quote:

Originally posted by 1s1k:
Everyone who hates on electric cars always points out the extreme examples every time.

If everybody is pointing them out, maybe the examples aren't so extreme? I don't see people posting why an electric vehicle won't work for them as hating. I guess I'll be an extremist hater then as well. I have three vehicles, one of which could be replaced by an electric vehicle. I bought a brand new Focus ST with the leather Recaro seats for $27k out the door. I use it to ferry my 3 kids around. From a practical standpoint, I could have spent a minimum of $10k more for an electric car and the equipment to charge it and wound up with a perfectly pedestrian vehicle.

There are. currently no electric vehicles that could effectively replace my other two vehicles and renting is not an option.

Jay’s car. He’s right!
Maybe some of you can chill looking at it too.

Wonder how much electricity it would take to truck a 32,000 lb. cargo across the country.Thousands of trucks are doing that every week in this country.

Good read. Also wrong on so many levels. To add to what the guy said about everywhere not being California, everyone isn’t rich either. Most people can’t afford and shouldn’t have two separate cars for work, commute and then everything else. Your car has to do it all for most people. A car that is just for commuting and then a weekend car makes ZERO sense. It costs more and it’s worse for the environment. It’s literally a money loser in every way.

As for electric cars having no repairs. He said that. What a load of shit. Ever try to track down an electrical problem in your car. Your car that isn’t electric? You still have car problems with electric cars. The modern ICE is pretty darn reliable. I will give the edge to electrics bit with the caveat that the6 will have issues that confound you.

We keep stepping past the infrastructure like it’s an easily solved problem. It’s not. Energy infrastructure from power plants to actual charging stations will require a huge influx of money, effort, and time.

You still haven’t solved the quick charge issue. It is an issue even if you want to ignore it or pretend like the solution is right around the corner.

Once again, you need a Volt or hybrid system to make this really work. All electric isn’t practical. It just isn’t. And yes, Tesla owners are like a cult. Talk to them, try to get them to even admit yo any issues. It’s like walking through downtown Jonestown right before koolaid hour.

Reality needs to be injected into these discussions.

I have a 2018 Nissan Versa that we use for local driving. It cost me $16,500, gets 38 mpg,and has a 12 gallon tank. It's available for longer road trips if I choose.

A Nissan Leaf would cost about $40,000, less whatever tax incentive is being pushed, and be pretty much restricted to local driving.

I can buy a lot of gas for $24,000.

This shouldn’t be a California bashing thread. You’d be surprised how many Californians think and vote just like....you. Our idiot governor asked CARB to create regs that would essentially outlaw ICE by 2035. Yes, I hate the idea. Yes, I have an old 59 Chevy and my daily driver is a Civic....with a stick. My utility is a local muni and doesn’t suffer from the idiocy of PG&E. So, my power is always on.

Anyway, I think the article is sound but doesn’t address all the challenges of increased EV use.

And Balze, I read recently where the director of the 911 program swears that as long as he’s in charge, the 911 will have ICE.

quote:

Originally posted by Paten:
Until I can charge a vehicle at home while living in an apartment complex with no assigned parking, I won't be buying an electric vehicle.

This is the thing none of the EV fans talk about - you need a garage and a 240 volt service charger in your garage to make EV's practical on a daily bases for commuting and local driving.

Few other things:

My job is engine manufacturing, and has been for a long time. Right now, I could call some key people at the major powertrain assembly system integrators around the world (US, Germany, China, South Korea) and ask what kinds of lines they are supplying now. But I already I know the answer is battery lines. I know the guys that make machining lines for IC engine blocks and heads are down on business because EV's don't need them.

Yes there are huge reasons for the push, largely government incentives and mandates. Some of this is to eliminate emissions in polluted cities, but also because it "sounds good on paper". That said, everyone is getting into the business, and soon Tesla will have huge competition. Tesla's Model 3 launch was a fiasco, and their defect rates and worker injury rates are sky high compared to the rest of the industry. Yes, they are worse than China, by a long shot. That is because they are a bunch of amateurs when it comes to manufacturing. The Model S is built with aerospace materials and processes, which make it cost what it does, but are more or less suitable to the production volume. The Model S is designed and built more like a traditional car, which is necessary to bring the cost down to something more people can afford. And the smartest guys in the room found out they aren't nearly as smart as those old rust belt guys that have been doing it for more than 100 years. They made enormous blunders on basic manufacturing project implementation disciplines. When the majors really get going, Tesla will be completely non-competitive, and will best function as a technology licenser and provider of infrastructure by opening and expanding their supercharger network.

