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Member
Picture of maladat
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
Those computer models are illustrative of how primitive still is our ability to predict the weather.

Just about any member here could have drawn that plate of spaghetti. You know it's true. They've got the damn thing going everywhere. Anyone can predict that! Those predictions are next to useless, and this is when they have tons of historical data to feed onto the computers! Laughable!

I love when local weathermen are tracking a storm and they say "our computer models don't agree." Is that so? Any idea why that might be, Mr. Wizard?

Ridiculous! Useless! Thirty-seven supercomputers running 24/7 and you still don't know jack shit.

Mother Earth shall guide that storm on a whim and you just have to prepare for the worst if you're anywhere near that pasta on the screen.


You're right that our models are not very good for predicting hurricane tracks, but it isn't QUITE as bad as the "plate of spaghetti" PASig posted - those aren't predictions for Dorian's track, those are the actual paths of a bunch of past storms.

Here's the map of the predicted paths from a bunch of different models.

 
Posts: 6319 | Location: CA | Registered: January 24, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of RichardC
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I like the dark green track.


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Posts: 16276 | Location: Florida | Registered: June 23, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Get my pies
outta the oven!

Picture of PASig
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by RichardC:
I like the dark green track.


We are all praying for a hard right turn out into the Atlantic!


 
Posts: 35040 | Location: Pennsylvania | Registered: November 12, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I saw an article on PMSNBC- "Why Hurricanes are getting stronger and wetter........."

What I've found is millennials and modern people have an historical perspective that starts when they became conscious of the world round them.


____________________________________________________

The butcher with the sharpest knife has the warmest heart.
 
Posts: 13511 | Location: Bottom of Lake Washington | Registered: March 06, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Ice age heat wave,
cant complain.
Picture of MikeGLI
posted Hide Post
My local costco had about 20 people waiting in line for propane. I wanted to tell the Ace Hardware and Uhaul had no lines and you only pay for what you get.

Oh well.




NRA Life Member
Steak: Rare. Coffee: Black. Bourbon: Neat.
 
Posts: 9760 | Location: Orlando, Florida | Registered: July 12, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Savor the limelight
posted Hide Post
Southwest Florida Water Management District's (SWFWMD, aka Swiftmud) very own Phil Flood is on the job!

"Right now, it is a balancing act for the South Florida Water Management District prepping for the impacts of Hurricane Dorian. They are checking canal levels to prevent overflowing.

Phil Flood, with the SFWMD, said that comes with being in the flood business.

“We do want to maintain the communities safe and dry,” Flood said."

Link
 
Posts: 11839 | Location: SWFL | Registered: October 10, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of just1tym
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This is the part that really gets my goat. This is at the point my wife is now starting to run around like a chicken with her head cut off. What if? What if? What if? I haven't any answers why do you keep asking me!!

I can't answer any more questions as to where this thing may be going than the man in the moon. I say, stop panicking it looks to be on a more northward track....Her- But, but, what if??? PLEASE STOP!!

Just have a plan, get some supplies, be prepared as much as the worst case scenario and thats it! Man, how many years have we been doing this, umm like over sixty now living south of Miami, thats a lot of hurricanes and tropical storms!!


Regards, Will G.
 
Posts: 9660 | Location: 140 mi to Margaritaville, FL | Registered: January 02, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of just1tym
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quote:
Originally posted by trapper189:
Southwest Florida Water Management District's (SWFWMD, aka Swiftmud) very own Phil Flood is on the job!

"Right now, it is a balancitrict prepping for the impacts of Hurricane Dorian. They are checking canal levels to prevent overflowing.ng act for the South Florida Water Management Dis

Phil Flood, with the SFWMD, said that comes with being in the flood business.

“We do want to maintain the communities safe and dry,” Flood said."

Link


Good reminder, I've got to drop the water in the pool, thanks!


Regards, Will G.
 
Posts: 9660 | Location: 140 mi to Margaritaville, FL | Registered: January 02, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Bought another tank of propane today and some other misc. items

I am typically pretty ‘disaster ready’

(Tampa area)

—————————-


Proverbs 27:17 - As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another.
 
Posts: 8940 | Location: Florida | Registered: September 20, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by just1tym:
This is the part that really gets my goat. This is at the point my wife is now starting to run around like a chicken with her head cut off. What if? What if? What if? I haven't any answers why do you keep asking me!!

