August 29, 2019, 02:26 PM
maladatTracking Dorian
quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
Those computer models are illustrative of how primitive still is our ability to predict the weather.
Just about any member here could have drawn that plate of spaghetti. You know it's true. They've got the damn thing going everywhere. Anyone can predict that! Those predictions are next to useless, and this is when they have tons of historical data to feed onto the computers! Laughable!
I love when local weathermen are tracking a storm and they say "our computer models don't agree." Is that so? Any idea why that might be, Mr. Wizard?
Ridiculous! Useless! Thirty-seven supercomputers running 24/7 and you still don't know jack shit.
Mother Earth shall guide that storm on a whim and you just have to prepare for the worst if you're anywhere near that pasta on the screen.
You're right that our models are not very good for predicting hurricane tracks, but it isn't QUITE as bad as the "plate of spaghetti" PASig posted - those aren't predictions for Dorian's track, those are the actual paths of a bunch of past storms.
Here's the map of the predicted paths from a bunch of different models.
August 29, 2019, 02:28 PM
RichardCI like the dark green track.
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August 29, 2019, 02:33 PM
PASigquote:
Originally posted by RichardC:
I like the dark green track.
We are all praying for a hard right turn out into the Atlantic!
August 29, 2019, 02:38 PM
braillediverI saw an article on PMSNBC- "Why Hurricanes are getting stronger and wetter........."
What I've found is millennials and modern people have an historical perspective that starts when they became conscious of the world round them.
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The butcher with the sharpest knife has the warmest heart.
August 29, 2019, 02:46 PM
MikeGLIMy local costco had about 20 people waiting in line for propane. I wanted to tell the Ace Hardware and Uhaul had no lines and you only pay for what you get.
Oh well.
NRA Life Member
Steak: Rare. Coffee: Black. Bourbon: Neat. August 29, 2019, 05:19 PM
trapper189Southwest Florida Water Management District's (SWFWMD, aka Swiftmud) very own Phil Flood is on the job!
"Right now, it is a balancing act for the South Florida Water Management District prepping for the impacts of Hurricane Dorian. They are checking canal levels to prevent overflowing.
Phil Flood, with the SFWMD, said that comes with being in the flood business.
“We do want to maintain the communities safe and dry,” Flood said."
LinkAugust 29, 2019, 05:23 PM
just1tymThis is the part that really gets my goat. This is at the point my wife is now starting to run around like a chicken with her head cut off. What if? What if? What if? I haven't any answers why do you keep asking me!!
I can't answer any more questions as to where this thing may be going than the man in the moon. I say, stop panicking it looks to be on a more northward track....Her- But, but, what if??? PLEASE STOP!!
Just have a plan, get some supplies, be prepared as much as the worst case scenario and thats it! Man, how many years have we been doing this, umm like over sixty now living south of Miami, thats a lot of hurricanes and tropical storms!!
Regards, Will G.
August 29, 2019, 05:31 PM
just1tymquote:
Originally posted by trapper189:
Southwest Florida Water Management District's (SWFWMD, aka Swiftmud) very own Phil Flood is on the job!
"Right now, it is a balancitrict prepping for the impacts of Hurricane Dorian. They are checking canal levels to prevent overflowing.ng act for the South Florida Water Management DisPhil Flood, with the SFWMD, said that comes with being in the flood business.
“We do want to maintain the communities safe and dry,” Flood said."
Link
Good reminder, I've got to drop the water in the pool, thanks!
Regards, Will G.
August 29, 2019, 08:14 PM
Sig209Bought another tank of propane today and some other misc. items
I am typically pretty ‘disaster ready’
(Tampa area)
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Proverbs 27:17 - As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another.
August 29, 2019, 09:51 PM
jimmy123xquote:
Originally posted by just1tym:
This is the part that really gets my goat. This is at the point my wife is now starting to run around like a chicken with her head cut off. What if? What if? What if? I haven't any answers why do you keep asking me!!
