quote:

Originally posted by sjames:

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:
I bet the next US Drone flights in the area won't be 'alone'...

A 4-ship of F-22s and some EA-18G jamming support, among other things...

Now that's a party!

I would venture to say that the Iranians in the Gulf will be seeing a more 'active' presence from US forces.

This 'pause' will allow a more comprehensive strategy, to combine military response (which we know we'll win at) with political message (to Iran, the world, and the Leftist fucks that are cheering for Trump to fail 24/7/365).

I think if they shoot down another drone, there will be a response - but one that would minimize casualties - blowing up some infrastructure, unoccupied military assets, etc.

quote:

The rules as played since the late 1970's changed this week. Things may still happen, but the course of events will proceed unpredictably.

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Explain that please. I frankly do not see anything that would suggest that. Sounds like something from a book of military quotes. Chaos theory???

I see you now added asymmetical warfare. Still does not make sense to me.

quote:

Originally posted by deepocean:
The quotes are mine.

What does a Country do when it cannot win an all out war? Asymmetrical warfare. How does one start such warfare? By baiting a trap. What does one do if the trap which has worked for 40-odd years stops working?

Leaders who are unpredictable even to people in their own Country are difficult to read. Unpredictability may cause enemies to hesitate before trying something because the end result is unknowable. This turns asymmetrical warfare on its head.

Not playing the game according to the previously established pattern changes everything.

My favorite kind of fight...

History does not support your position. I believe considerable restraint took place when the United States stopped Israel from literally wasting Iraq after missiles rained down on their country.
There are numerous examples throughout history of this sort of thing going back to the Middle Ages.

I think this sort of philosophical argument is best reserved for folks like General Mattis,ie people who know what they are talking about.

Do not confuse good judgment on the part of the President with some kind of historical precedent.

Helen Keller did it and so can you, Gustofer!

Some people need a 'lil coaxing or subterfuge now and again.

What was the goal of sanctions anyway?

Was it to reduce Iran’s financial resources and stability - the things that allow it to build nuclear weapons and to export terrorism?

The Trump administration has cinched in an economic stranglehold.

It’s not uncommon to have the subject flail around as a choke sets in.

Does one best stay the course to let the effects set in or change position to guard against minor strikes?

Well, it’s just a thought experiment but, maybe, the President has his eye on the underlying goal.

Iran’s inflation has gone to 40% and the Iranian people are unstable in support of the regime as their lives deteriorate.

At various points we are likely to see Iranian acts of desperation.

“Give up the position” or “ride it hard” may be, at least, a partial explanation for recent presidential actions.

The anaconda will suffer many bites as it cinches down with the opponent's every breath.

We announced new sanctions June 7th and we've seen Iranian outbursts since then.

quote:

I have not seen this level of thinking before.

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OK I believe YOU have not seen this level of thinking before. You are young. Chess is an old game, so is military strategy and political statesmanship. The Art of War is not a new publication. There are folks on this Forum who are graduates of various military colleges. Greeks and Romans did this sort of thing, without drones or sophisticated weaponry.

quote:

Originally posted by ZSMICHAEL:

quote:

I have not seen this level of thinking before.

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OK I believe YOU have not seen this level of thinking before. You are young. Chess is an old game, so is military strategy and political statesmanship.

Wait, he is too young, but you just referenced the Middle Ages? Did you find the Grail Knight and choose wisely or something?

quote:

Wait, he is too young, but you just referenced the Middle Ages? Did you find the Grail Knight and choose wisely or something?

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Yeah. I like Monty Python too! I was afraid to mention how we handled the Cuban Missile Crisis,
or the Berlin Wall because he might not have heard of them. Christopher on the Sopranos thought the Cuban Missile Crisis was just a made for TV movie.

quote:

Originally posted by Tubetone:
What was the goal of sanctions anyway?

Was it to reduce Iran’s financial resources and stability - the things that allow it to build nuclear weapons and to export terrorism?

The Trump administration has cinched in an economic stranglehold.

It’s not uncommon to have the subject flail around as a choke sets in.

Does one best stay the course to let the effects set in or change position to guard against minor strikes?

Well, it’s just a thought experiment but, maybe, the President has his eye on the underlying goal.

