quote:

Originally posted by apprentice:
What are the bargains now? Of course I mean the ones that you smart folks will be bragging about in a month.

Have some powder dry and want to shoot straight.

CHK.

Hey, it could... my investment in them doubled the past 1 week.

quote:

Originally posted by 280nosler:

quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:


It takes very little for the market to drop and I’m afraid another outbreak will freak people out and they will overreact. If you’re in for the long run it won’t matter but I’d like to sell so I can buy again when the market drops and make more. It’s a guessing game but in reality whichever way I choose to go I’ll be fine, if I hold it will drop and rebound but if I sell and it drops I can buy low and make more overall. Market drops don’t bother me since I can make money that way. When to sell and buy is the hard part and I’m sure there are people much better than me at guessing.

That is called timing the market. Very few can correctly time the market. If you are talking about liquidating some positions to reduce risk and redeploying capital to sectors that have remains depressed and act as trailing indicators, that is a valid strategy. Selling based on implied expectation on market drops is a poor mans investing plan.

I'll ask a simple questions - did you liquidate your positions in late February before this hit, or did you buy on March 23rd?

I think if I had the knowledge, ESP or anything that told me how to time the market I wouldn’t be here talking about it. I pulled out long before this, at least with the majority of my money, I still had some in the market. Once things started dropping I started buying. It’s not like it’s an arbitrary guess that the markets “might” drop if the Covid hits hard again, I think it’s a pretty sure thing that they will. You may call it a poor mans investing plan but by getting out of the market and into fixed interest I’m not losing anything but guaranteeing small gains versus any loss. Whether it works or not I still will not have lost any money. In 2008 I was in fixed interest and lost nothing. The problem then was I took too long to buy in again.

quote:

Originally posted by apprentice:
What are the bargains now? Of course I mean the ones that you smart folks will be bragging about in a month.

Have some powder dry and want to shoot straight.

It's a risk, so I wouldn't short sell a lot of it in terms of % of your portfolio. But Blue Apron went up over 600% with this fiasco, I don't see their stock price sustainable at that. Yes, their sales increased a lot, but they've had a lot of meal fulfillment issues (go to their website and look at their menu for upcoming weeks, many meal kits out of stock even 4 weeks out, like 20-30% of their menu), I don't think their profitability has nearly matched the sales increase. How do you retain these new customers when 20-30% of your menu is sold out and choices limited compared to your top competitors (Hello Fresh, Marley Spoon, and Top Chef) who have had very minimal if any shortages. I'd find a day it's high and short sale a little of it. Then buy it back when it drops 20% one day, I think it'll drop a lot more eventually.

New Zealand closed with a nice 3% bump on positive Covid news.

https://eresearch.fidelity.com...ode=NZ&symbol=.NZDOW

CHK doubles so far today...trading may be stopped temporarily. Trading 5x what I bought it for last week.

Now, we’ll see if it tumbles!

quote:

Originally posted by bcereuss:
CHK doubles so far today...trading may be stopped temporarily. Trading 5x what I bought it for last week.

Now, we’ll see if it tumbles!

Jesus, it was trading at 700% of inter-week lows before it was halted. WTF? Friday out was trading at 10x the 10 day volume. Something smells fishy.

NKLA is doing some interesting things.

My cruise stocks I bought at the dip took off.

Biotech OMEROS (OMER currently at 15.90) looks interesting for the next couple of years.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: FishOn,

quote:

Originally posted by 280nosler:

quote:

Originally posted by bcereuss:
CHK doubles so far today...trading may be stopped temporarily. Trading 5x what I bought it for last week.

Now, we’ll see if it tumbles!

Jesus, it was trading at 700% of inter-week lows before it was halted. WTF? Friday out was trading at 10x the 10 day volume. Something smells fishy.

Ya wow it was trading in the mid teens and now almost hit 70? But I read something that said in after hours its dropped 18% and they're filing for bankruptcy and giving lenders control.

