Trump has made it pretty clear that the US isn’t giving Ukraine shit. If he decides to make the Javs available the UN will be paying for them not the US. Trump has made the statement every chance he gets that it was Biden that was giving them any and everything on the US dime.

David Lee

quote:

Russia hasn't won anything in over 3 years.

Ukraine War:

Russia Has Won the Ukraine War and ‘Defeated’ NATO

https://nationalsecurityjourna...r-and-defeated-nato/

Key Point and Summary – The war in Ukraine is effectively over, with Russia on a clear path to achieving its objectives through a grinding war of attrition that has exhausted Ukraine and outlasted Western and NATO resolve.

The idea that Russia might still lose the war in Ukraine has become a kind of security blanket for Western elites – a comforting illusion clutched in think tanks, editorial pages, and official briefings long after the battlefield realities have changed. We are now well past the phase where optimism could be excused as ignorance. The facts are in. Ukraine is exhausted. The West is demoralized. And Russia, despite its many internal challenges, is grinding toward its war aims with brutal consistency.

Let’s be clear: if by “lose” we mean military defeat on the battlefield, collapse of the Russian economy, or regime implosion in Moscow, then no – Russia is not going to lose. Not this year, and not under the current trajectory. All the major structural forces – military, economic, political—are now moving in Russia’s favor. The war is not over, but the outcome is no longer up for grabs.

Start with the military situation, because that’s the foundation of everything else. On the ground, Ukraine’s strategic position is deteriorating by the month. Mobilization efforts have stalled. Recruitment has collapsed. The average age of a frontline soldier is now nearing 45. Desertion and draft-dodging are spreading, and Western aid – though still flowing – is increasingly mismatched to Ukraine’s real needs. You can send as many artillery shells and drone kits as you like, but you cannot manufacture trained infantry out of nothing. And that’s what Ukraine is short of: not resolve, not hardware, but men.

Meanwhile, Russia’s army has evolved. It’s no longer the chaotic, overstretched force that stumbled out into Ukraine in February 2022. It has absorbed its losses, adapted to the terrain, and reverted to what it does best: attritional warfare, backed by overwhelming firepower and deep reserves of manpower. Russia doesn’t need to stage flashy counter-offensives or overrun all of Ukraine. It only needs to advance slowly, dig in, and bleed Ukraine white – while maintaining pressure long enough to outlast Western political will. And that’s exactly what it’s doing.

Which brings us to the economic front. There’s a persistent myth in Western capitals that Russia is teetering under the weight of sanctions –that the ruble is crumbling, the oligarchs are restless, and the economy is one shock away from implosion. This is wishful thinking. Sanctions have hurt, yes, but they have also catalyzed a strategic decoupling from the West that was probably inevitable anyway. Russia has reoriented its economy toward Asia. It’s selling oil to India, natural gas to China, and arms to anyone willing to pay in non-Western currencies. The parallel financial system is crude but functional. And the state is compensating for consumer losses with heavy military-industrial spending – spending that, unlike in the West, is tied directly to battlefield outcomes and regime survival.

The IMF projects modest growth for Russia in 2025. Inflation is high, but not catastrophic. Unemployment is low. And industrial output – especially in arms production – is booming. Yes, living standards have declined. But the state has managed the pain selectively, shielding key groups – soldiers, pensioners, the security apparatus – while letting the rest of society absorb the shock. It’s crude economic triage. But it works. And it buys time.

So what about regime collapse? Could some internal crisis – a palace coup, a wave of protests, a sudden loss of elite cohesion – bring the war to a halt? Again, highly unlikely. Not impossible, of course. But deeply implausible.

Putin’s regime is more secure now than it was two years ago. The failed Prigozhin mutiny, far from exposing weakness, served as a loyalty test that flushed out the reckless and the wavering. The security services are fully mobilized. The political elite is terrified of instability. And the Russian public, despite some signs of war fatigue, remains either supportive or apathetic. This is not a revolutionary moment. There is no Lenin in exile, no mass discontent, no split in the ruling class. There is only war – distant for most, tragic for some, but not regime-ending for anyone.

Even in the long term, regime change is a mirage. Putin’s system is designed not for flexibility or innovation, but for endurance. It absorbs shocks. It represses dissent. And above all, it adapts slowly but effectively to strategic realities. This is not a brittle autocracy. It is a modern authoritarian state with deep reservoirs of control – and a clear sense of geopolitical purpose.

