I (dimly) recall a thread about self-driving cars maybe five years ago. Very few people thought that it would be realistic in our lifetimes. Now just a few years later it has progressed far faster than the vast majority of us anticipated.
I am seriously considering a Tesla as our next car. At our age, I'm making more mistakes than I used to. If I were a pilot I would turn in my license.
Note that we don't live in an urban area any longer, but do have to drive on urban freeways frequently.
Realistically I'm pretty sure that Tesla's FSD would be safer than me for the vast majority of driving.
I took an Uber recently in a Model Y. Asked the driver how his Tesla did in the fog that is so prevalent in California's Central Valley. He said FSD told him to drive himself in dense fog.
Remember Tesla doesn't have LIDAR, only cameras.

That Camera vs Lidar debate is hotly contested in automotive marketing, and in a lot of other applications where one is better than the other, together would probably be best.

Mercedes, Polestar, Lucid, Audi et all use lidar, Waymo's do and most Chinese EV's with self driving use LIDAR. Tesla seems committed to camera.

Tesla seems to have the most advanced software interface and of course been doing it a long time. Having driven with FSD it's pretty impressive.

Teslas new plan eliminates the $8K up front FSD fee for a $99 a month fee, which is good, especially if you don't need it every time you drive. Since people trade up every few years, it's a better deal than the one time up front fee.

Heres a good video discussing LIDAR vs Camera

AIs are very, very good at things they have been trained on. Think idiot savants. Except a human savant won’t lie to you on something that is outside their area of expertise. An AI, when it encounters what we used to call “exceptions”, things it had not been trained on, will give you the closest case it has been trained on, which will almost always be wrong. This is why there are human pilots on planes, even though the autopilots can takeoff, fly and land all by themselves.

The self driving cars are deployed in places that have nice weather, as far as I can see, and still have problems with bad weather when they do encounter it.

I have a friend who can’t wait for self driving cars, so he can drive his analog car through traffic, since the self driving cars will and do maintain speed limits, spacing, etc., that he won’t have to.

Only a few letters make the difference between supplementing and supplanting human driving. I can see a niche use for the former, but none for the latter.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: egregore,

quote:

Originally posted by egregore:
Only a few letters make the difference between supplementing and supplanting human driving. I can see a niche use for the former, but none for the latter.

You can’t see a need for autonomous vehicles for people who can no longer safely operate a car due to medical conditions or age?
If they ever get autonomous vehicle technology to be able to supplant the human driver the impact to quality of life will be hugh.

Yeah I talk with my almost 93 year old brother about this. He missed the opportunity to have a "self-driving car"; and it looks like I will have the chance.
Interestingly, probably the biggest obstacle to buying a Tesla with FSD is my wife, who is tech-phobic and wants a Honda Odyssey to replace her old one.
She has enough trouble with her iPhone; I can imagine her freaking out with a Tesla's controls.

quote:

Originally posted by egregore:
Only a few letters make the difference between supplementing and supplanting human driving. I can see a niche use for the former, but none for the latter.

I suspect supplanting will dominate in the near future.

This thread has me thinking seriously about buying a Tesla.

quote:

Originally posted by SpinZone:

You can’t see a need for autonomous vehicles for people who can no longer safely operate a car due to medical conditions or age?
If they ever get autonomous vehicle technology to be able to supplant the human driver the impact to quality of life will be hugh.

If medical conditions or age prevent driving, there is Uber and Lyft. If they are that immobile, highly unlikely they’ll be on the roads much. Uber rides would be cheaper in a given month, than a car payment, insurance, gas (or kWh), and maintenance. Not to mention in populated areas, delivered groceries are already a thing. So there is existing services for this space already.

Supplementing may not help those who can’t/shouldn’t be driving.

Supplanting would be universally useful but I have not much faith in the competency of sw developers. Nor the corruption that we’re starting to see in LLM.

quote:

there is Uber and Lyft

Nonsense! We need to replace all human services with computers.

There is no way in hell I'm trusting a robot/computer with my life in a car:

quote:

Originally posted by Prefontaine:

quote:

Originally posted by SpinZone:

You can’t see a need for autonomous vehicles for people who can no longer safely operate a car due to medical conditions or age?
If they ever get autonomous vehicle technology to be able to supplant the human driver the impact to quality of life will be hugh.

If medical conditions or age prevent driving, there is Uber and Lyft. If they are that immobile, highly unlikely they’ll be on the roads much. Uber rides would be cheaper in a given month, than a car payment, insurance, gas (or kWh), and maintenance. Not to mention in populated areas, delivered groceries are already a thing. So there is existing services for this space already.

Your premise that a medical condition or age related loss of the ability to drive relates to being "that immobile" is fundamentally flawed. Just because someone loses reactions, vision, balance, or other things that are needed to drive, doesn’t mean they are bed ridden. In fact, I would make the argument that autonomous cars would help people from getting worse by keeping them engaged in the world.

