quote:

Originally posted by 12131:
I don’t know anything about the numbers but just want to point out HRK’s post that lumps “average” and “median” together is not correct. The two are not interchangeable.

The author is using the incorrect term, believe it should be Average and Mean... It's been a while since Statistics classes in high school...

Just some figures from the internet, the point was that you can't just say people are overspending their incomes is why they aren't buying homes with an average of $420K.


Key Figures (Late 2024/2025):
Median Price: Generally between $860,000 - $900,000.

Average Home Value (Zillow): Around $775,000 (down slightly).

Median Sale Price (CAR): Approximately $899,140 (August 2025).

The other factor is that there is a shortage of homes to potential buyers, not enough starting homes available that would increase inventory and drive prices down.

Around here they are buying up older homes on big lot and building massive houses in the 7 figure range where the old home was in the mid $600's.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:
Replacement is considered 2.1. (this takes into account births that don't make it to adulthood)
1.6 is NOT replacement.
It has nothing to do with who the daddy is...

The 2.1 as a replacement target makes some assumptions. Like traditional couple. 50/50 M:F babies. Whatever. I'm just saying that some of these assumptions may no longer be true.

For example, if you have 1.6 babies per female, that's about replacement if it's 2 females and 1 male. At least for those 3 people.

Maybe academic and not reflective of reality. Just that it seems that the stats make assumptions that may or may not be true.

quote:

Originally posted by 12131:

I don’t know anything about the numbers but just want to point out HRK’s post that lumps “average” and “median” together is not correct. The two are not interchangeable.

Math major here. The word "average" can mean any of three things:

• Mean, which is found by adding all the values, then dividing the sum by the number of things. This is what is usually meant by "average," but it is not the only definition of that word.
  
  
• Median -- there are as many things that have a higher value, as there are that have a lower value.
  
  
• Mode -- There are more things that have this value, than any other value.

Any (every) one of the above can correctly be called "average," although if not otherwise specified, "average" usually refers to the mean.

The average first time homebuyer age in this country isn't at an all time high because of Starbucks, and an iPhone.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:

quote:

Young people who “can’t afford” a house seem to afford a whole bunch of shit that earlier generations didn’t have, couldn’t afford, and didn’t need.

Expensive phones, expensive cars, expensive vacations, fancy coffees, eating out regularly, this list writes itself. Plus the reason they don’t make a lot of 1198 sq ft houses is because younger people would not buy them. They can get bigger apartments.

When my wife and I got married we had an apartment for the first year. It was the cheapest apartment we could find. It didn't even have air conditioning. We ate the cheapest food we could buy. We drove beater cars. We scrimped and saved and within a year we had a down payment for our first house. It was only a 1440 square foot home, but we thought it was a castle.

But... back then nobody had a cell phone or a cable bill.

We did much the same as you. Lived in a 1 bedroom apartment for the first year while we added to the nest egg we got when we asked people to give us money instead of gifts for our wedding.

My FIL and I spent 90 days during the winter while I had a full time job building our first home in Galveston, TX. The S/D requirements were 1400SF min and we built a 1403 SF house. Talk about sweat equity!
Sold that house and made about 50K net and started climbing the ladder. It was a tough time but it made us who we are. Oh, the interest rate on our first home was….9 7/8% AND we had PPI on top of that so I don’t want to hear any bitching from anyone as to how hard it is now…

Off the soapbox..

quote:

Originally posted by V-Tail:

Median -- there are as many things that have a higher value, as there are that have a lower value.

I believe this is correct however I think it's often misinterpreted as a mean.

My understanding is that the median is the middle of a data set (calculated if the data set has an even count).

So, if the dataset is: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 then the median is 5 (4 numbers on each side; 4 things higher and 4 things lower like you said).

If the dataset is: 2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,9, then the median is 2 (the fifth number is 2, with again 4 things higher/equal and 4 things lower/equal, again like you said).

Median and mean can be the same/close or very different.

Pedropcola has it right. I do think there is some room for agreement. I am not the one arguing. I am just stating a perspective. Might not be yours, I get it.

If you make $70k a year.
It may not be an Iphone and starbucks everyday. But if you add everything up. Cars, toy's fixed costs, dining, excetra. Interest is huge.
And you are virtually spending all of it plus adding to your cc and tapping your folks for $ you are not going to own a house, nor should you. Let a lone get married and start a family and keep it together long term.
Younger people definitely have challenges but tend to be their own worst enemies and end up looking to place blame somewhere else.

Now, I am saying that is everybody because its not. But we all see it in our own families enough to know it is pervasive in our society. Got to have now and got to have it all. How to pay for it is down the list a ways.

It is everyone's responsibility to try to read and play the cards correctly. Or at least not just let them fall where the may. Ymmv

I think there is great opportunity today for younger generations.

We have more than another other generation in our countries history, right now. Unfortunately that includes debt. And a lot of it.

Lastly that same person making $70k and spending all of it and more would adjust their life style to do exactly the same thing if they were making $100k for the vast majority of people. That is mindset of the vast majority of Americans today. Fwiw.

New homes have to meet more extensive code requirements. e.g. Here there must be a central fire suppression system and a fire alarm with an external speaker. Lots of other plumbing and electrical requirements that add cost. Windows are very energy efficient (which is great) and larger than the old aluminum frame single pane windows of 50+ years ago, but of course are expensive.