But none of this recognizes the facts stated earlier in this thread. There are a lot of materials needed for vehicle sized batteries that are in short supply and require pretty nasty processes to extract and refine them. I have not seen any studies showing that total life cycle energy costs for EV's are lower than IC's, when you account for the energy to produce the materials, build the parts, assemble the car, power it over its useful life, then dispose of it. I have seen no studies showing that the total environmental effects over the entire life cycle are better for EV's vs. IC's. Then there's the huge increase in power generation capacity we will need, amid the push against fossil fueled power plants and the lack of any new nuclear plants.

What we have here is the tech industry using government influence and edict to award them business and deny it to traditional vehicle manufacturers. No wonder they did everything they possibly could to make sure Biden got elected. But at least Elon is learning and getting the hell out of CA now that he is a manufacturer and not a tech startup.

To answer some questions:

Current range for a Class 8 EV Tractor and Semi-Trailer at 80,000 lbs is about 30 MILES. Yes, that's good only for things like shipping port to local warehouse and back, with charging between runs. But California has effectively banned diesel engines via emissions regulations in some on-highway engine classes as of 2024, and the industry is walking away - meaning there will be no new diesels sold in CA in those classes. DI Turbo gasoline engines will replace smaller diesels in the 10L and lower on-highway classes. And some EV's for things like buses and other suitable applications.

Based on some things I've seen recently, I think hydrogen will be more viable in the long term, mostly due to range and ability to refuel. Hydrogen production is expanding dramatically. In Europe they will use off peak power from nuclear plants that cannot be throttled back easily to run the electrolyzers. But that still means a lot more power generation and associated infrastructure. And we don't have off peak nuclear, so our best bet is natural gas. But then, why not just power the cars directly with natural gas and avoid all the middle steps? Oh, because it's not about reducing actual pollution, it's about controlling energy usage by limiting CO2 emissions, not actual pollution.

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:

quote:

Originally posted by 1s1k:
Everyone who hates on electric cars always points out the extreme examples every time.

If everybody is pointing them out, maybe the examples aren't so extreme? I don't see people posting why an electric vehicle won't work for them as hating. I guess I'll be an extremist hater then as well. I have three vehicles, one of which could be replaced by an electric vehicle. I bought a brand new Focus ST with the leather Recaro seats for $27k out the door. I use it to ferry my 3 kids around. From a practical standpoint, I could have spent a minimum of $10k more for an electric car and the equipment to charge it and wound up with a perfectly pedestrian vehicle.

There are. currently no electric vehicles that could effectively replace my other two vehicles and renting is not an option.

We are talking near future not right this moment. Good or bad the vast majority of engineering dollars for the industry are getting poured into EV.

For the extreme drivers who are alway driving 500 miles at a time while pulling 10,000lbs of course it will be much farther down the road. Even for them battery technology constantly gets better and charging times are dropping dramatically.

As far as apartment complexes that’s not even a knee high hurdle that’s more like an ankle high hurdle. As EV proliferates the landscape these apartment could complexes will be putting in charging to attract more clients. It will be someone people look to as a plus for moving there. Anything built new will also have the capability. With just about every manufacturer going big into EV I wish they could all get together and come up with a common plug design that becomes a standard.

To replace your ST (very cool car) in 10 or 15 years the choices will be way better in the EV segment than the ICE segment because of so much money going towards that architecture.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: 1s1k,

This is the best use of old design and electric tech I've ever seen...

Open this to see the video. Can't figure out how to embed

And I would LOVE to have one, except for 2 things...
The price: I think a half a million pounds was the goal number
and
Jaguar halts plan for electric E-type Zero
Jaguar pulled the plug over a year ago. I don't think they've said why.

So other than being way expensive and unavailable, and horrible for the planet for what all the mining will do, I'm all in

So, a few things.

