quote:

Originally posted by konata88:
If this number is median and not mean, then it may not be clear that's the case.

If you have 1000 homes and 999 are $425K and 1 is $1M, the median (and mean) will be $425K.

If you have 1000 homes and 400 are $200K, 400 are $1M and 200 are $425K, the median is still $425K (mean is about $565K).

Basically, I think it's indeterminate how many homes are higher or lower than the median. Average as well since the upper bound is unknown.

1. I’m not being pedantic but being precise. In your first scenario, the mean is $425,575 while the median is exactly $425,000. This is important because it shows the difference between mean and median.

2. You’re incorrect In thinking it’s indeterminate how many houses are higher or lower than the median because the mathematical definition of median is the value at which the number of values below the median value is exactly equal to the number of values above the median value.

When I was looking to buy a house, I was able to track each month (red fin, etc) the median price, price per square foot, Year over year change, specifics for 3 bedroom houses, how many houses are available, how many were sold, how many sold at, below, and above asking price, average number of days on market before being sold, how many houses have been on market under 30 days, 90 days, and over 90 days.

In real estate, the outliers of expensive houses make the average value higher which makes the median value more preferred as a comparative measurement. For any neighborhood, the values do tend to clump around the median/mean. And the comp analysis normalizes the data for square footage, number of bathrooms, etc.

I understand the general topic is housing but I’m not sure what the issue is or what the various positions are.

If we’re talking about why people aren’t buying houses, it could be generational priorities. Gen Xers popularized the Financial Independence Retire Early movement in the 2000s / early 2010s.

On how to make housing affordable, the real solution is for wages to grow faster than inflation. You can cut spending and save but if inflation is eroding the value of the money you’ve saved, you’re in a losing battle. Inflation makes you look foolish in saving money for a down payment as the real value of your money in your savings account keeps decreasing while the price of houses keep going up.

quote:

On how to make housing affordable, the real solution is for wages to grow faster than inflation. You can cut spending and save but if inflation is eroding the value of the money you’ve saved, you’re in a losing battle. Inflation makes you look foolish in saving money for a down payment as the real value of your money in your savings account keeps decreasing while the price of houses keep going up.

Ahh... yes, now you are putting your finger to it: wages relative to inflation.

There are several reasons for this, but don't overlook one of the biggest culprits: the so-called Affordable Care Act. Many companies are facing such large health insurance costs that the choices are: reduce or eliminate coverage or reduce wages. Health "insurance" has become a bigger and bigger portion of your total compensation. It's completely out of control.

It doesn't matter whether you are part of the 11% of the population buying insurance on an ACA "exchange" plan or not. That terrible 2009 act has destroyed the entire market for and even the very meaning of the word insurance.

Fascinating discussion. One of the things I seldom see mentioned is people today (I was going to say "kids", but it's more than that) don't know how much money they have. They want something? They just pull out the plastic or tap their phone.

Back in the day, I had a checking account I had to reconcile monthly. I had cash. I wasn't able to tap to pay. So I always knew how much money I had. I don't know how most people do it today with a tap tap here and a tap tap there.

If I were a cynical person, I'd think that big business and government planned it this way....

quote:

Originally posted by HRK:
Hotel Life

I don't think this is new. When I was young and working with equally poor people, many of them were living in long-term hotel/motel because they did not have the money for first month/last month + security deposit. This was early 80s.

quote:

Originally posted by IntrepidTraveler:


Back in the day, I had a checking account I had to reconcile monthly. I had cash. I wasn't able to tap to pay. So I always knew how much money I had. I don't know how most people do it today with a tap tap here and a tap tap there.

If I were a cynical person, I'd think that big business and government planned it this way....

That brings back memories. Having just gotten out of the navy in my 20s, I remember trying to withdraw from my savings account. I needed two IDs. I only had my drivers license. The teller, about my age, said the other ID is a credit card; I didn't have any credit card. He scoffed at me.

Two of my kids are out of school and working. Both are fairly thrifty, but much of their excess income goes into Roth style retirement accounts for the significant tax advantages. Unfortunately, these funds are locked away and largely unavailable for a down payment.

