups. In rare cases flu can kill people who are otherwise healthy. In the UK it is estimated that an average of 600 people a year die from complications of flu. In some years it is estimated that this can rise to over 10,000 deaths (see for example this UK study from 2013, which estimated over 13,000 deaths resulting from flu in 2008-09). Flu leads to hundreds of thousands of GP visits and tens of thousands of hospital stays a year.

Berenson continued: “Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased — which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize — which in turn implies it is less dangerous.”

“Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within ‘two to three weeks’ — last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary,” the former reporter highlighted.

“One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* — the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work,” stressed Berenson. “Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US — I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.”

Ferguson’s change of tune comes days after Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta criticized the professor’s model.

“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” Gupta said, according to the Financial Times.

Professor Gupta led a team of researchers at Oxford in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.

If her model is accurate, fewer than one in a thousand who’ve been infected with COVID-19 become sick enough to need hospitalization, leaving the vast majority with mild cases or free of symptoms.

In other words, Ferguson’s highly influential initial model was off by orders of magnitude





 
Posts: 11429 | Location: Texas | Registered: January 29, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of BansheeOne
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Originally posted by BansheeOne:
The way the South Korean rate is approaching the one percent seen in the Diamond Princess, which has been pointed out to be a controlled if small population with no doubt about undiscovered cases, I wouldn't be surprised if this turns out to be the the general CFR given appropriate medical care.


Well, South Korea has now gone well beyond the one-percent mark and reached 1.4 again, about the same CFR currently seen in the US. Of course that's still not final, but with the curve of active cases now dropping as more people recover than the 60-150 new infections still found each day with their extensive testing, seems this bug is a bit more aggressive than judged from the small Diamond Princess sample.

Spain and France look bad. A team of German doctors visiting Strasbourg reported that patients over 80 are no longer put on ventilators but only sedated to ease their suffering before death. Then there was this story:

quote:
Spanish Military Finds Dead Bodies And Seniors 'Completely Abandoned' In Care Homes

March 24, 20201:08 PM ET

The Spanish military has found older residents of some care homes "completely abandoned" and even "dead in their beds," Defense Minister Margarita Robles said in a television interview on Monday.

They were found as soldiers disinfected and provided emergency health care services this week to residential homes across the country. Robles did not give an exact figure for the number of dead bodies found by Spanish soldiers.

With more than 39,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 2,800 deaths as of Tuesday, Spain is the second hardest-hit country in Europe.

On Tuesday, 514 new deaths were registered in a 24-hour period, the worst increase since the outbreak began. Retirement homes have been particularly affected.

Last week, one privately owned home in Madrid reported 20 deaths and 75 infections, claiming it didn't have adequate material to take care of the sick residents and dead bodies.

While the usual protocol in Spanish nursing homes is to put the body of a deceased person in cold storage until a funeral service picks it up, bodies are now being left in beds until properly equipped staff can remove them.

Speaking in a television interview, Robles said staff in some centers had left the nursing homes after cases of COVID-19 were detected. Residents were abandoned to take care of themselves, even though some were sick and in serious condition.

The defense minister said the government will take action against those responsible. "We will be completely relentless and forceful with the kind of treatment elderly residents receive in these centers," Robles said. "I know that a vast majority [of centers] are fulfilling their obligations."

Meanwhile, Spanish prosecutors have launched an investigation into the incidents. In Spain, around 19% of the population is older than 65; the country has one of the longest life expectancies in the world.

[...]


https://www.npr.org/sections/c...andoned-in-care-home

Italy - 8,215 : 80,539 = 10.2 %

US - 1,100 : 75,665 = 1.5 %

Spain - 4,145 : 56,197 = 7.4 %

Germany - 239 : 43,646 = 0.5 %

France - 1,331 : 25,233 = 5.3 %

Switzerland - 191 : 11,712 = 1.6 %

UK - 477 : 9,849 = 4.7 %

South Korea - 131 : 9,241 = 1.4 %

Netherlands - 434 : 7,431 = 5.8 %

Austria - 49 : 6,703 = 0.7 %

Belgium - 220 : 6,235 = 3.5 %

[Canada, Portugal, Norway]

Sweden - 71 : 2,840 = 2.5 %
 
Posts: 2465 | Location: Berlin, Germany | Registered: April 12, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie
Picture of Balzé Halzé
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quote:
Originally posted by pulicords:
If this were an "ordinary" seasonal "flu" or "just a cold" with an expected death rate of 20,000, the doubters have a point. But it isn't. A death rate of 750,000 to a MILLION or more Americans over the next 12 months is far more serious.


Obviously that would be worse. But that isn't going to happen and was never going to happen in any case.

It's just so disappointing to see so many buy into this "global warming" type hysteria. And that's what it is.

If you ever wondered what it's like to be one of these climate change zealots--the belief unequivocally that the world will end in 12 years, mass extinctions, the planet under water, etc--and you are one of these people buying into this millions of Americans dead scenario unless we destroy the economy and lock ourselves indoors for months, well now you know.

But why wouldn't you believe that, right? After all, that's what all the experts on tv are telling us. And the experts are never wrong.


~Alan

Acta Non Verba
NRA Life Member (Patron)
God, Family, Guns, Country

Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan

 
Posts: 31166 | Location: Elv. 7,000 feet, Utah | Registered: October 29, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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