I can't answer any more questions as to where this thing may be going than the man in the moon. I say, stop panicking it looks to be on a more northward track....Her- But, but, what if??? PLEASE STOP!!
Just have a plan, get some supplies, be prepared as much as the worst case scenario and thats it! Man, how many years have we been doing this, umm like over sixty now living south of Miami, thats a lot of hurricanes and tropical storms!!
Well, why don't you just take your wife to DISNEY WORLD this weekend?????
August 29, 2019, 10:11 PM
parabellumquote:
Originally posted by just1tym:
This is the part that really gets my goat. This is at the point my wife is now starting to run around like a chicken with her head cut off. What if? What if? What if? I haven't any answers why do you keep asking me!!
I can't answer any more questions as to where this thing may be going than the man in the moon. I say, stop panicking it looks to be on a more northward track....Her- But, but, what if??? PLEASE STOP!!
Dramatic predictions equals panicked people equals more viewers, who are viewing for longer intervals equals increased ratings equals
$$$$.
August 29, 2019, 10:19 PM
jimmy123xquote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
quote:
Originally posted by just1tym:
This is the part that really gets my goat. This is at the point my wife is now starting to run around like a chicken with her head cut off. What if? What if? What if? I haven't any answers why do you keep asking me!!
I can't answer any more questions as to where this thing may be going than the man in the moon. I say, stop panicking it looks to be on a more northward track....Her- But, but, what if??? PLEASE STOP!!
Dramatic predictions equals panicked people equals more viewers, who are viewing for longer intervals equals increased ratings equals
$$$$.
It's actually better for the complete, brain dead idiots that live in Florida. I would say that a good 40-50% of people don't prep for a hurricane at all, have no food in their house, no gas in the car, nada, oh besides a 12 pack of beer. It's incredibly surprising.
August 29, 2019, 10:20 PM
TommydoggAwesome, tonight's update has it coming ashore as a strong cat 4 pretty much where Iive. I'm probably 10 miles inland. Not that I generally care what europeans have to say, but more of them are having the storm hook back out to sea with a graze.
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"I Get It Now"
Beth Greene
August 29, 2019, 10:24 PM
BeanheadWe just had our daughter leave school from Jacksonville...they cancelled school tomorrow afternoon and Tuesday. It’s likely they won’t have school Wednesday. We will see what happens Sunday night.
Be safe to all that are staying put..
August 29, 2019, 10:30 PM
ZSMICHAELquote:
We just had our daughter leave school from Jacksonville...they cancelled school tomorrow afternoon and Tuesday. It’s likely they won’t have school Wednesday. We will see what happens Sunday night.
Jacksonville hardly ever gets hit, but they have moved the FSU opener to Tallahassee to be on the safe side. It will help with evacuation traffic.
August 29, 2019, 10:31 PM
FlyingScotquote:
Originally posted by Tommydogg:
Awesome, tonight's update has it coming ashore as a strong cat 4 pretty much where Iive. I'm probably 10 miles inland. Not that I generally care what europeans have to say, but more of them are having the storm hook back out to sea with a graze.
That update sucked. Good luck and here is hoping they are wrong.
“Forigive your enemy, but remember the bastard’s name.”
-Scottish proverb August 29, 2019, 10:40 PM
HRKDon’t forget to hit the atm, if powers out, atms don’t work, credit card systems don’t work, cash is king
August 29, 2019, 10:46 PM
Tommydoggquote:
Originally posted by HRK:
Don’t forget to hit the atm, if powers out, atms don’t work, credit card systems don’t work, cash is king
I can take out 400 a day from Navy Federal, so I got today's disbursement!
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"I Get It Now"
Beth Greene
August 29, 2019, 10:48 PM
Tommydoggquote:
Originally posted by FlyingScot:
That update sucked. Good luck and here is hoping they are wrong.
The Treasure Coast is supposed to be quiet!
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"I Get It Now"
Beth Greene
August 29, 2019, 10:50 PM
ZSMICHAELMake sure it is smaller bills.