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Peace through superior firepower |
Do not fucking lecture me about the fundamentals of reality. What happened to all that concern you had earlier about me being upset with you? Well, I wasn't then, but you're pushing it now. You do not- ever- have to inform me of the basics of living in this world. I am not "ignoring" anything; quite the opposite. I am directly addressing this stupid shit about nearly a quarter of a million Americans dead from this virus and I am telling you that people throwing around numbers like that are being irresponsible, because it's nothing more than WAGs. Just stop frightening people with this unnecessary throwing out of these grotesque numbers. | |||
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Member |
Well there is the U of M Health System. | |||
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Nullus Anxietas |
Not defending the numbers. Can't, unless you can see their math and what it's based upon. More defending the individuals coming up with those numbers. Unless one believes, as apparently some do, that Drs. Fauci and Birx are deep state agents out to sink the country's economy in order to discredit Trump and/or destroy the country, is it not reasonable to assume they're developing these numbers by applying their education and experience to the evidence they currently have? How are they to answer? "We don't know?" That wouldn't be reassuring. Wouldn't reflect well on the President's choices for "health experts," either. "We hesitate to say?" Imagine how the public might react to that response. (e.g.: "What are they hiding?!?!") A purposely-lowball number they feel to be hopelessly optimistic? Or the best estimates they feel they can derive? I know which I prefer. "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe "If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher | |||
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Happiness is Vectored Thrust |
Ah, got it. It's not a WAG, it's a scientific WAG. By the way, did you know that 48.7% of statistics are made up? About 24.734% of the time anyway. Icarus flew too close to the sun, but at least he flew. | |||
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Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie |
Just like them Climate change models, right? ~Alan Acta Non Verba NRA Life Member (Patron) God, Family, Guns, Country Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan "Once there was only dark. If you ask me, light is winning." ~Rust Cohle | |||
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Unflappable Enginerd |
Expert, someone that knows a LOT about very little... __________________________________ NRA Benefactor I lost all my weapons in a boating, umm, accident. http://www.aufamily.com/forums/ | |||
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Member |
Are we seeing the effects of various shelter / stay at home orders? One would expect that, in areas where the orders were followed starting about 2 weeks ago, the incidence rate has peaked is trending downward. Is that being confirmed? If the rates are not peaking and trending downward as expected, any explanation for why not? Also, curious about the spring break locations - did they spike in incidence rates after the spring break invasions? "Wrong does not cease to be wrong because the majority share in it." L.Tolstoy "A government is just a body of people, usually, notably, ungoverned." Shepherd Book | |||
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Member |
A phrase from The Princess Bride comes to mind here "Wrong does not cease to be wrong because the majority share in it." L.Tolstoy "A government is just a body of people, usually, notably, ungoverned." Shepherd Book | |||
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10mm is The Boom of Doom |
I don't believe those either. But I did teach the boys to swim, just in case. The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People again must learn to work, instead of living on public assistance. ~ Cicero 55 BC The Dhimocrats love America like ticks love a hound. | |||
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Still finding my way |
What a fucking shit show the human race has become. | |||
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Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie |
Did you also quit your job and move to the highest peak in North America? ~Alan Acta Non Verba NRA Life Member (Patron) God, Family, Guns, Country Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan "Once there was only dark. If you ask me, light is winning." ~Rust Cohle | |||
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Shall Not Be Infringed |
^^^^This! Epidemiology is an 'actual science'....Kinda like 'Climate Science' The 'projections' an (honest) epidemiologist makes are not just random numbers pulled out of thin air, they are based on mathematical models that have been developed based on past observations of epidemics....NOT necessarily this one! Those mathematical models rely on a number of 'statistical values' that have been 'estimated' from observations of this pandemic. Sooo, 'Guesstimates'....Just like Climate Change! ____________________________________________________________ If Some is Good, and More is Better.....then Too Much, is Just Enough !! Trump 2024....Save America! "May Almighty God bless the United States of America" - parabellum 7/26/20 Live Free or Die! | |||
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10mm is The Boom of Doom |
No. I don't like getting high. The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People again must learn to work, instead of living on public assistance. ~ Cicero 55 BC The Dhimocrats love America like ticks love a hound. | |||
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Member |
Sorry, Para. That clearly didn't come out the way I intended. I don't mind disagreeing with you, and I don't expect you to drop the hammer on me for disagreeing with you, at least not without warning. I do want to make sure that if you tell me to do something (or not do something) on your forum, I do it (or don't, as the case may be). Since our last interaction here, I think I've avoided posting any projections of future numbers. I intended to, and will continue that policy. I guess the point of my post was that I think epidemiology, while not a crystal ball, is capable of generating models that are more than WAGs, and, with the understanding of what they actually mean and their limitations (which the media does not seem particularly interested in communicating), those models can be useful tools for planning both for the government and for the individual citizen.This message has been edited. Last edited by: maladat, | |||
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Savor the limelight |
A normal response would be to give a range of possible numbers because of the variablilty in the models. As better data is collected, that range should narrow. Only talking about the worst case numbers does not help people. Take hurricane Dorian for example. What a great thread that was. All the overblown predictions, logic and reason were thrown out the window, and yet what happened? Has Orlando recovered? How did our forum member and his family fair on their vacation? And this was with hurricane predictions that regular people have dealt with on a regular basis. | |||
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Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie |
Touché. ~Alan Acta Non Verba NRA Life Member (Patron) God, Family, Guns, Country Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan "Once there was only dark. If you ask me, light is winning." ~Rust Cohle | |||
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Member |
Practically every value in any field of science has an associated error interval. Your bathroom scale, like every measuring instrument on earth, is not perfectly accurate. When you tell someone how much you weigh, is it a WAG?
Got it. You have a problem with climate science models, so let's throw away every field of science that uses mathematical models. Wait a sec, that's all of them. Oh well, who needed science anyway? | |||
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Unflappable Enginerd |
Purposely obtuse, much? __________________________________ NRA Benefactor I lost all my weapons in a boating, umm, accident. http://www.aufamily.com/forums/ | |||
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Member |
Are you an epidemiologist or MD? I'm not and will readily admit it, but I do know a few things: 1) Pandemics do occur and when they do the result are catastrophic. We know this from history. 2) Medical doctors aren't familiar with every detail about COVID-19, but they do know it's extremely deadly to a segment of the population, and far more of a threat than the "seasonal flu" when or if society doesn't change it's regular habits. 3) According to most of the experts (I'm not one of them, but I do listen to what they have to say.), drastically changing our behaviors can have a major effect on the progress of the infection and greatly reduce the number of deaths by slowing down the rate of infection. If this is true, why wouldn't we be happy to see positive results that include lives saved? 4) I voted for President Trump because I believed he'd work for the PEOPLE (vs Clinton) and would evaluate information presented by the best sources available and make informed decisions. I've seen nothing that would change my mind about the competency of our President or his determination to direct policies that are in our best interest. I hope he's right and the country comes through this with the best possible outcome. "I'm not fluent in the language of violence, but I know enough to get around in places where it's spoken." | |||
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Member |
A bit, sure. However, he gave climate change models as a reason to discount epidemiological models, with no information as to why that would apply to epidemiology but not the mathematical models used in any other scientific field. | |||
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