The real fantasy is not that Russia might lose the war. The real fantasy is that anyone in the West still believes in a path to Ukrainian victory. That moment passed long ago – somewhere between the collapse of the 2023 counteroffensive and the current artillery shortages. What we’re witnessing now is not a war of liberation or defense, but a war of inertia. Ukraine is fighting because it cannot stop. The West is funding it because it cannot admit failure. And Russia is advancing because it has no incentive not to.

The grim truth is that Russia is winning the war – methodically, incrementally, and without apology. It is winning not by blitzkrieg, but by attrition. It is not trying to take all of Ukraine, only the parts it considers vital: the four annexed oblasts, the land bridge to Crimea, and a neutralized rump to the west. And it is succeeding – not because it has outmaneuvered NATO, but because it has outlasted the illusion that victory was ever going to look like the restoration of Ukraine’s 1991 borders.

What About the Drone Attack? It Won’t Change Things
So is there any way Russia could still lose? Only at the level of fantasy. Only in the realm of narratives unmoored from facts – as with the delusional fantasies regarding Operation Spiderweb. The battlefield favors Moscow. The economic sanctions have failed to break its will. The regime has stabilized. And the West has no plan – none – for reversing any of this.

Which means it’s time to start thinking like realists. The question is no longer how to defeat Russia, but how to limit the damage of a war we have already lost in everything but name. That’s not a message anyone in Washington, Brussels, or Kyiv wants to hear. But it’s the only honest one left.

The tragedy of Ukraine is not that it fought. It’s that it was led to believe victory was possible – when all along, the most it could hope for was survival. And even that now hangs by a thread.

This is from Forbes:

Ukraine sprawls across 233,000 square miles, 19% of which is under Russian occupation. At the current rates of advance and loss, the Russians would capture the rest of Ukraine in the year 2256 at the cost of 101 million casualties. The current population of Russia is 144 million.

Do I think that Ukrainian forces are going to march into Moscow as the victor? Of course not. But is it possible that the Russians will grow tired enough to leave? They spent years in Afghanistan before they quit. So it's possible they will.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/d...-to-capture-ukraine/

Anyone can find some think tank analysis that will support a variety of outcomes. Some more or less mostly favorable to Ukraine (with only a very tiny territorial concession) to others predicting a collapse of the Ukrainian military at some point. Who knows? I don't.

I know, personally, it has become all but impossible for most Russians to leave the country, as they cannot exchange rubles.

I know an oral surgeon for the oligarch class, who is now the only person in her family with regular access to hard currency.

The other thing this has set up, is a diaspora of “actual Russians”.

Russia likes to use the “protection” of people who fled the oligarchy, as a justification for invasion - and 90% jackasses who flee Russia, welcome the invasions.

They are a sick, broken, diseased culture. (There are good Russians. Most of those fled Putin many years ago.)

Rejecting the settlement of people who are “fleeing” also sets up political issues with Moscow.

quote:

I know, personally, it has become all but impossible for most Russians to leave the country, as they cannot exchange rubles.

I know more than personally it depends. Countries with branches of Russian banks such as Armenia & Georgia are OK. Rubles are exchanged for local curriency, then deposited in a Georgian bank then converted to Euros or US Dollars.

quote:

Which means it’s time to start thinking like realists. The question is no longer how to defeat Russia, but how to limit the damage of a war we have already lost in everything but name. That’s not a message anyone in Washington, Brussels, or Kyiv wants to hear. But it’s the only honest one left.

The tragedy of Ukraine is not that it fought. It’s that it was led to believe victory was possible – when all along, the most it could hope for was survival. And even that now hangs by a thread.

Yes, I agree with the conclusion of this article.

The young people of Ukraine don't want to fight anymore. They are fleeing:

Germany And Poland Are Growing Weary Of Ukrainian Refugees And War

Via Remix News,

New data from Germany and Poland is putting a spotlight on aid to Ukraine, including welcoming refugees who end up receiving benefits from the state. These countries are now asking just how much more they are willing to give.

Ever since Russia’s invasion in 2022, Ukrainian citizens aged 18 to 60 have been able to leave the country only with official permission. But at the end of August, Kyiv decided to liberalize the law, allowing young men aged 18 to 22 to travel abroad.

According to data from the German Interior Ministry, the number of Ukrainians coming to Germany per week increased from just 19 in August to over 1,000 in September.

In October, the number increased even further to 1,400-1,800 per week.

Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder has now called on the EU to respond to a massive influx of Ukrainian refugees.

“We must control and significantly limit the rapidly increasing influx of young men from Ukraine,” Söder said in an interview with the Bild daily, as cited by Do Rzeczy.