If they were to buy houses they could redirect future income surpluses from retirement accounts to mortgage payments, but there is still the matter of that pesky down payment.

The retirement accounts of my youth had much lower caps and thus more of my savings were directed to liquid assets that were available for purchasing a home.

However, if young people can't buy homes then prices will inevitably fall. The market will clear.

If we are serious about lowering the prices of homes the best bet is to increase supply by relaxing restrictive regulations on new building and reducing demand competition from companies like Black Rock that are home hording, and foreign buyers.

Eliminating all capital gains on home appreciation and making old (low interest) mortgages transferable to a new home would also make downsizing more attractive to empty nesters thus opening more larger homes for young families.

quote:

Originally posted by pedropcola:
Somebody sold this idea to the younger generations that it was handed to us old folk and there is no way they can recreate that. Load of self defeatist bullshit. I tell my kids all the time when they look at my stuff that when I was their age I didn’t own shit but a mortgage and a car. A shitty car.

Yup, and I’m still not buying the bullshit either. I’m so past hearing the college crap, buying a house, car, whatever. Adapt or die. Quit buying all the new devices and going out to eat, and your fancy vacays because you vomit it all the time “I’m living my best life.” Yeah and they whine incessantly.

quote:

Originally posted by pedropcola:
What does that book that nobody reads anymore say (millionaire next door)? You can look and act wealthy or you can be wealthy. It’s tough to do both.

100%. Just like you said, when I bought my house 19 years ago, man it was a bitch the first years. No nice car, no nice nothing. Had to grind and just deal with it. No vacations at all for many years.

Tired of this snowflake bs. Grow a pair. Rub some sand in it.

quote:

Are there entitled snowflakes? Hundreds of thousands of them! I have zero doubt.

I’m not talking about those. Is there a real problem today with housing costs? What are the possible solutions?

Yes, there is a problem. But it's mostly a regional problem... at least partially caused by bad policy decisions on a local level.

My youngest daughter bought a house only a year out of college. But that was in Ponca City, OK where houses are relatively cheap.

She then took a job on the east coast, living in Fairfax, VA. It makes no sense to buy there at current prices. She's now living with her cousin and renting, but has plenty in the bank if/when prices come down.

What does a "starter" house for a young couple (age 26 to 32) look like? How many bedrooms, garage? How fancy is it? How big of a lot? After taking this into consideration, what should a starter house cost? Would a builder be willing to build houses like this? Can a young couple afford it? I am not trying to start anything here, just seriously want to know.

Around here, even 100 year old “fixer-upper” homes with no foundation, which normally would go for < $50k are listed at $200k+. It’s insane. To get into something relatively nice is $400+. And that’s in one of the poorest counties in the state. I can’t imagine trying to buy right now. Problem is, they’re selling (to mostly out of state buyers who can afford it) so prices won’t be going down any time soon.

Where averages meet opportunity and greed?

End of my street there was a one time summer cottage, probably built at the edge of the potato farm right after WW2. Someone's weekend getaway. I don't know sq footage, but about the size of a 1 1/2 car garage. One floor, tiny living room, 1 tiny bedroom, a tiny added on kitchenette and a tiny unfinished basement for storage. On less than 1/4 acre. Real-estate company bought it and it was recently listed for $450K. "Shockingly" (sarcasm) it didn't sell. So they knocked it down are trying to sell it to a builder, who'll soon build some monstrosity I assume in its place. There went one of your affordable starter houses, taken out of the "pool" as it were.

The house next to it sold. Sold in one day "on the market". Neighbors were quite happy with the offer and jumped on it.
Again, no person bought it, the real-estate bought it. They did the bathroom over, gave it a coat of paint inside and tacked $150k onto the price. Going on 7 months and it still hasn't sold.

Supply and demand made prices high or something else? (and not just inflation).

quote:

Originally posted by reloader-1:
That’s exactly the mentality that doesn’t allow for any rational discussion on if there is a problem or not.

Are there entitled snowflakes? Hundreds of thousands of them! I have zero doubt.

I’m not talking about those. Is there a real problem today with housing costs? What are the possible solutions?