A) I was one of those Tesla hating people, until I drove one. At which point, I bought one. I like speed, and it’s just surreal.

B) It’s had some build quality issues, but it’s been better than my MBs or BMWs.

C) Tesla is improving, rapidly, as a company. They now make more cars than BMW. Some of their production ideas are interesting, some are bizarre.

D) A Tesla charger, for home use, uses the same amount of power as an oven. I’m not sure that the network is as overloaded as it seems. Especially if the electric companies set up demand based rates for car chargers. (2 way charging actually makes a great deal of sense for load balancing)

It might not make sense, though, without demand pricing, and some kind of integrated “smart” charging.

BMW makes more cars in a month than Tesla managed to push out all last quarter. I do agree they are amazing fun to drive. I’ve driven my friends model x I think it’s the P80? The acceleration on electric cars is nuts.

California already imports more energy than any other state. This will only get worse base on current politics of shutting plants down vs. building new.

quote:

Originally posted by Aglifter:
So, a few things.

A) I was one of those Tesla hating people, until I drove one. At which point, I bought one. I like speed, and it’s just surreal.

B) It’s had some build quality issues, but it’s been better than my MBs or BMWs.

C) Tesla is improving, rapidly, as a company. They now make more cars than BMW. Some of their production ideas are interesting, some are bizarre.

D) A Tesla charger, for home use, uses the same amount of power as an oven. I’m not sure that the network is as overloaded as it seems. Especially if the electric companies set up demand based rates for car chargers. (2 way charging actually makes a great deal of sense for load balancing)

It might not make sense, though, without demand pricing, and some kind of integrated “smart” charging.

Don't forget that without the fuel taxes, the government will find a way to tax your mileage or power usage for that EV.

1s1k,

No amount of government mandates made electric cars viable. The 1990's mandate in CA failed because the technology wasn't there, and it wasn't for a lack of trying. I knew a program manager in Ford's EV program and one of the biggest hurdles was heating and cooling. Running an AC compressor off of battery power or a resistance based heater killed range. The only workable solution for heating in cold climates was kerosene. Yes, I am not making that up.

Tesla was smart enough to use the early adopter model from the tech industry. Instead of making an econobox to sell cheap, they made a super sedan that took advantage of the unique characteristics of electric motors, and competed with the high end on performance. Early adopters with money bought them, then as production increased, prices came down. This is how markets are supposed to work, not by government mandates! This is how early plasma TV's that cost $20K in the 90's resulted in the current supply of big cheap flat panels using LCD's.

Tesla will survive on price/quality/performance like any other car. The tax credit certainly helped, but it was more of a bonus. You don't spend nearly 100K on a super Tesla to get a few grand tax benefit.

Battery technology has a limit, which is the available chemical energy in the reaction. Efficiency may go up, yes, to a limit, then you just need bigger batteries. There are not enough known supplies of rare earth metals in the world to make enough batteries to covert to EV's on any large scale. No one has provided an answer to this problem, unless a new battery technology is developed that does not need them.

So instead of looking for more creative ways to get oil and natural gas out of the earth, we will be looking for more creative ways to mine and extract rare earth metals. How does that help the environment, or allow us to be fully "renewable"? Just moves the problem to something else. And we still need the natural gas to generate the electrical power needed to charge the batteries, because nuclear is not politically possible, and wind/solar cannot do the job.

The most efficient use of our energy supply is powering IC engines with natural gas, not burning natural gas to create electricity, to transmit to homes, to charge batteries, or to create hydrogen to fill fuel cells and make electricity again. It's cheap and very very clean too. But it makes CO2 so we're all gonna die!

quote:

Originally posted by Aglifter:

D) A Tesla charger, for home use, uses the same amount of power as an oven.

I suspect it uses the same size circuit breaker. Having the same size circuit breaker and using the same amount of power is two different things. The wiring and circuit breaker for an oven is sized to run all the burners at the same time. I strongly suspect few people run all of their burners at the same time for 10 hours at a time five to seven days a week.

quote:

Originally posted by 1s1k:

As far as apartment complexes that’s not even a knee high hurdle that’s more like an ankle high hurdle. As EV proliferates the landscape these apartment could complexes will be putting in charging to attract more clients. It will be someone people look to as a plus for moving there. Anything built new will also have the capability. With just about every manufacturer going big into EV I wish they could all get together and come up with a common plug design that becomes a standard.