“The EU and Berlin must influence Ukraine to change its liberalized exit regulations again,” he added.

A new survey by the INSA Institute for “Bild” has also shown that the majority of Germans do not want to finance benefits for refugees from Ukraine.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geop...ian-refugees-and-war

But the Ukraine is Winning. Another 30 years, 3 Trillion Dollars and the Russians will grow tired enough to leave.

quote:

Originally posted by braillediver:
But the Ukraine is Winning. Another 30 years, 3 Trillion Dollars and the Russians will grow tired enough to leave.

Zelensky and his selfish decision to not surrender on day one is now costing his forces north of 1500 casualties a day.


https://tass.com/defense/2031881


Military operation in Ukraine
18 Oct, 06:45
Ukrainian forces lost around 1,565 troops in past 24 hours — Russian Defense Ministry
Russian forces have also struck a drone operator training center of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine
MOSCOW, October 18. /TASS/. Russian servicemen eliminated approximately 1,565 Ukrainian fighters over the past 24 hours, the Russian Defense Ministry reported.

According to the ministry, in the area of responsibility of the North battlegroup, the enemy lost up to 205 troops; in the West battlegroup’s zone - over 230; the South battlegroup’s zone - up to 195; the Center battlegroup’s zone - up to 580; the East battlegroup’s zone - more than 280; and in the Dnepr battlegroup’s direction - over 75 servicemen.

Russian forces have also struck a drone operator training center of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, a Ukrainian air defense radar station, as well as enterprises of Ukraine’s military-industrial comple.

"Operational-tactical aviation, attack unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops, and artillery units of the Russian Armed Forces’ groupings carried out strikes on transport infrastructure facilities, enterprises of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex supporting the activities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a drone operator training center of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, a workshop for the production and assembly of unmanned aerial vehicles, a Ukrainian air defense radar station, as well as temporary deployment points of Ukrainian armed formations in 156 areas," the ministry said.

^^^^^^^^^^^
The above is from Tass, the Russian news agency. I could post dozens of links that describe all kinds of various victories by Ukrainian forces. If I did I would be skewered by many who would say you can't believe anything from the Ukrainians. What's my point? Each side is going to push news that is favorable to their own side. No surprise there. The Enforcer channel on YouTube streams daily videos of Ukrainian drones blowing up Russian oil refineries, trains, and other military targets. The channel is run by two Americans. https://www.youtube.com/result...the+enforcer+channel

The Russians have kept busy using their drones to blow up kindergartens and kill children. it was deliberate. Why. It was done in the day using multiple drones.

https://nypost.com/2025/10/22/...-with-killer-drones/

Wow, our four biggest Ukraine drum beaters all posting on the last two pages. Something big must be on the near horizon.

quote:

Originally posted by wcb6092:
Ukraine War:

Russia Has Won the Ukraine War and ‘Defeated’ NATO

https://nationalsecurityjourna...r-and-defeated-nato/

We will see how emboldened Moscow is when Trumps new sanctions take affect November 21st. China and India are now stopping their purchases of Russian oil. His ghost fleet of tankers will be halted. Putins war time economy cannot produce enough to sustain against simple drone destruction on any givin day. Ukraine wants long range tools to partly destroy a facility building Irainian Shaheed drones, staffed by 20,000 N.Koreans. I don't get why they don't ramp up their Flamingo and Long Neptune missles.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: parabellum,

Russian Infantry Operating Inside Pokrovsk - Strategic Ukrainian City's Fall Imminent

https://www.zerohedge.com/geop...-citys-fall-imminent

The key logistical hub of Ukraine's eastern front - Pokrovsk, has been under steady contention for much of the past year, with Russian forces spending slow, methodical efforts pushing westward to flank just south of the city.

For the majority of the war Pokrovsk has acted as the logistical hub and rear operations base for Ukraine's eastern defensive lines. It sits astride both a key railroad juncture and the highway to Ukraine’s fourth-largest metro, Dnipro. The city's defensive positions are a final obstacle to Russia's access to most of the region. If Pokrovsk falls Russian forces will be able to more easily flank entrenched troops in the north and south of the country.

It's capture at this point looks imminent, given Ukrainian media is confirming Russian infantry have infiltrated the main logistical district of the city. It's somewhat sizeable, as it had a prewar population of some 60,000.

"At least 200 Russian infantry armed with automatic rifles, machine guns, and hand-held rockets were moving freely in the southern districts of city, at times ambushing Ukrainian defense forces still generally in control of central and northern districts, according to public statements by army officers to Ukrainian media," according to Kyiv Post on Wednesday.

