quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:
Cases rising (Of course case are rising. More testing is occurring) while the death rate is dropping proves that herd immunity works and shutting down was a mistake.

From chellim1's post we have the biggest lie of omission we're not hearing from the media, our experts, or the lying politicos....

quote:

On Saturday, Johns Hopkins University said the total number of cases in the country had risen to 2,505,593.

While some of the rise was down to more extensive testing, the rate of positive tests in some areas is also increasing.

Health officials estimate the true number of cases is likely to be 10 times higher than the confirmed total. The US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) said up to 20 million Americans may have been infected.

My bet, the number of cases is even higher than CDC estimates it is (how many times has a government agency ever been right on their estimates). In the meantime, the media is telling all of us to pee our bloomers, hide inside, and wear a hazmat suit everywhere we go because of this recent uptick in 'confirmed' cases in a few states, when the reality is the virus has spread much, much, farther then anyone is admitting. Though a huge lie of omission likely to insure the sheep don't stampede, this is also an enormous positive because it 1) means the mortality rate of this virus is substantially lower than we've been told, and 2) herd immunity 'is' occurring in large numbers (which should have been the goal in the first place).

One thing has amazed me throughout this thread. The intellect and reasoning here is exponentially higher than that found in our self-acclaimed betters in government or the media.

This would suggest that increase in testing, alone, does not fully account for the increase in recorded cases in Texas.



From:
https://sph.uth.edu/dept/bads/covid19-dashboard

I’m afraid college football is not going to happen!

^^^ And if true that graph proves even more firmly that herd immunity works and also that this virus isn’t as fearsome as they say it is. Think about it.

If it didn’t there would be people laying in hospital beds out in the hospital parking lots all over the country right now. Especially in states like Texas, Florida and Georgia.

You guys take it easy on bendable, please. bendable has his own way of expressing himself but he's a good guy and he is welcome in this forum, always.

My county continues to have a low hospitalization rate (2.44%) and low fatality rate (1.84%). Additionally, we have adequate bed space and ICU bed space so we're taking in COVID patients from other counties in the Houston metropolitan area (87% of COVID beds aren't residents).

Additionally, 11.2% of all of our COVID tests have been performed in the last week (i.e. testing increasing). Only negative is that percent of positive tests went from 6.5% to 7.3%.

I see that zipriderson is nearing completion of his one-act play, Six Degrees of Incubation. I hear that the plan was to open it off-off-Broadway, but it turns out that no one is willing to audition, since each of them may have been in contact with someone who may have been in contact with someone who may have been in contact with someone who may have a head cold.

I do hear, though, that Kevin Bacon is available...

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:
^^^ And if true that graph proves even more firmly that herd immunity works and also that this virus isn’t as fearsome as they say it is. Think about it.

If it didn’t there would be people laying in hospital beds out in the hospital parking lots all over the country right now. Especially in states like Texas, Florida and Georgia.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/

That's the "Texas Medical Center," the main huge hospital complex near downtown (about 20 hospitals) in Houston.

Also... herd immunity is what happens when almost no one gets a disease anymore because almost everyone has already had it (or been vaccinated, or otherwise had immunity conferred). If you have a bunch more (or even just as many) people getting the disease all of a sudden, herd immunity isn't doing anything for you yet.

.......And no where near everyone has been tested. If you could test everyone in the country at once, there will be millions and millions of people that will test positive (cases). Most people could have already had COVID. The fact is the hospitalizations aren’t as high as people said they would be RIGHT NOW.

Your doom and gloom charts aren’t working. Later. Time to go dine with a lady friend of mine in a packed restaurant.

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:
Also... herd immunity is what happens when almost no one gets a disease anymore because almost everyone has already had it (or been vaccinated, or otherwise had immunity conferred). If you have a bunch more (or even just as many) people getting the disease all of a sudden, herd immunity isn't doing anything for you yet.

Read my last post that addresses just this. Herd immunity is happening (the CDC numbers and commentary all but prove it) virtually behind the scenes of all the gloom and doom, sky is falling, BS.

quote:

Originally posted by bigdeal:

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:
Also... herd immunity is what happens when almost no one gets a disease anymore because almost everyone has already had it (or been vaccinated, or otherwise had immunity conferred). If you have a bunch more (or even just as many) people getting the disease all of a sudden, herd immunity isn't doing anything for you yet.

Read my last post that addresses just this. Herd immunity is happening (the CDC numbers and commentary all but prove it) virtually behind the scenes of all the gloom and doom, sky is falling, BS.