Aside from other factors such as cost of land or square footage, a new build is going to cost more now than it did back when we bought our first home way back when.

People are waiting longer to marry, which means there are more single adults buying or renting, increasing demand and pushing up prices.

From a supply viewpoint, builders are generally not rewarded for putting up economy versions of single family homes.

Back in the day, we all started with a starter home. Small, very basic, and not in the greatest neighborhood. My parents did, too. Nowadays the younger generation wants what we waited 20 years to afford, which is a newer, bigger home in a very desirable location.

Bottom line is I think society and the young adults are both contributing to the affordability issue.

quote:

I think there is great opportunity today for younger generations.

Yes, of course there is.
Some will seize the opportunity, some will not.
It's really not all that different.
The biggest difference I see is that too many don't want to defer gratification. They want it all, now!

I hear you reloaded but you are FLAT OUT ignoring that houses have gotten bigger as well. To satisfy a couple generations that wouldn’t understand frugality if it bit them on the ass.

The average starter home is huge compared to back in the day. People think they absolutely HAVE TO HAVE the latest greatest tech. Multiple streaming services. Instead of company shitty coffee I need a frappe mochachino to the tune of 6 bucks a pop. I need to eat out. CONSTANTLY. Vacations, oh yeah. And good ones.

You don’t get to cherry pick houses are more expensive. Yes they are. They are also massive and have way more features. As do the cars, phones, coffees, blah blah blah.

My 23 year is buying a house. On a tiny wage. At exactly or more that multiple you love to quote. It’s called getting the job done.

Somebody sold this idea to the younger generations that it was handed to us old folk and there is no way they can recreate that. Load of self defeatist bullshit. I tell my kids all the time when they look at my stuff that when I was their age I didn’t own shit but a mortgage and a car. A shitty car.

What does that book that nobody reads anymore say (millionaire next door)? You can look and act wealthy or you can be wealthy. It’s tough to do both.

quote:

Originally posted by reloader-1:
No no, stay on that soapbox. Year, income and how much the land + house cost?

The year was 1982 and I was making $25K as a researcher/ Instructor at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston teaching first year med students about cellular biology.

The lot size was, are you ready for this? 5000SF. That’s about 1/8 acre and we paid a whopping $19,000 for it. I don’t remember what our house cost…

I’m not sure anyone now should want to buy such a small home on a postage size lot but it worked for us.

quote:

In 2025, Florida's average income was around $60,216, with the median family income at approximately $69,303. Average home price was $410,000. (5.92x income)

How does this take into account all the homes owned by non-Floridians and retirees? There’s a lot of expensive homes owned by people that don’t work in Florida. Is their income included? Most retirees don’t have the income they had while working. Does that skew the income number lower?

reloader, no one is going to be suckered in to your little game. Go ahead and give us your numbers. I sure you can dream some up and educate us on how our decades of personal first had experience is so out of touch with reality today.

quote:

Originally posted by pedropcola:
I hear you reloaded but you are FLAT OUT ignoring that houses have gotten bigger as well.

My understanding is that a lot of that is driven by permitting and other regulatory costs, and that “starter homes” aren’t economical for builders.

Bought my first home in 1997 (the house was built in 1956) for $270,000.

Current estimate is $1.4M.

That is a 418% increase whereas the rate of inflation for that period is 103%.

My salary has not even kept pace with inflation.

And young kids are supposed to afford a home how?

And yet, there is still demand and customers. Regionally, it isn't about the wages. It's about wealth through other means. For example, if you work at particular companies, your wages may be market level but your company stock may have made you a multi-millionaire over the past 3-10 years. In some areas, they get a lot of the si valley assholes that come w/ their wealth and fuck up the red region - nice and clean vs where they came from.

I am sure you are and am sure you do. But honestly. We can have a discussion which we are with some really good points of view and personal experience. Not withstanding your industry expertise I think most here understand what is going on. Much of it specific to ones location.


Almost all of this came about because of the covid bs.

Now, these inflated values are going to stick because property taxes are based on current values. And states are looking for less tax revenue.

It sucks for not only new home buyers But for every home owner. It is a shitty deal all the way around.

We are in agreement reloader

Housing for young people is not unobtainable. If there is one trait that rubbed off on my middle son, it's being frugal. 30 years old, small one bedroom apartment, rent has only been raised 50 dollars in 8 years. Never has had a car payment,(just learned today his 05 accord is toast).
He has had a steady job since 16yo. I think he has about 200k in cash and I don't ask about his 401k. His girlfriend of 3 years who I know he will marry is 28 and still lives with parents. She probably has more cash than him.
50 year mortgage? Are you kidding? I preached to my sons, get a 15 year mortgage, pay it off in 8-10 years then buy your nice house.
But... Nobody listens to me!!

Visiting inlaws in Cleveland saw the post-WWII houses for the new families that emerged once the military returned. Small houses on small lots with a garage. The houses 60+ years old were painted and yards mowed. They looked like a great way to get into a house today but that is not what I see being built. In our neighborhood houses built with wood in early 1950s probably 2.500 sq ft sell over $800,000. No young couple can buy into this market.