“Grow a pair” is wonderful advice and highly relevant to all situations; but is there an actual issue?

If gas is $30 a gallon due to some idiotic government caused issue, is your answer “grow a pair, I drove everywhere and saved money?”.

Remember Reloader, the basic premise for these people is, "Fuck you I got mine!" I can tell you today, with no uncertainty there is only one group of people, one generation who those who came before and after both hate. The boomers will go down as the single worst people in the history of western civilization they killed Europe, and are doing their best to kill the United States. No generation before in human history did more to make life worse for their children then the "Me generation." That's how the Gen Z historians already view them, and no one trusts millennials and gen x doesn't care enough to have an opinion after a lifetime of abuse. So that will be how it gets recorded, and rightly so.

^^^ Well, that's a whole lot of generalizations.
As a whole, some truth to it but I do know booomers who actually care about other people...

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:
^^^ Well, that's a whole lot of generalizations.

Yes, that is how statistics work. Are there outliers? of course, but while this thread is squabbling about mean vs median not one single person saying "It's these damn kids fault" have addressed my only other post in this thread. more over there seems to be a view of "my individual experience was this way, and that means more than aggregate data."

But the facts remain the facts, First time homebuyers are the oldest they've ever been, and we as western civilization are suffering extreme population collapse. so it's not some subset but the vast majority under 40 are failing to thrive where as boomers are wealthier than they've ever been, and not because they're smarter or better equipped, they were simply first to arrive and have done everything that can to pull the ladder up behind them.

Young People:

- Younger people don't have land lines, they have a smart phone they get for "free" with payments embedded in their monthly service charges.
- They don't buy albums, CD's, DVD's, etc. they stream everything.
- They don't have Cable or Satellite TV, only internet service.
- They drink fancy coffee, but alcohol consumption and smoking are way down compared to decades ago so it's a wash.
- They have to save for retirement in 401K's and IRA's because they don't get a pension. Decades ago people got a real pensions so savings were more for things like down payments and large cash purchases, not money to live on during retirement, and retirement can be 20-30 years with today's lifespans.
- College tuition has way outpaced inflation and many jobs require a degree (even if it's not really necessary), and much of it is financed with loans.
- Every generation expects to live better than their parents. This has largely held true until now.
- Young women are obsessed with image on social media and drive the need for luxury - granite countertops, fancy kitchens and bathrooms, bigger homes, vacations, etc. Young men are probably fine with being more frugal, but if you want a girlfriend/wife she's going to demand stuff like this.

Pricing:

COVID spiked real estate prices. My property tax assessment and paid taxes have basically doubled since 2019. This was caused by lack of inventory - not many sellers because with work-at-home there was less need to relocate - increased costs and shortages of building materials, labor shortages, people from high cost areas moving to low cost areas and dumping all their house money into a new place to avoid capital gains taxes. In some areas land-use restrictions are a significant factor.

The charts show a price trajectory like 2008, and a looming correction. Don't fall for the "it will never come down, this is the new normal" argument, it's not. I pray that Wall Street is not up to similar shenanigans as 2008 and the fall will not be as fast and hard. They aren't doing the SAME things, but they are probably doing DIFFERENT things.

Private equity is a factor, but not as significant as people claim. Rental units can be restricted with zoning and HOA rules, and most of us agree that owners are better than tenants. Problem with private equity is they are buying houses with borrowed money that requires a return to pay the interest. If house values fall they will starting dumping properties, driving prices even lower.

Land use restrictions:

Boomers seem to want to live in the world they grew up with. Post war there was rapid growth and change, but once the Boomers got in control (and are still in control), more and more land use restrictions were put in place. They name things "historic" so they cannot be changed. They create regulations that make new construction in costal markets very very difficult. To limit "sprawl" they put limits on growth of the size of cities/towns, which were big enough for a while but now things are hitting the hard limits. Of course this is also self-serving because it increased the value of their own real estate holdings.

Demand:

Immigration is certainly increasing demand for homes. Legal and illegal both. The rapid influx of illegals claiming asylum and staying on parole under Biden, and given work permits and SSN's is certainly a factor.

quote:

boomers are wealthier than they've ever been, and not because they're smarter or better equipped, they were simply first to arrive and have done everything that can to pull the ladder up behind them.

