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Originally posted by bubbatime:

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:
This is not Ebola. It is not Lassa. It is not MERS. It appears to be very transmissible, but not especially lethal. Certainly not as lethal as the regular, seasonal flu. For now. It is permissible to chill. For now.

Where the EFF are you getting your fake news from? Seriously!!?? What fake ass news organization is telling you that this new virus is less lethal than the "regular, seasonal flu??!!

I am flabbergasted that you would even post such nonsense. Conservative estimates show this virus at 300 times more deadly than than common seasonal flu. We just dont know. The Chinese are burning hundreds more dead bodies every day than they are reporting. They are lying through their teeth. And you come along and post that this is just a minor blip on the radar. Like seriously, where are you getting your info? What we KNOW is that this is killing people at an alarming rate, spreading far faster than any common flu we know of. An conservative number, conservative, is that its killing at least, bare minimum, 300 times more people than common flu. Like what the eff man??

If the scientist dont work out a working vaccine, and do it quick, then the world is looking at MILLIONS dead in the next 18-24 months, with likely MILLIONS dead in the USA alone. But your right, this shit is small potatoes and the regular flu is worse.

Jeeeeeesus, you need to get a hold of yourself.

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:

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Originally posted by Doc H.:Back to our regularly scheduled broadcast. This is not Ebola. It is not Lassa. It is not MERS. It appears to be very transmissible, but not especially lethal. Certainly not as lethal as the regular, seasonal flu. For now. It is permissible to chill. For now.

Seasonal flu has around a .1% mortality rate. This coronavirus is between 2-4%, and that's just what we're being told by the Chinese. It is most certainly more virulent than the seasonal flu, and exactly as transmissible as per NIH; an R0 of 2-4. Since things are just getting started globally, it remains to be seen if western medicine renders it less dangerous but even if it ends up being 10X less deadly than reported, it is still worse than the flu.

Lethality (CFR - Case Fatality Rate) in this context refers to the number of deaths versus the number of confirmed infected, and is overall a better measure of clinical significance in epidemiology. We don't actually know the number of infected with COVID-19, for quite a number of reasons, but it is reasonable to assume the CFR may be in the range other, known, CoV organisms at this time, some of which are known to be fairly high (MERS being one), but this particular one not demonstrating traits of the worst. It still could (as could many other candidates), but it doesn't right now. And I'm tired, so I think I'm done here for the time being, unless I catch COVID-19 and join the millions of other uncounted dead some of our estimable members absolutely vouch we will see in a week or two. And I'll certainly share all this new information with my colleagues, who will no doubt have a renewed sense of alarm not currently experienced.

780 MILLION Chinese in quarantine. Yeah, sounds like a minor blip on the radar, huh doc?

I hope Im wrong. But the info Im seeing out there, says I might be right. Millions dead in the next 18-24 months. Economies collapsed. Put it on the calendar. Fact check me in two years. Lets see who was right or wrong...

Lets just believe the disinformation propaganda nonsense coming out of the CDC currently from Baghdad Bob....

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Originally posted by RogueJSK:

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Originally posted by rburg:
Maybe this is a cure for what ails SS. With it killing all of us old folks, that will mean more money in the pot for younger retirees and more working to pay into it. Its a plot, I tell you.

Truth be told, the Black Death was actually good for Europe in the grand scheme of things.

It reduced overpopulation and resulting food shortages, increased wages and prompted labor-saving innovations due to lower labor supply and higher demand, greatly diminished the power of the Church and nobility that had been taking advantage of the serfs under their thumb, increased the standard of living for the survivors, broke feudalism and led to the rise of the middle class, and jump-started the Renaissance due to greater availability of free time and a renewed appreciation for pursuing pastimes that made you happy (like creating art and literature) while you still could.

So it seems the human race could use a plague from time to time. In the long run, not all the consequences are bad, provided it's not an extinction-level event.

Wow. I have no words.

Seriously?

So jokingly wishing for a comet to come wipe out the planet is just a long-running joke told in good fun, and regularly mocking people who die in stupid ways by handing out Darwin Awards is considered hilarious in these parts, but academically mentioning the positive historical side effects of the Black Death and following it up with a semi-sarcastic comment on the usefulness of plagues is too far here at Sigforum?

You might want to wear a helmet if you're going to be out on the interwebs much.

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:Back to our regularly scheduled broadcast. This is not Ebola. It is not Lassa. It is not MERS. It appears to be very transmissible, but not especially lethal. Certainly not as lethal as the regular, seasonal flu. For now. It is permissible to chill. For now.

Seasonal flu has around a .1% mortality rate. This coronavirus is between 2-4%, and that's just what we're being told by the Chinese. It is most certainly more virulent than the seasonal flu, and exactly as transmissible as per NIH; an R0 of 2-4. Since things are just getting started globally, it remains to be seen if western medicine renders it less dangerous but even if it ends up being 10X less deadly than reported, it is still worse than the flu.

Just using the Johns Hopkins numbers, 1775/71,902 = .02468637. Let’s round that up to 2.5%, or two and a half people out of every hundred that are confirmed cases of the disease dying from it. 2.5% is a little bit more than 0.1%, like twenty five times as much.

This is using reported numbers and assuming the CCP is telling the truth. If the CCP is not telling the truth, do you expect that the situation is better or worse than they are reporting?

quote:

Originally posted by bubbatime:
780 MILLION Chinese in quarantine. Yeah, sounds like a minor blip on the radar, huh doc?