Advocating for the weak and frail to rely on strangers is not the best idea. An admittedly small number of drivers have been in the news due to committing crimes against their passengers, but the number doesn’t matter if its you.. My wife is not comfortable user uber alone and I always carry when I take one and I don’t come across as weak or frail.

If I take an uber 13 miles to my micro brewery and back it adds $60.00 plus tip to the cost of my lunch. Depending on uber/lfyt can surpass a car payment a lot faster then you realize.

And you discount the most important part. How much is the freedom to go where you want, when you want, without having to rely on someone else worth? Put your car keys away and rely on a 3rd party for all of your transportation needs for a month or 2. We often talk about freedom here, lose your ability to drive and you will get it.

At 61 yrs old, I doubt I will be driving this time next year. I already gave up riding my beloved motorcycle. Once I stop driving I will lose out on so many things that I can still do. Good luck finding an uber driver to take my kayak to the ramp.

Personally, i would rather drive. I'm not even interested in the supervised self driving systems. But given the choices, when they get the tech to the point where they are making cars with no steering wheel, I'm in.

quote:

You can’t see a need for autonomous vehicles for people who can no longer safely operate a car due to medical conditions or age?

That's a possible "niche" use, is it not?

quote:

Originally posted by egregore:

quote:

You can’t see a need for autonomous vehicles for people who can no longer safely operate a car due to medical conditions or age?

That's a possible "niche" use, is it not?

Your post said you saw no reason for supplanting human drivers.
My point was that there were reasons for autonomous vehicles supplanting human drivers. It may turn out to be a niche use, but it’s a valid one.

quote:

Originally posted by SpinZone:
Your premise that a medical condition or age related loss of the ability to drive relates to being "that immobile" is fundamentally flawed.

That’s how you see it, and we don’t agree, and that is fine. I can tell you if age, or a medical disability (permanent) prevents me from piloting my own vehicles, I have no problem with getting driven around. I’ve had to do that very thing post OP, and during recovery with Uber. Ortho visits, PT appointments, picking up prescriptions, getting my groceries. Luckily a neighbor volunteered to take me to surgery and picked me up afterwards. But post OP I was on my own. It wasn’t bad at all except for being one handed for almost 6 months. Oh and grabbing a bowl from the cupboard, slightly missing it, and having it land on the edge of the glass cooktop and shattering it, requiring me to go to Best Buy, in an Uber, and buy a new one and have it installed. I was pissed I made that mistake. But I didn’t bitch about Uber. It was actually kind of nice, as people where I live in a major metro, drive like damn heathens. Most of them are on the damn phone and distracted. Driving anywhere, well I can relax more at a track day in a car or on one of my motorcycles than driving around here. Driving in a major metro isn’t fun to me. It wouldn’t be fun in a F80. And I was in the music business when I was younger. Major cities like NYC, when I had to play there, I never rented a car. I took the subway or used a cab. No big deal.

I’ve studied the car and motorcycle market for almost 40 years. I can tell you this, fully autonomous vehicles will not be cheap. $60k+. The average new car price in the US (truck, CUV, whatever) has gone above $50k now, which is absolutely ridiculous. I pray to God I’ll make it to retirement and I know damn well I’m not spending that kind of money on a vehicle, any vehicle, in retirement. Way less expensive to pay for rides if I’m in this hypothetical situation. I know the manus very well and you can bet your ass, when AI vehicles are here, they’ll market it as a luxury thing and it being your chauffeur. And it will have a price to match. Oh and go read some automotive industry articles. I can tell you the manus want to lease vehicles via subscription services. IE, you lease X or Y vehicle. You pay your monthly subscription fee for Hal9000 and get to use it anytime you want. When you aren’t using it, the manu wants to use it as their own Uber/Lyft vehicle and have it making $. That’s where they want to take autonomous driving, subscription services. For me, my answer is fuck that. I’ll just pay a human pilot if need be.

I fight for old age, every day and every week. I’m in my 50’s, and I work out a lot and eat like a nutritionist. Gave up alcohol, willingly, and last month I didn’t eat outside my kitchen once. I don’t even care about dining out anymore. For me only, a waste of my money. I may get a medical at some point but until then I’m in the gym every week lifting. I do cardio at home on a bike. I will fight that old man, inside, until I’m in a wheel chair or in the ground. I get blood work done several times a year too. I made the decision that time is more valuable than money. Time on this rock = working out, eating correctly, and being as fit as I can push myself to be. And piloting my 4 wheelers, 2 wheelers, and watercraft is at the top of my totem pole below God. I’ll fight AI until the end or I have absolutely no choice.

So if you’re all for it, get your wallet ready. You’re going to need it.

quote:

Originally posted by sjtill:
Yeah I talk with my almost 93 year old brother about this. He missed the opportunity to have a "self-driving car"; and it looks like I will have the chance.
Interestingly, probably the biggest obstacle to buying a Tesla with FSD is my wife, who is tech-phobic and wants a Honda Odyssey to replace her old one.
She has enough trouble with her iPhone; I can imagine her freaking out with a Tesla's controls.