Glad I pulled out of AAL when I did. I’ll be looking to re-buy based on where they end up. I’m just spectating today, tomorrow may present some opportunities.

bought some small positions this morning on the dip:

Nordstrom (JWN) and Norwegian (NCLH)

----------------------------

quote:

Originally posted by 280nosler:

quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:


It takes very little for the market to drop and I’m afraid another outbreak will freak people out and they will overreact. If you’re in for the long run it won’t matter but I’d like to sell so I can buy again when the market drops and make more. It’s a guessing game but in reality whichever way I choose to go I’ll be fine, if I hold it will drop and rebound but if I sell and it drops I can buy low and make more overall. Market drops don’t bother me since I can make money that way. When to sell and buy is the hard part and I’m sure there are people much better than me at guessing.

That is called timing the market. Very few can correctly time the market. If you are talking about liquidating some positions to reduce risk and redeploying capital to sectors that have remains depressed and act as trailing indicators, that is a valid strategy. Selling based on implied expectation on market drops is a poor mans investing plan.

I'll ask a simple questions - did you liquidate your positions in late February before this hit, or did you buy on March 23rd?

So was today’s drop timing the market, my poor mans investing plan or ESP?

quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:

quote:

Originally posted by 280nosler:

quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:


It takes very little for the market to drop and I’m afraid another outbreak will freak people out and they will overreact. If you’re in for the long run it won’t matter but I’d like to sell so I can buy again when the market drops and make more. It’s a guessing game but in reality whichever way I choose to go I’ll be fine, if I hold it will drop and rebound but if I sell and it drops I can buy low and make more overall. Market drops don’t bother me since I can make money that way. When to sell and buy is the hard part and I’m sure there are people much better than me at guessing.

That is called timing the market. Very few can correctly time the market. If you are talking about liquidating some positions to reduce risk and redeploying capital to sectors that have remains depressed and act as trailing indicators, that is a valid strategy. Selling based on implied expectation on market drops is a poor mans investing plan.

I'll ask a simple questions - did you liquidate your positions in late February before this hit, or did you buy on March 23rd?

So was today’s drop timing the market, my poor mans investing plan or ESP?

I guess that depends on what your timing horizon is. Did you sell everything 2 days ago, and at what point are you planning to buy more? You make a big deal about "timing the market" - why not put your money with your mouth is and list what stocks you are buying days in advance, and tell everybody when you plan to sell and why?

My only sale in the last 30 days was to liquidate my position in JetBlue on Tuesday, and that was (As I stated in an earlier post), fear from a move too far too fast? I purchased those shares on Monday, 6/1 @10.12 and sold on 6/9. I'll take those profits and wait until a good buying opportunity shows its self. Did I time the market - No, I used intrinsic data that is provided from the TSA showing the actual number of travelers, and also used the bounce from B of A upgrading its view and market price on JBLUE. I did not know the airline stocks were going to fall as they did in the last 2 days.

I guess I am left asking - how do you know when the market will go up, and how do you know and differentiate the difference between a selloff and a market correction?

quote:

Originally posted by 280nosler:

quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:

quote:

Originally posted by 280nosler:

quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:


It takes very little for the market to drop and I’m afraid another outbreak will freak people out and they will overreact. If you’re in for the long run it won’t matter but I’d like to sell so I can buy again when the market drops and make more. It’s a guessing game but in reality whichever way I choose to go I’ll be fine, if I hold it will drop and rebound but if I sell and it drops I can buy low and make more overall. Market drops don’t bother me since I can make money that way. When to sell and buy is the hard part and I’m sure there are people much better than me at guessing.

That is called timing the market. Very few can correctly time the market. If you are talking about liquidating some positions to reduce risk and redeploying capital to sectors that have remains depressed and act as trailing indicators, that is a valid strategy. Selling based on implied expectation on market drops is a poor mans investing plan.

