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Market situation: now and in the future. Login/Join 
Green grass and
high tides
Picture of old rugged cross
posted
Not sure what you want to call it.

A correction, a plunge, a crash or something else. But the last month has not been good.

Vanguard say's they are predicting a 60+% likely hood of a recession in 2023.

Their 10 year prediction is not one of great earnings either.

Yeah, I know stay the coarse. Buy at a cheaper price, yada, yada, yada.

Using history as a predictor to the future of the markets is always a popular sentiment.
Problem is, that this is a time in our nations history unlike any we have had in some 220 some odd years.

It is a time that could really hurt a lot of folks.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: old rugged cross,



"Practice like you want to play in the game"
 
Posts: 17579 | Registered: September 21, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
Nothing new here. We are in a recession and will get through it like all the others. Thank the Democrats for this one.
 
Posts: 13919 | Location: Stuck at home | Registered: January 02, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of mcrimm
posted Hide Post
I’ve been 90% cash for the last 18 months. I’m still very afraid of what lies ahead.



I'm sorry if I hurt you feelings when I called you stupid - I thought you already knew - Unknown
...................................
When you have no future, you live in the past. " Sycamore Row" by John Grisham
 
Posts: 3799 | Location: Saddlebrooke, Arizona | Registered: December 24, 2013Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Big Stack
posted Hide Post
A lot of what's driving the current downturn in the Ukraine war. The Russians now seem to be losing. If/when they give up, especially if Putin is driven out of power, there's going to be a huge rally.
 
Posts: 20940 | Registered: November 05, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Just because you can,
doesn't mean you should
posted Hide Post
Also depends on your age and a lot of other considerations.
If you're 30's and don't have a lot of net worth invested, who cares, time will take care of things.
If you're 55+ and have a lot of your net worth in the market to pay for retirement, you should look at things a bit differently, and should have started doing that months ago, or more.
You really need to be paying attention now, earlier would have been a lot better, but now otherwise.


___________________________
Avoid buying ChiCom/CCP products whenever possible.
 
Posts: 8187 | Location: NE GA | Registered: August 22, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of RichardC
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by ZSMICHAEL:
Nothing new here. We are in a recession and will get through it like all the others. Thank the Democrats for this one.


"Democrats"?

Look at The Fed, Uni-Party Congress, Uni-Party .Senate and the Executive branch over the last many decades.

And look at Venezuela as an indicator. We'll 'get through it'alright, but we won't like what is on the other end.


_____________________
 
Posts: 14384 | Location: Florida | Registered: June 23, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Fire begets Fire
Picture of SIGnified
posted Hide Post
“Screwed”

I have a lot in cash/treasuries. Will buy back in at some point. Probably dollar cost average back in once we’ve ground down some more.





"Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty."
~Robert A. Heinlein
 
Posts: 25827 | Location: dughouse | Registered: February 04, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
A teetotaling
beer aficionado
Picture of NavyGuy
posted Hide Post
Historically, the market will come back. It all depends on how much time you have. A 40 year old will get different advice than a 70 year old. I've been watching my holdings and getting out when things look right. Yeah I know timing the market is fools folly. Still in these times, when I see and out, I jump.



Men fight for liberty and win it with hard knocks. Their children, brought up easy, let it slip away again, poor fools. And their grandchildren are once more slaves.

-D.H. Lawrence
 
Posts: 10943 | Location: Fort Worth, Texas | Registered: February 07, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
quote:
And look at Venezuela as an indicator

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
LOL Are you kidding. We do not quite have a dictatorship or a socialist state that the progressive Democratic left would prefer. You looking for a free ride to Marthas Vineyard?
 
Posts: 13919 | Location: Stuck at home | Registered: January 02, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Diogenes' Quarry
Picture of at-home-daddy
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by NavyGuy:
Historically, the market will come back. It all depends on how much time you have. A 40 year old will get different advice than a 70 year old.