Iran’s inflation has gone to 40% and the Iranian people are unstable in support of the regime as their lives deteriorate. At various points we are likely to see Iranian acts of desperation.

“Give up the position” or “ride it hard” may be, at least, a partial explanation for recent presidential actions.

The anaconda will suffer many bites as it cinches down with the opponent's every breath.

We announced new sanctions June 7th and we've seen Iranian outbursts since then.

We don't need to fire a shot, eventually anyone who had money or likes to eat will revolt. A $30,000 car cost $1b Rials. A candy bar is $5,000 Rial.

Inflation ruins a country. No one can ever accumulate wealth. If you had a million in the bank and owned a house and car outright, you could retire today, wouldn't be the best retirement, but you wouldn't be eating cat food. Imagine now we had one year of 40% inflation and your $1m is now worth $600k (approximation). You can't be retired any more, you are now a Walmart greeter, or worse you have to try and reenter the professional workforce at 67 years old. It would wreck our entire way of life and any thoughts of wealth accumulation. I don't think the US population would be happy after year one. They are on year two.

As for the asymmetrical warfare nonsense. This is not warfare, and to be asymmetrical warfare we'd need some kind of proximity to them. They are not sneeking guerrillas accross the Atlantic for overnight raids. The best they can do is attack our assets in the ME. Which will result in 5x as many deaths as they inflict on us and 10x as many assets.

We don't need a show of force, everyone on the planet knows we are the big swigging dicks at this party. There's an ocean between US and we are the most powerful country to ever exist.

My manhood is (and the USs) is still intact, the plane is inconsequential, and we look better to the world for not killing 150 people when we lost zero lives.

Maximum pressure will work and we have all the time in the world to let it. Guess what, if I'm wrong we can still bomb the shit out of them. Win/win

A hand here, who figured out early on, thankfully, folks in the room have things to teach you if one listens. I retired early at the end of '13 as I could no longer reconcile my involvement, with the presidents objectives. My son is now sitting in the same compound I left, he is within Iran's reach.

So yes I'm thankful for Mr Trumps restraint. I would ask folks to consider the possibility that Kerry, Hillary, Obama, an others have been traveling overseas since the election, not only to cover their asses, but to try and insure Trump does not have a second term. This would include the republican corporation.

As with most on this board all we can do is watch the show for now. I'm rather fine with monetary warfare and wish it well.

By showing restraint Trump is showing true leadership. Hopefully Iranian leadership sees this and knows that someone on their side fracked up. If not, Iran could have easily lost a bunch of military assets pushing their military ranking a few notches down. If they are stupid enough to keep poking the Lion, then eventually they will suffer the consequences. All this is just my opinion. God Bless the USA !!!

quote:

Originally posted by springnr:
So yes I'm thankful for Mr Trumps restraint. I would ask folks to consider the possibility that Kerry, Hillary, Obama, an others have been traveling overseas since the election, not only to cover their asses, but to try and insure Trump does not have a second term. This would include the republican corporation.

As with most on this board all we can do is watch the show for now. I'm rather fine with monetary warfare and wish it well.

Thank you, and your son, for your service, springnr.
I agree with your assessment on restraint + sanctions.

quote:

Originally posted by Tubetone:

Iran’s inflation has gone to 40% and the Iranian people are unstable in support of the regime as their lives deteriorate.

At various points we are likely to see Iranian acts of desperation.

President Trump's 'message' to Iran was aimed at the military/government, AND the people. There has been a large group (mostly youth, from what I've read) in Iran who are disgusted with the radical muslim rules they have to live under. They want to smoke and wear jeans in public; not suffer under sharia law. Iran knows this, and often stirs up crap with other nations to shift attention away from domestic issues to external forces. So, Iran has an internal crisis with people agitating for more freedom. They then stir some crap up (like capturing a boatload of British sailors years ago). The allies react, and the Iranian govt acts as though 'their nation is under attack by foreigners.' Attention is focuses outward, and the govt no longer has to deal with the internal threat for a while.

By showing this level of restraint, Trump is sending everybody a message. To the military; we could have wrecked your crap any time we chose to. To the govt; we know what you are doing and you just might be next. To the people; we are not your enemy, your govt is.