Even if 50 million people in the US have already had it, that probably isn't enough for meaningful herd immunity (but would be solid evidence that we probably aren't going to end up with a healthcare crisis).

The required immune proportion of the population for herd immunity to kick in depends on the disease in question, but for the flu, for example, it's something like 50-70% (the 50% number in the article is based on R0=2, although the article also lists the R0 for flu as being 2-3. R0=3 gives a 67% threshold). For something like measles, which is horrifically contagious, it is more like 90%.

https://www.quantamagazine.org...d-immunity-20180205/

We can do a back-of-the-envelope sanity check on the herd immunity percentage for flu by considering that in the US, about 40% of people get vaccinated each year, and about 10-20% of the population gets the flu each year, meaning at the end of a typical flu season, around 50-60% of the population has been either vaccinated or infected.

Doesn't the theory of herd immunity rely heavily on certainty of antibodies preventing recurrence over the long term? IOW not just a few weeks or months?

"Herd Immunity" would be 70%-80% of the population already had it.

Everything now is about justifying "What they did" not what the virus "Is Doing".

quote:

Originally posted by Georgeair:
Doesn't the theory of herd immunity rely heavily on certainty of antibodies preventing recurrence over the long term? IOW not just a few weeks or months?

Yes, if immunity is gone after a few weeks or months, herd immunity never really has a chance to build up (unless most people get vaccines every few weeks or something).

That's still a possibility, but I don't think there's any particularly convincing evidence that it is the case. Several of the studies that have been referenced as suggesting that only suggest it as a result of wild misinterpretation of what the study actually says and means.

I understand what you mean when you say formatting , now.

Where as I have a hard time reading tightly configured paragraphs,

Especially on the Android phone,

You have difficulty with
proccesing my spaced out version of the same words.

I gotta go figure out how I can remedy this.
Give me some time.

B.t.w.
I took no offence ,
No oatmeal got whizzed on.

As long as we are expressing
Disconcerting posting practices,
I disagree
with extensive post script tag lines, anything more than 5 lines , (to me)
Is a book, not a sentiment.

"No oatmeal got whizzed on."


That would make an awesome CUT

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:
Even if 50 million people in the US have already had it, that probably isn't enough for meaningful herd immunity (but would be solid evidence that we probably aren't going to end up with a healthcare crisis).

But that's kind of the point I was trying to make. We have no idea how many people have encountered the bug, but we do know its a big number, and the spread is continuing. However, at the same time, the death rates are going down and the hospitalization rates are either going down or staying well within manageable levels. As such, more lockdown and restrictions BS is not where we should be headed. As has been discussed ad nauseum, maintain protections for at risk groups (we know who they are at this point), while letting everyone else get back to normal. Will that cause the virus to spread? Of course it will, but its already spreading as we speak without collapsing the system. If hospitalizations start to spike up significantly, curtail some aspects to try and mitigate the impact on hospitals. That's logical, rational, and science/data based. The BS we have in place right now bears no resemblance to science, data, or logic. Just dumbass politicians mucking up everything, while enjoying their new ill gotten powers, and making everyone's lives worse.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that I'd bet millions...MILLIONS...of people in this country got some form of the VID at some point (myself included) and now possess the antibodies. My tennis partner told me her son, from New York, was tested and has the antibodies, but never tested positive for the VID. This whole "shut down the economy" and "shelter in place" mentality is total crap. Lina Hidalgo (Harris County, TX "judge"**) is a worthless, idiotic, moronic piece of human waste (might not even be human). But most of y'all probably already knew my POV...

** Texas really needs to come up with a new term for that position. Labeling that position as "County Judge", which requires the occupant to have ZERO background or knowledge whatsoever in "the law", gives that person a certain sense of ostentatious, corruptible, tyrannical power. And we're witnessing that right before our very eyes...

quote:

Originally posted by bendable:
As long as we are expressing
Disconcerting posting practices,
I disagree
with extensive post script tag lines, anything more than 5 lines , (to me)
Is a book, not a sentiment.

LOL!! I trust that's a joke, because your signature line is actually comprised of more lines (returns) than mine.

Erj.
Teach me about counting lines of text,
I count
four lines , at the end of mine and two paragraphs on yours.

Makes me wonder if different
Screens on different devices appear
. .... . Differently

Under the what is old is new again column, here's some great mask ideas from way back on Jan. 30 of this thread:

quote:

Originally posted by feersum dreadnaught:
custom mask ideas...

I'd go with the fruit scented, rather than the others. Still wondering about the breath-ability of orange peel...






https://nypost.com/2020/01/30/...sks-from-fruit-bras/