Russia's military has said that Ukrainian forces have been suffering steady and immense losses seeking to defend Pokrovsk.

"Every day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) sends up to 120 soldiers to the town of Krasnoarmeysk (Ukrainian name - Pokrovsk) in the Donetsk People’s Republic, which indicates its enormous losses in the area," military expert Vitaly Kiselev told TASS."

"The enemy still has a strong hold on the city, and has no plans of retreating," he said. "They still have equipment and manpower here, all the more so that small units of about 15-20 men are being regularly sent there as reinforcements."

"In fact, groups of 15-20 people arrive there five or six times a day. This shows enormous losses in this area," the analyst added.

The loss of the primary rail lines and highway routes in and out of Pokrovsk would cut resources to Ukrainian units across the Donbas and possibly force them to retreat before running out of supplies. This would mean an immediate and sweeping Russian advance all along the eastern lines.

Where Putin goes from there is hard to say, but a campaign back into Western Ukraine, this time using attrition tactics, would not be unthinkable - especially given the past months have seen incursions in the central oblast of Dnipropetrovsk which began this past summer.

Pokrovsk is, interestingly, valuable for another reason that's not immediately apparent: It acts as high ground in a nation of lowlands, and high ground allows for more effective use of drones because the signals travel further and are harder to jam with electronic interference. While US-brokered ceasefire efforts have stalled, these developments give Moscow huge leverage if there should be a return to the negotiating table.

Ukrainian source:

Ukraine war latest: Pokrovsk's fate hangs in the balance

https://kyivindependent.com/uk...t-update-2025-10-29/

Russian soldiers have advanced further into the city of Pokrovsk, threatening not only to take the city, but to complete a larger encirclement of the surrounding area, as independent analysts and commanders report a serious deterioration of the Ukrainian position in the area.

The defense of the major city in Donetsk Oblast, which has held out for over a year of heavy fighting as one of the main hotspots of the front line, looks to have begun falling apart as Russian soldiers in their hundreds have broken into the city limits, spreading in all directions.

According to the Ukrainian military, 11,000 Russian troops have been concentrated around Pokrovsk in an attempt to surround the city, with President Volodymyr Zelensky telling journalists on Oct. 27 that Russian forces outnumbered Ukrainian defenders 8 to 1.

Speaking during a visit to a military hospital in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that both Pokrovsk and the embattled city of Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast were encircled.

In a bizarre comment — especially considering the recent uptick in fatal attacks on journalists near the front line — Putin added that Russian forces would be prepared to cease fire in the respective areas "for a few hours" so that Ukrainian and foreign journalists could enter, speak to Ukrainian soldiers, and "confirm for themselves the state that these surrounded forces are in."

Ukrainian commanders' reports as well as open-source data show that Putin's claim of a complete encirclement is still far from reality, but the situation is undoubtedly highly dynamic and deteriorating for the defending side.

More at link

This message has been edited. Last edited by: wcb6092,

Ukraine Won't Be Able To Reclaim All Territories Seized By Russia, Italy Admits

https://www.zerohedge.com/geop...-russia-italy-admits

The top commander of a NATO-member army has finally spoken the quiet part out loud - something which leadership in Brussels won't bring itself to admit - on a public level at least...

Ukraine will not be able to retake all territories seized by Russia since 2014, even with the help of Western allies, said Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto - in remarks being widely noticed in both Ukrainian and Russian media. "Today, everyone considers it impossible to reclaim the territories lost by Ukraine in 2014 and after February 2022. Russia will never give them up, and Ukraine will not have the strength to retake them on its own, even with our help," Crosetto said.

Citing the Italian defense chief further, RBC-Ukraine writes, "According to him, Russian leader Vladimir Putin cannot back down, in part because he changed the constitution, declaring the occupied territories Russian in every sense, thereby putting himself in a position where he cannot negotiate."

And yet the reality is that the Zelensky government and its backers in NATO still appear completely unwilling to negotiate based on ceding territory.

Zelensky has refused to even recognized Russia's hold over Crimea, and Moscow is certainly never going to give up Crimea and home to its Black Sea naval fleet.

"It is up to them [the Ukrainians] to decide what is the greater sacrifice: conceding territory or continuing a bloody war that could intensify. Ukrainian losses amount to 520,000 people, while Russian losses exceed 1 million. The difference is that Ukrainians are aware of their losses, whereas the Russian people have no idea," Crosetto continued.

more at link

$100 Million Corruption Scandal Rocks Ukraine; Zelensky Associate Flees Country Before Police Raids

Via Remix News,

In yet another sign of the rampant corruption in Ukraine, Ukrainian security forces raided the apartment of Timur Mindich, a businessman associated with President Volodymyr Zelensky. However, the oligarch had already left the country just hours before, likely after being tipped off by an insider.

Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) says that $100 million is believed to have been siphoned off due to a “money laundering operation,” and other associates were involved.

The 15-month investigation featured 1,000 hours of wiretapping and resulted in 70 raids, according to NABU.

There are numerous reports speculating that Mindich, who has close connections to Israel and just celebrated his birthday there, fled to Israel, but so far, most media reports do not disclose his destination country.

In a statement, NABU indicated that several individuals had formed a criminal gang and built “a large-scale corruption scheme to influence strategic enterprises in the public sector, in particular Energoatom.”

The scheme involved forcing Energoatom’s counterparties to pay kickbacks of approximately 10 to 15 percent of contract values in order to avoid having payments for services or goods blocked, or possibly losing their status as suppliers, the bureau reported.

NABU indicated that the raids and arrests were a part of an operation code-named “Midas,” with the initial investigations already launched in 2024.

“Particular attention was paid to cryptocurrencies. Most operations, including cash withdrawals, took place outside Ukraine. For example, during foreign delegations of representatives of state bodies and the management of state-owned energy sector enterprises,” NABU notes.
Zelensky’s deep ties with potential fugitive

In a sign that Ukraine’s love affair with Zelensky may be over, the Kyiv Independent is detailing how deeply entwined Zelensky is with Mindlich, writing:

Mindich, 46, is from the city of Dnipro in central Ukraine. He is a film producer and former business partner of Ukrainian oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky.

He reportedly has links to Israel. Mindich celebrated his birthday in Israel in September, returned to Ukraine in mid-October and then went to Israel again, according to Ukrainska Pravda’s sources.

Mindich is also a long-time friend of Zelensky, with whom he co-owned production company Kvartal 95 until Zelensky transferred his stake to partners after being elected president in 2019.

Mindich also co-owns Green Family Ltd, a Cypriot firm that co-founded film production companies in Russia, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).

Kolomoisky told Ukrainska Pravda in 2022 that Mindich had introduced him to Zelensky before he became president.

In 2019, Zelensky drove an armored car provided by Mindich, RFE/RL reported.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geop...flees-country-police

Energoatom corruption scheme suspects funded luxury houses for top officials

https://kyivindependent.com/suspects-in-energoatom-

Zelensky to impose sanctions against close associates following $100 million corruption scandal

https://kyivindependent.com/ze...n-probe-sources-say/

Two Ukrainian ministers implicated in major corruption scandal step down

https://kyivindependent.com/mi...mplicated-suspended/

quote:

Originally posted by Anush:

Zelensky to impose sanctions against close associates following $100 million corruption scandal

https://kyivindependent.com/mi...mplicated-suspended/

Seems like a good way to put a bullseye on your back if you were involved as well.

OPINION: Ukraine’s Battle Against Corruption Will Define Its Future
Ukraine’s leadership must show moral courage equal to its military courage. The country must demonstrate that no official, no matter how senior, is above the law.

Ukraine has faced numerous corruption scandals over the years, but the one now unravelling in Kyiv stands apart. The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) has uncovered what it calls the largest corruption scheme since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion – this time, within the country’s energy sector.

According to investigators, a 15-month probe and 70 coordinated raids have revealed a vast network of kickbacks within the state nuclear energy operator Energoatom. The scheme allegedly involved top officials collecting 10-15% of each contract’s value from company contractors. Such practices are not new to Ukraine – before the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, kickbacks reportedly reached 30%. Yet this revelation comes as a bitter shock to Ukrainian society now, amid rolling blackouts and deepening energy shortages.

https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/64121

And in other news, the sky is blue today.

It’s all so tiresome.

This thread is nearly three years old, and the war has gone on for nearly four. Some of us have been talking about corruption in Ukraine for a very long time now. How much more US taxpayer wealth extraction do we need to enable in this one?

Ukraine is corrupt and collapsing and the Russian side is just as bad:



From the UK Daily Mail

Kill a comrade or be killed: Three winters into Putin's war, his army is devouring itself. Conscripts shooting fellow recruits, officers executing men who disobey orders - and troops forced to fight one another to the death: DAVID PATRIKARAKOS


How much longer must this mess go on? I thought Trump was finally going to be able to knock some heads and get them to stop but so far it's not happening.