This WAS an act of war. They shot down a US military aircraft in international airspace. It makes little difference, in principle, if it was manned or not. This is a very big deal. The oceans and skies are to be free for transit to whomever wishes to use them. We schwacked Libya pretty hard for trying to claim the Gulf of Sidra as their 'home waters' in the 1980s. As much as I would have liked to see smoking craters where their SAM batteries were, this was the best option. And, I think the '150 deaths' was purposefully high. Again, it shows what we are capable of - we could have wiped out 3 sites and killed 150 of your people without even breaking a sweat. But, we chose not to.

The greatest display of strength is restraint. Anybody can lash out in anger. True strength is often best displayed by restraint. I would also speculate that this '10 minutes from execution' bit is also a bit of political posturing. I don't think Trump changed his mind (or 'blinked') at the last minute - I think he planned this all along. And I am good with that.


I love how this puts all the dems/msm in a bind, too. They can't criticize Trump for NOT bombing Iran. But, they cannot compliment him for showing restraint, either. And, now everybody knows that if this happens again, we WILL smoke them. And we will look like we are the strong one showing restraint, as we gave them every chance to make a course correction.

People have been trying to tell Trump what to do ever since he announced his candidacy (many on this forum). Fortunately for America, he has ignored most of the bad advice and has wisely chosen his course based on his own good judgment.

The Democrats wanted President Trump to destroy those sites so that they could yell "THIS STUPID, BUMBLING WAR MONGER IS GOING TO SET THE WORLD ON FIRE!!"

The Iranians provocative action of shooting down a drone was calculated to get President Trump to launch the attack because right now, a war doesn't look like such a bad proposition to them, what with economic sanctions strangling their country, and what with a very dissatisfied populace. As strange as it may sound to the short-sighted, the Iranian regime views a war as a good thing, since the cessation of the flow of their oil (only temporary, by necessity for all involved, of course) would cause China and other major powers to howl. Even a brief blockage of the Straits of Hormuz would be a real problem, and President Trump would get the blame. They're attempting to damage the President's reelection. A war is the last thing the United States needs right now.

Gustofer says that President Trump's show of restraint makes us "look like pussies". No, the President's restraint is an indication of a matured president who takes into consideration more than just what is showing on the surface of this mess.

The Democrats, not getting what they wanted in this situation, fell back to Plan B, which is that President Trump is a weak and indecisive leader. Even on Fox News, Chris Wallace was saying "inaction has consequences", and on MSNBC, Joe Scarborough was actually chiding President Trump for consulting with members of the Security Council (Republican and Democrats alike), and saying that the United States looks weak. So, whatever action the man takes or doesn't take, it's automatically the wrong thing.

Let me tell you- anyone who thinks Donald Trump to be a weak and indecisive leader is blind. Exhibiting restraint when you can squash your opponent like a bug is not an indication of weakness. You think that refraining from striking a blow to these psychopaths means that President Trump is incapable of pulling the trigger on them if we're provoked further? That's utterly ridiculous.

So, let's set a goal for you, Gustofer. Let's get you seeing that big 'E' on the eye chart. One step at a time. One step at a time.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:

So, let's set a goal for you, Gustofer. Let's get you seeing that big 'E' on the eye chart. One step at a time. One step ta a time.

Cute pictures fellas. Here's one for you. A man who happened to agree with my assessment and take the appropriate action.



Funny thing is, I'd be willing to bet my next month's salary that had Trump chosen to attack those sites instead, you'd have been behind that decision 150% as well. Good to see the man still walks on water.

quote:

Originally posted by Gustofer:
Cute pictures fellas. Here's one for you. A man who happened to agree with my assessment and take the appropriate action.

Gus, the 1980s called, they want your assessment of current politics back.

Oh, yeah, Gustofer. Invoking Ronald Reagan is such a great argument for you. Just forget about all the present circumstances and post a pic of Ronnie. Well, shit, I'm convinced. Brilliant.

Listen, when you've managed to convince yourself that Donald Trump is a "pussy", you're so far down the rabbit hole, you're not ever coming back.

I suppose that now, you'll post a pic of Teddy Roosevelt. Maybe Andrew Jackson.