Until it happens, it's a moot point. Oh, and I'll believe it when I see it... locally. I would also hate to have to depend on an electric car after a Cat 5 hurricane rolls thru and the power is out for weeks or months.

BMW’s made about 325K in 2019.

Tesla made about 367K

quote:

Originally posted by Mboroman:
Back on 12/03, there was a good article in the Patriot Post on various government efforts to do away with ICE vehicles. One thing that I have wondered about that is mentioned is the materials necessary to build EVs. Here is a bit from the article:

Last year, Professor Richard Herrington of the Natural History Museum in London sent a letter to the British government after he and his colleagues analyzed what it would take to convert that nation’s cars to electric vehicles (EVs) by 2050, not 2035. They concluded that such a conversion would require, based on 2018 mining levels, the entire world’s production of neodymium, three-quarters of its lithium production, and at least half of its copper production to produce the required number of EVs — just for the UK.

America? “The U.S. has about 276 million registered motor vehicles, or roughly nine times as many vehicles as the U.K.,” explains columnist Robert Bryce. “Thus, if Herrington’s numbers are right, electrifying all U.S. motor vehicles would require roughly 18 times the world’s current cobalt production, about nine times global neodymium output, nearly seven times global lithium production, and about four times world copper production.”

That's a lot of mining. Are these eco-warriors going to allow that? These figures are for replacing the current vehicles on the road and not future ones. How much do we have in natural resources to keep building EVs? What about the age-old question of toxic battery materials when they wear out? It's starting to sound as though transportation of the future will be for the elites only.


Link to article: https://patriotpost.us/article...ter-autos-2020-12-03

This x1000

There is NO FEASIBLE WAY to create that many batteries with our current mining and resources. EV fleets are still in the dream stage. I am not saying it isn't technology we shouldn't consider but the ICE is the best bang for the buck in existence.

quote:

Originally posted by Aglifter:
BMW’s made about 325K in 2019.

Tesla made about 367K

Total Honda production of cars worldwide in 2019 - 5,000,000. That's one automotive company. One. Tesla is little more than a blip on the automotive radar when it comes to sales and percentage of market.

quote:

Originally posted by rsbolo:
There is NO FEASIBLE WAY to create that many batteries with our current mining and resources. EV fleets are still in the dream stage. I am not saying it isn't technology we shouldn't consider but the ICE is the best bang for the buck in existence.

I've said it for years and it still rings true. Alternative energy vehicles will only become mainstream and and the preferred choice of consumers after the next evolution of energy production and storage occurs. And that will 'not' be a version of the current paradigm of burning fossil fuels to generate electricity to be stored in Lithium or lithium like batteries. And unfortunately for government morons, innovation does not run at the speed they demand or are willing to fund.

Diesel electric hybrids are pretty well the gold standard for efficiency. I suspect that will be true for pickups, etc as electric drivetrain costs come down.

I suppose fuel cells would be a better option, especially NG ones, but I think those top out at 5KW these days.

(If were more effective to store energy as a charge than as a hydrocarbon, life would work that way.)

I do think, if we can solve the violence issues, there may be far fewer private cars.

I THINK most folks would prefer to live in something akin to townhouses, with transport in some kind of bicycle with a weather protected roadway, etc.

Cities seem to do their best to fight it*, but folks seem to buy into areas like that, by preference. It’s more efficient, especially with the advent of delivery services, etc.

(One of my friend, retired Wall St analyst, lives in such an area. He has a small “city car”, and just rents larger ones, when he drives long distances.)

*Not sure why they fight affluent townhouses so much. Maybe it’s local to my jurisdiction. Perhaps it’s an artifact of their taxing structure.

^^^ On what planet is that? I want a private car, always and forever. One that burns gas. And one day I want a house where I can't hear or see my neighbors. Townhouses? Covered bike paths? What? No thank you.

^^^^^^^^^^
Well there is a nice property available in your area. Mortgage payments a little steep though. ..

Tony Hsieh place is pretty nice.