I can't answer any more questions as to where this thing may be going than the man in the moon. I say, stop panicking it looks to be on a more northward track....Her- But, but, what if??? PLEASE STOP!!

Just have a plan, get some supplies, be prepared as much as the worst case scenario and thats it! Man, how many years have we been doing this, umm like over sixty now living south of Miami, thats a lot of hurricanes and tropical storms!!



Well, why don't you just take your wife to DISNEY WORLD this weekend????? Big Grin Big Grin Big Grin
 
Posts: 21421 | Registered: June 12, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Peace through
superior firepower
Picture of parabellum
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by just1tym:
This is the part that really gets my goat. This is at the point my wife is now starting to run around like a chicken with her head cut off. What if? What if? What if? I haven't any answers why do you keep asking me!!

I can't answer any more questions as to where this thing may be going than the man in the moon. I say, stop panicking it looks to be on a more northward track....Her- But, but, what if??? PLEASE STOP!!
Dramatic predictions equals panicked people equals more viewers, who are viewing for longer intervals equals increased ratings equals $$$$.
 
Posts: 109749 | Registered: January 20, 2000Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
quote:
Originally posted by just1tym:
This is the part that really gets my goat. This is at the point my wife is now starting to run around like a chicken with her head cut off. What if? What if? What if? I haven't any answers why do you keep asking me!!

I can't answer any more questions as to where this thing may be going than the man in the moon. I say, stop panicking it looks to be on a more northward track....Her- But, but, what if??? PLEASE STOP!!
Dramatic predictions equals panicked people equals more viewers, who are viewing for longer intervals equals increased ratings equals $$$$.


It's actually better for the complete, brain dead idiots that live in Florida. I would say that a good 40-50% of people don't prep for a hurricane at all, have no food in their house, no gas in the car, nada, oh besides a 12 pack of beer. It's incredibly surprising.
 
Posts: 21421 | Registered: June 12, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Stangosaurus Rex
Picture of Tommydogg
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Awesome, tonight's update has it coming ashore as a strong cat 4 pretty much where Iive. I'm probably 10 miles inland. Not that I generally care what europeans have to say, but more of them are having the storm hook back out to sea with a graze.


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Beth Greene
 
Posts: 7846 | Location: South Florida | Registered: January 09, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of Beanhead
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We just had our daughter leave school from Jacksonville...they cancelled school tomorrow afternoon and Tuesday. It’s likely they won’t have school Wednesday. We will see what happens Sunday night.

Be safe to all that are staying put..
 
Posts: 1371 | Location: Georgia | Registered: May 27, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
We just had our daughter leave school from Jacksonville...they cancelled school tomorrow afternoon and Tuesday. It’s likely they won’t have school Wednesday. We will see what happens Sunday night.


Jacksonville hardly ever gets hit, but they have moved the FSU opener to Tallahassee to be on the safe side. It will help with evacuation traffic.
 
Posts: 17643 | Location: Stuck at home | Registered: January 02, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of FlyingScot
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quote:
Originally posted by Tommydogg:
Awesome, tonight's update has it coming ashore as a strong cat 4 pretty much where Iive. I'm probably 10 miles inland. Not that I generally care what europeans have to say, but more of them are having the storm hook back out to sea with a graze.


That update sucked. Good luck and here is hoping they are wrong.





“Forigive your enemy, but remember the bastard’s name.”

-Scottish proverb
 
Posts: 1999 | Location: South Florida | Registered: December 24, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Thank you
Very little
Picture of HRK
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Don’t forget to hit the atm, if powers out, atms don’t work, credit card systems don’t work, cash is king
 
Posts: 24542 | Location: Gunshine State | Registered: November 07, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Stangosaurus Rex
Picture of Tommydogg
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by HRK:
Don’t forget to hit the atm, if powers out, atms don’t work, credit card systems don’t work, cash is king


I can take out 400 a day from Navy Federal, so I got today's disbursement!


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"I Get It Now"

Beth Greene
 
Posts: 7846 | Location: South Florida | Registered: January 09, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Stangosaurus Rex
Picture of Tommydogg
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by FlyingScot:


That update sucked. Good luck and here is hoping they are wrong.


The Treasure Coast is supposed to be quiet!


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"I Get It Now"

Beth Greene
 
Posts: 7846 | Location: South Florida | Registered: January 09, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
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Make sure it is smaller bills.
 
Posts: 17643 | Location: Stuck at home | Registered: January 02, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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