I hope Im wrong. But the info Im seeing out there, says I might be right. Millions dead in the next 18-24 months. Economies collapsed. Put it on the calendar. Fact check me in two years. Lets see who was right or wrong...

Lets just believe the disinformation propaganda nonsense coming out of the CDC currently from Baghdad Bob....

If you're right it won't matter. If you're wrong, will you kiss my Papal ring?

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Originally posted by RogueJSK:
Seriously?

Joking about a comet wiping out the planet is just good fun, and mocking people who die in stupid ways by handing out awards is hilarious, but academically mentioning the positive side effects of the Black Death and following it up with a sarcastic comment on the usefulness of plagues is too far?

You might want to wear a helmet if you're going to be out on the interwebs.

It is all fun and games until the rat fleas bite you and yours...

7% mortality for flu. (in the USA, where we have some of the best protocols for dealing with health)
3% mortality for SARS-CoV-2. (yeah, it's young, and mostley happening in a near 3rd world conditions)

This flu this season is particularly more likely to result in deaths than many past years.

Average deaths are 300-650 thousand, and this year it could reach 1 million.

But the flu is boring, the news of it is boring.

The flu is a fart, this coronovirus is puke.

Someone farts, people get up, some laugh, a few "Ewws!!!" are uttered, and worse case, someone has to go change their skivvies.

Someone pukes, and it's a different game, people leave the room, others leave their lunch, and someone is always cleaning up something.

Given the propensity for the media and all manner of people looking for something to be about, I see most ("reporting") as more hype than help.

quote:

If you're wrong, will you kiss my Papal ring?

If he's right, will you kiss his?

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Originally posted by RogueJSK:
Seriously?

So jokingly wishing for a comet to come wipe out the planet is just a long-running joke told in good fun, and regularly mocking people who die in stupid ways by handing out Darwin Awards is considered hilarious in these parts, but academically mentioning the positive historical side effects of the Black Death and following it up with a semi-sarcastic comment on the usefulness of plagues is too far here at Sigforum?

You might want to wear a helmet if you're going to be out on the interwebs much.

Careful. You'll end up on his ignore list

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Originally posted by bubbatime:
780 MILLION Chinese in quarantine. Yeah, sounds like a minor blip on the radar, huh doc?

Assuming Google is correct and China has 1.4 billion people (rounding up), that is over half their population. However, I believe definition of terms is necessary; specifically, what is 'quarantine.'

When I think of a 'quarantine,' I'm thinking of being locked in a tent city or hospital wing. China couldn't do this with over half their population if they wanted to, so I have to assume 'quarantine' in this case refers to entire cities/counties/provinces. In other words, it would be like saying Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Louisiana are under 'quarantine.'

Putting it this way sounds far less alarmist and sinister, IMO.

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I hope Im wrong. But the info Im seeing out there, says I might be right. Millions dead in the next 18-24 months. Economies collapsed. Put it on the calendar. Fact check me in two years. Lets see who was right or wrong...

And, this is yet ONE MORE thing that is going to kill us all in the next few years. I've lost count - Ebola (and I was on the Oh Crap! Ebola in the USA! bandwagon, though I am VERY happy to have been wrong about that one), global warming, SuperVolcano!, sharknado, etc etc etc.

It is too early for me to get too excited about this. I wouldn't trust the Chinese if they told me the sky was blue and night was dark, so we will have to wait until it hits somewhere 'civilized' (Australia, Europe, Canadia) before we can make a decent danger assessment.

Until then, I will sleep well knowing it probably won't be nearly as bad as the media ("If it bleeds, it leads) claims.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
Careful. You'll end up on his ignore list

And risk missing out on my attempted witty remarks, awful dad jokes, tasteless sarcasm, black humor, and occasionally semi-relevant historical tidbits?

He wouldn't dare.

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Originally posted by sigmonkey:
7% mortality for flu. (in the USA, where we have some of the best protocols for dealing with health)

Really? I thought it was 0.1% for the flu. I’ve had the flu many times. I know many people who have had the flu many times. I don’t know anyone who has died from the flu. I know people die from it, but 7% mortality? Where does this statistic come from?
Thanks!

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7% mortality for flu. (in the USA, where we have some of the best protocols for dealing with health)

.1, actually.

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Originally posted by gearhounds:

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If you're wrong, will you kiss my Papal ring?

If he's right, will you kiss his?

But...won't we both be demised?

quote:

Originally posted by RogueJSK:

Truth be told, the Black Death was actually good for Europe in the grand scheme of things.

It reduced overpopulation and resulting food shortages, increased wages and prompted labor-saving innovations due to lower labor supply and higher demand, greatly diminished the power of the Church and nobility that had been taking advantage of the serfs under their thumb, increased the standard of living for the survivors, broke feudalism and led to the rise of the middle class, and jump-started the Renaissance due to greater availability of free time and a renewed appreciation for pursuing pastimes that made you happy (like creating art and literature) while you still could.

So it seems the human race could use a plague from time to time. In the long run, not all the consequences are bad, provided it's not an extinction-level event.

You give the plague a lot of credit.

Good news...my wife's India business trip has been put off. The bad news she's in meetings all week with Indian's in Panama...I'm locking her in the bedroom for 14 days when she gets home. :-)

Serious question now, has anyone seen any interviews from someone who has had Covid-19 and recovered?