Not sure what you want to call it.

A correction, a plunge, a crash or something else. But the last month has not been good.

Vanguard say's they are predicting a 60+% likely hood of a recession in 2023.

Their 10 year prediction is not one of great earnings either.

Yeah, I know stay the coarse. Buy at a cheaper price, yada, yada, yada.

Using history as a predictor to the future of the markets is always a popular sentiment.
Problem is, that this is a time in our nations history unlike any we have had in some 220 some odd years.

It is a time that could really hurt a lot of folks.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: old rugged cross,

Nothing new here. We are in a recession and will get through it like all the others. Thank the Democrats for this one.

I’ve been 90% cash for the last 18 months. I’m still very afraid of what lies ahead.

A lot of what's driving the current downturn in the Ukraine war. The Russians now seem to be losing. If/when they give up, especially if Putin is driven out of power, there's going to be a huge rally.

Also depends on your age and a lot of other considerations.
If you're 30's and don't have a lot of net worth invested, who cares, time will take care of things.
If you're 55+ and have a lot of your net worth in the market to pay for retirement, you should look at things a bit differently, and should have started doing that months ago, or more.
You really need to be paying attention now, earlier would have been a lot better, but now otherwise.

quote:

Originally posted by ZSMICHAEL:
Nothing new here. We are in a recession and will get through it like all the others. Thank the Democrats for this one.

"Democrats"?

Look at The Fed, Uni-Party Congress, Uni-Party .Senate and the Executive branch over the last many decades.

And look at Venezuela as an indicator. We'll 'get through it'alright, but we won't like what is on the other end.

“Screwed”

I have a lot in cash/treasuries. Will buy back in at some point. Probably dollar cost average back in once we’ve ground down some more.

Historically, the market will come back. It all depends on how much time you have. A 40 year old will get different advice than a 70 year old. I've been watching my holdings and getting out when things look right. Yeah I know timing the market is fools folly. Still in these times, when I see and out, I jump.

quote:

And look at Venezuela as an indicator

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
LOL Are you kidding. We do not quite have a dictatorship or a socialist state that the progressive Democratic left would prefer. You looking for a free ride to Marthas Vineyard?

quote:

Originally posted by NavyGuy:
Historically, the market will come back. It all depends on how much time you have. A 40 year old will get different advice than a 70 year old.

It's the folks like me who are around 55 -- not on the precipice of retirement yet not a distant shout from it, either -- that the moves get a little trickier, the strategy more murky. I've played a more defensive game the last year or so, but I still think I'm more at risk than is probably wise, given the chaos and uncertainty of the couple of years and the outlook that just doesn't seem to promise much in the way of a rapid fix.

I'm in my 70s and still working full time. My company has a 401K which is hemorrhaging daily. I only have 10 years into it and may just roll the thing over to my IRA. My IRA is VERY conservative and has not been losing value to date. I'd like to retire, but with the economy the way it is, I'm leery! Guess I'll keep working till I'm 80!!!

^^^^^^^^^^^^
Watch out for taxes and the RMDs.

In the long run the market will recover, the problem is that not every will be here in the long run. I suggested before and will suggest again - look into uranium ETF's and stocks. They have the potential to still make great gains, even through this cesspool of an economy.

Once I get within a couple years of retirement I will have 90% in cash, I will invest the other 10%. Unlike most, I am not trying to keep my principle in retirement, I just have to make sure I do not spend it all before I die or get senile (once I am senile I will not care anyway).

quote:

Originally posted by NavyGuy:
Historically, the market will come back. It all depends on how much time you have. A 40 year old will get different advice than a 70 year old. I've been watching my holdings and getting out when things look right. Yeah I know timing the market is fools folly. Still in these times, when I see and out, I jump.

I agree. I've never been of the mind that you stay in a downward spiraling market. That whole thing that you just locked in your losses is BS. That's true only if you never get back in. You don't have to time the market perfectly.

Yeah I wanted to retire in my early 60s and a 10 year down market will screw my plans quite hard.

quote:

Originally posted by mcrimm:
I’ve been 90% cash for the last 18 months. I’m still very afraid of what lies ahead.

You're 90% cash, what are you afraid of? If I were you, I'd be hoping the crash would come sooner than later and let there be no ambiguity that it is a crash so you can come in with confidence.

For unrelated reasons, I haven't finished a project I've been working on to get back to market. I started to go to cash middle of January and fully in cash end of April. I had a target to get back end of Q3 but I still need to finish my project. I've been kicking myself that I didn't get in on the low in june / July but started patting myself in the back in the last couple of days.

^^^The low in mid-June could be stratospheric compared to what's likely on the horizon...

I just had my yearly portfolio meeting and made 4.75% for the year and was happy about it.

Its going to go down and then its going to go up. That's how the stock market works.

If you've purchased good stocks, you don't have a thing to worry about.

If you purchased lousy ones, then perhaps you should worry.