You might want to look at the Chevrolet Equinox EV, right now there are some unbelievable discounts on the car, if you get it with SuperCruise it has the ability to self drive, but it's not necessary. Unlike the one pedal only drive system in the Tesla, you can elect to not engage that and drive it like a normal car. My wife likes it as other than plugging it in you have no clue it's electric, it drives just like any other vehicle.

I like the one pedal and HUD on the windshield, and it's just one button to change from Self Drive to Standard Auto controls. She'd never know it was an EV from the driving controls and dash layout.

If you want to use the tech you can for going on trips, or any destination. Tesla is similar in that even though FSD is on the vehicle you don't have to use it, however the drive experience is different and it has that single dash in the middle.

There is a $10K manufacturer discount, if you are a Costco Executive, $1500 more, have a competitive model in the house, $1000 more, I've seen up to $17K discounts on some listed online.

Link EQEV

Why would anyone want to drive a normal car, in a normal environment ?

It’s a misery and a waste of time.

Deal with the “demographic collapse” on a regular basis at work.

All “toil” needs to go, as quickly as possible - including 90% or so of government jobs, and most “education.”

We simply do not have man hours to waste.

quote:

Originally posted by sjtill:
Yeah I talk with my almost 93 year old brother about this. He missed the opportunity to have a "self-driving car"; and it looks like I will have the chance.
Interestingly, probably the biggest obstacle to buying a Tesla with FSD is my wife, who is tech-phobic and wants a Honda Odyssey to replace her old one.
She has enough trouble with her iPhone; I can imagine her freaking out with a Tesla's controls.

Actually just the opposite. Tesla software and controls allow the car to be set up for a person's preference and saved. When the car senses a person's phone and unlocks it also sets all the preferences. I am taking about literally dozens of preferences, everything from physical items like seats and climate to how aggressive the car accelerates and drives in traffic. I kid you not everything about the car and how it behaves is customized and remembered for unlimited number of drivers.

As for operating the car as I have posted before, you get in the car, tap a location on the screen which often has been preselected by the car based on the day and time you get in (for example every XXX day of the week at around a certain time it knows that I go to shoot a pistol match across town so it has already brought that up as a destination selection). If you have an appointment on your calendar and have your phone set up to sync calendar it will know that is where you are heading and will pre select that destination in navigation.

When you arrive you touch the car door button to open the door and the car puts itself into park and shuts down, you get out walk away and the car locks itself and sets the security system which by the way all the cameras can be monitored on your phone remotely. While you are gone the car maintains whatever temp you have set if you have left groceries or a dog in the car.

When you come back repeat the process, get in touch a location on the screen and sit back.

My point to the post I am responding to is that all the tech is remembered and behind the scenes. Just like a computer you can tinker as much as you like or you can set it and forget it for less tech inclined. Another example comes to mind I can select ride characteristics for my model S including shocks and ride height and as part of this if I set low ride height for performance and there is a bump or low spot in the road that I repeatedly travel the car will ask me if I want it to remember that spot and it automatically raise the suspension when approaching that spot in the future.

People that have not owned a Tesla with FSD cannot grasp (it is such a paradigm shift) or refuse to believe the insane capabilities of this car. It is often like explaining the capabilities of an iPhone to someone who has only owned a flip phone.

I would suggest that those who have never used Tesla’s FSD to use it first before you write it off. There are legit uses for it and I have mentioned them already.

You can write off technology or use what can make your life easier. I think some people here would complain about magnesium sticks and would prefer to use wooden sticks and a board to light fires……..

quote:

Originally posted by mrvmax:
I would suggest that those who have never used Tesla’s FSD to use it first before you write it off. There are legit uses for it and I have mentioned them already.

You can write off technology or use what can make your life easier. I think some people here would complain about magnesium sticks and would prefer to use wooden sticks and a board to light fires……..

I have a good friend who's mother in law is getting older and was starting to have minor accidents driving, backing into walls trash cans, close calls in traffic. They decided she needed a new car with better technology like better collision avoidance better backup sensors better cameras etc etc. I strongly encouraged them to get her a Tesla with FSD for the safety aspect alone. The MIL has Trump/Elon derangement syndrome so she absolutely refused to even take a test drive in a Nazi car. So they bought her a new Lexus with all the bells and whistles.

One week later she was in a major accident that totaled the Lexus and absolutely mangled her legs. She is going through months and months of reconstruction surgery skin grafts pins etc. At her age she will probably never fully recover.

From what I have been told of the accident, I have a strong belief that had she been driving in a Tesla this accident would not have happened or would have been much less severe (she did not react to the incident in time and hit other car at full speed). Obviously I have no way of knowing for sure or proving that but from the details I have heard I believe the Tesla would have avoided the collision or at least lessened it substantially. What price do you put on that?