Yeah... but they can't take it with them.
That generation is starting to give up the power they've had over others for a long time.

HOUSING DIVERSITY:

This hits close to home. I've lived in Avon, Indiana, due west of Indianapolis since 2001. It's a rapidly growing suburb in a very Republican county (most elections are decided by the Republican primary) with good schools, and lots of single family housing developments. It's still semi-rural with farms still amid the developments, and west of Avon is country (until you get to Danville ~10 miles away). Actually I live just outside the town in the county so I can't vote for town offices, but I'm in the school district and my address is in Avon. My son attend all of his K-12 education here and graduated from high school in 2022. Everything was more or less fine until the COVID and the Biden years.

Now we have a bunch of new apartments, high density developments, and mixed use developments. Only one apartment complex is visible from the main roads. The others are somewhat hidden behind big box stores and strip malls. It hit me hard in 2024 as I was shopping for a new car and some homewares and I realized the demographic changes. The car dealers and BMV were filled with minorities and immigrants, the stores were staffed by a lot of minorities.

How did I not see this happening? COVID work at home 2020-2021, lots of business travel in 2022 to mid-2024, and my son getting his license in 2020 and doing most of the food shopping and take-out pickup until he went to college.

So I started looking into this and found the planning document from around 2018 that lamented the town was "homogeneous" being 85% white. And we lacked "housing diversity" with mostly single family homes which are an "inefficient" use of public services because they are spread out over more land. It said we needed more "housing choice", with apartments, mixed-use developments, and high-density developments. I don't know how a Republican council fell for this leftist shit. Maybe the developers sold them a bill of goods, maybe there were payoffs, I don't know. They seemed to be chasing retention of young professionals that would normally move into the city or north side. Other towns to the north and south have built "city living" spaces in their old downtowns with businesses on the first floor and apartments on 2nd/3rd floors. I don't see many businesses moving in as the downtowns already had as many businesses as they could sustain.

What has been the result? A rapid influx of Nigerian immigrants (not sure if they are CBP1 asylum opportunists or chain migration), and also Sikh's, and a bunch of "city dwellers". We now have 16% ESL kids in the schools and 49% reduced/free lunch. Mind you this is in a town where most new single family developments are posting prices on billboards of $400K's and $500K's. Some of the immigrants pool money to buy a house and have a bunch of people living there to afford it.

I found out about one low income apartment complex behind the Wal-Mart that is filled with "city dwellers" now. The one obviously visible apartment complex I was previously aware of I am told has a lot of the Nigerians and also has at least some units with income caps. I can't find much info on the low income units though.

I have searched low income and section 8 and can't find much info. I suspect that various new developments have a % of low income units set aside? Maybe there is some federal funding or tax incentive to do this? I really don't know. But clearly we are getting a lot of minorities that cannot afford the single family housing developments. If someone can help explain how this all works I'd really appreciate it.

It seems there is more crime - the brawl at the Texas Roadhouse I posted a few months ago was similar to Spirit Airlines or Carnival Cruise brawls. My retired Vietnam veteran neighbor got body checked and threatened by two hood rats at the Wal-Mart. He had left his gun in the car but managed to stare them down. And also sketchy driving and some accidents by what appear to be drivers without a lot of experience.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:

quote:

boomers are wealthier than they've ever been, and not because they're smarter or better equipped, they were simply first to arrive and have done everything that can to pull the ladder up behind them.

Yeah... but they can't take it with them.
That generation is starting to give up the power they've had over others for a long time.

Are they? Look at the age of people in Congress and the Presidency. As Boomers retire and get Social Security and Medicare, they will fight to keep every cent and stick it to the much poorer young people paying the ~15% payroll taxes (half by employee, half by employer) to support these programs. Literally those with the lowest net work pay to support those with the highest net worth.

I am GenX with pre-boomer parents, and we are largely ignored in most discussions. We were the last analog generation that grew up without helicopter parents, roaming free and unsupervised as kids, but never having anything really bad happen. Boomers and Millennials and Gen Z are all the talk is about.