I'll ask a simple questions - did you liquidate your positions in late February before this hit, or did you buy on March 23rd?

So was today’s drop timing the market, my poor mans investing plan or ESP?

I guess that depends on what your timing horizon is. Did you sell everything 2 days ago, and at what point are you planning to buy more? You make a big deal about "timing the market" - why not put your money with your mouth is and list what stocks you are buying days in advance, and tell everybody when you plan to sell and why?

My only sale in the last 30 days was to liquidate my position in JetBlue on Tuesday, and that was (As I stated in an earlier post), fear from a move too far too fast? I purchased those shares on Monday, 6/1 @10.12 and sold on 6/9. I'll take those profits and wait until a good buying opportunity shows its self. Did I time the market - No, I used intrinsic data that is provided from the TSA showing the actual number of travelers, and also used the bounce from B of A upgrading its view and market price on JBLUE. I did not know the airline stocks were going to fall as they did in the last 2 days.

I guess I am left asking - how do you know when the market will go up, and how do you know and differentiate the difference between a selloff and a market correction?

On a particular stock I look at the bid and ask size.......if it's going down and the bid is below asking price and there's 10000 bid x 500ask.....the stock is still going down....

It's hard to determine the difference between a sell off and a market correction, so you have to set a buy price you're comfortable with (based on earnings, gut instinct, which side of the bed you woke up on) and when it reaches it, continue watching to see if it drops more or start buying........Personally, there is nothing to justify where the DOW is at right now besides the FED pumping money into people's pockets.

I did very well on the buy of F and MFA and posted those earlier in this thread.....but decided when I got a 20-30% return, I was dumping them......on Ford it went up a bit higher than what I sold it at.....on MFA, it went up almost 200% more than I sold it at, even though I made around 30% on it.......you're going to win some and lose some, I still made money and as long as you win most of the time, you're doing ok.......

During times like this, you KNOW the market is going to be volatile......so then I buy/sell/buy/sell/buy/sell on news, dips etc. In a normal market, you look for a deal on a stock, buy and hold.

Some big profit taking today, as many expected.

quote:

Originally posted by jimmy123x:
During times like this, you KNOW the market is going to be volatile......so then I buy/sell/buy/sell/buy/sell on news, dips etc. In a normal market, you look for a deal on a stock, buy and hold.

Speculation has its place, as long as you're being honest with yourself and not speculating with money you can't afford to lose.

I'm looking forward to a return to more normal investment environment. Till then, it's a speculator's market and I'm happy to continue sitting it out. Poorly managed, poorly capitalized companies, and those well-managed companies that are just unfortunate enough to be in the crosshairs of the crud and reactions to the crud? They're still in the major indices and as long as that's true, even the ETF/Index route has too many 'insect parts in the breakfast cereal.'

My expectation is maybe in the Fall, depending on what happens with crud-infection numbers with the relaxations/riots. If we get a hard spike, all bets are off, IMO.

quote:

Originally posted by joel9507:

I'm looking forward to a return to more normal investment environment.

Has it really ever been "Normal" ?

I've been investing since the early 1980's and we've seen market crashes, wars, bubbles, a real estate and Financial crisis, terrorism, Pandemics, political change, etc. All kinds of non-normal stuff.

Does "normal" exist for any length of time? Or maybe all the things I listed are a part of "normal"

quote:

Originally posted by radioman:
all the things I listed are a part of "normal"

Got it in one.

quote:

Originally posted by GT-40DOC:
Some big profit taking today, as many expected.

No, I think people in the know, know that 2nd quarter earnings- 4th quarter are going to be horrible for earnings and the market is over-valued and getting out to get back in later. I know someone that sold $10's of millions in stock this morning right before it started dropping as they own 300 businesses (not stocks) in many different industries and realize the writing is on the wall.

Am I the only one worried about a revival in the trade war with China?

There are lots of risks that are inconsistent with 10,000 for the NASDAQ.