It's the folks like me who are around 55 -- not on the precipice of retirement yet not a distant shout from it, either -- that the moves get a little trickier, the strategy more murky. I've played a more defensive game the last year or so, but I still think I'm more at risk than is probably wise, given the chaos and uncertainty of the couple of years and the outlook that just doesn't seem to promise much in the way of a rapid fix.
 
Posts: 5059 | Location: Western WA  | Registered: October 20, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
and this little pig said:
posted Hide Post
I'm in my 70s and still working full time. My company has a 401K which is hemorrhaging daily. I only have 10 years into it and may just roll the thing over to my IRA. My IRA is VERY conservative and has not been losing value to date. I'd like to retire, but with the economy the way it is, I'm leery! Guess I'll keep working till I'm 80!!!
 
Posts: 3240 | Registered: February 07, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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posted Hide Post
^^^^^^^^^^^^
Watch out for taxes and the RMDs.
 
Posts: 13919 | Location: Stuck at home | Registered: January 02, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
If you see me running
try to keep up
Picture of mrvmax
posted Hide Post
In the long run the market will recover, the problem is that not every will be here in the long run. I suggested before and will suggest again - look into uranium ETF's and stocks. They have the potential to still make great gains, even through this cesspool of an economy.

Once I get within a couple years of retirement I will have 90% in cash, I will invest the other 10%. Unlike most, I am not trying to keep my principle in retirement, I just have to make sure I do not spend it all before I die or get senile (once I am senile I will not care anyway).
 
Posts: 3738 | Location: Friendswood Texas | Registered: August 24, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by NavyGuy:
Historically, the market will come back. It all depends on how much time you have. A 40 year old will get different advice than a 70 year old. I've been watching my holdings and getting out when things look right. Yeah I know timing the market is fools folly. Still in these times, when I see and out, I jump.


I agree. I've never been of the mind that you stay in a downward spiraling market. That whole thing that you just locked in your losses is BS. That's true only if you never get back in. You don't have to time the market perfectly.
 
Posts: 6980 | Registered: October 31, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of Leemur
posted Hide Post
Yeah I wanted to retire in my early 60s and a 10 year down market will screw my plans quite hard.
 
Posts: 13268 | Location: Shenandoah Valley, VA | Registered: October 16, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
His Royal Hiney
Picture of Rey HRH
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by mcrimm:
I’ve been 90% cash for the last 18 months. I’m still very afraid of what lies ahead.


You're 90% cash, what are you afraid of? If I were you, I'd be hoping the crash would come sooner than later and let there be no ambiguity that it is a crash so you can come in with confidence.

For unrelated reasons, I haven't finished a project I've been working on to get back to market. I started to go to cash middle of January and fully in cash end of April. I had a target to get back end of Q3 but I still need to finish my project. I've been kicking myself that I didn't get in on the low in june / July but started patting myself in the back in the last couple of days.



"It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual." Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning, 1946.
 
Posts: 18016 | Location: The Free State of Arizona - Ditat Deus | Registered: March 24, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Shall Not Be Infringed
Picture of nhracecraft
posted Hide Post
^^^The low in mid-June could be stratospheric compared to what's likely on the horizon... Wink


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Posts: 6198 | Location: New Hampshire | Registered: October 29, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I just had my yearly portfolio meeting and made 4.75% for the year and was happy about it.
 
Posts: 3158 | Registered: January 25, 2013Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Alienator
Picture of SIG4EVA
posted Hide Post
Its going to go down and then its going to go up. That's how the stock market works.


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Psalm 118:24 "This is the day which the Lord hath made; we will rejoice and be glad in it"
 
Posts: 6607 | Location: NC | Registered: March 16, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
I Deal In Lead
Picture of Flash-LB
posted Hide Post
If you've purchased good stocks, you don't have a thing to worry about.

If you purchased lousy ones, then perhaps you should worry.
 
Posts: 9636 | Location: Gilbert Arizona | Registered: March 21, 2013Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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