quote:

Originally posted by sjtill:
I personally will be very disappointed if Trump stops--or forces the Israelis to stop--without finishing the IRGC.

Israel is known to have assets inside Iran. The Israelis are also known for quick and silent hits. I think the IRGC needs to be taken out, one by one... as they are not likely to congregate in one place again after our initial missile hit.

quote:

As of April 2026, Saudi Arabia has restored its "East-West Pipeline" (Petroline) to full capacity, moving up to 7 million barrels of crude oil daily from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. This strategic 1,200 km pipeline, which traverses the Arabian Peninsula, has become crucial for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz during regional tensions, mitigating risks to global oil supplies.

That pipeline will significantly hurt Iran!!

How many barrels per day went through the Strait?

This is good news.

quote:

Originally posted by tleddy:...
How many barrels per day went through the Strait?

20-21 million average.

And if Iran strikes the pipeline...

If Iran strikes the pipeline, the Saudis will light them up.

quote:

Originally posted by sigmonkey:

quote:

Originally posted by tleddy:...
How many barrels per day went through the Strait?

20-21 million average.

The real story is what percent of pre-war volumes each country has been able to bypass the Strait. Just Crude Oil per Grok:


The Saudis are the real winners here with their forward thinking, and UAE is a close 2nd with bypassing nearly 100%.

quote:

For those who don't have FB, the summary is Iran's neighbors are partially done doing the next best thing to building a canal:
Saudi built a large diameter pipeline to the Red Sea to reduce/eliminate their need to use their long-term port impacted by the Strait
Saudi built a container highway from Red Sea eliminating their need bring container ships through the Strait
Iraq built a pipeline to Turkey to reduce/eliminate their need to use their long-term port impacted by the Strait
UAE built a pipeline to Gulf of Oman to to reduce/eliminate their need to use their long-term port impacted by the Strait. This is why last week Iran extended their Strait "blockade" to include this new port.

That leaves Qatar and Bahrain potentially screwed. They need Saudi help to bypass the Strait.

Mildly surprised that countries that utilize the Strait haven't built in a more robust Plan-B when things get sporty in/out of the Gulf. Considering history over the last 70-80yrs, disruptions due in large part to Iran is inevitable so, build some resiliency into your transportation/distribution network. The above points are working, however the Saudi's now will build a larger capacity paralell pipeline to Yanbu with greater storage on the Red Sea; that port can only handle 1-2 VLCC's at a time. UAE is all business, I can see them closing a deal quick to get a pipeline set-up over to Oman, and Oman taking on a larger more visible role, as they've traditionally been a more behind the scenes, avoid any headlines type of relations. I stopped caring about Qatar awhile ago, they've been 'on the fence' trying to be mediators first with the Taliban now with Iran. Bahrain has had more and more extremist moving into government leadership forcing the royal family into a dangerous game.

Pakistan let Iran use its Nur Khan airbase to shield military aircraft from US attack, CBS report says
Tehran transferred multiple aircraft to the Pakistan Air Force base shortly after US President Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran in early April, according to the report.
Debdutta Chakraborty
12 May, 2026 10:05 am IST
File photo of Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi | X/@clashreport
File photo of Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi |
New Delhi: Amid Islamabad’s role as a peacebroker in the West Asia war, Pakistan allowed its Nur Khan airbase to shelter Iranian military intelligence aircraft, CBS News reported.

The arrangement, described by several US officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity, suggested Iran was seeking to preserve portions of its military aviation fleet from possible American strikes as the region edged closer to a wider war.

According to the officials quoted in the report, Iran transferred multiple aircraft to Pakistan Air Force (PAF) base Nur Khan, a strategically important installation near the garrison city of Rawalpindi, shortly after US President Trump announced a ceasefire in early April. Among the aircraft was an Iranian Air Force RC-130 reconnaissance plane, a surveillance variant of the Lockheed C-130 Hercules used for intelligence-gathering missions.

Iran also moved civilian aircraft into neighbouring Afghanistan as part of a broader effort to disperse aviation assets across the region, American officials said. It was, however, unclear whether military aircraft were also flown into Afghan territory as well.

A senior Pakistani official denied that Iranian aircraft had been stationed at Nur Khan, calling the allegation implausible given the base’s location near densely populated urban areas.

“Nur Khan base is right in the heart of the city,” the official was quoted as saying. “A large fleet of aircraft parked there cannot be hidden from public view.”

In Afghanistan, an aviation official said that a civilian aircraft operated by Iran’s Mahan Air landed in Kabul shortly before the conflict intensified and remained there after the Iranian airspace was closed. The official said Taliban authorities later relocated the aircraft to Herat, near the Iranian border, amid fears that Pakistani airstrikes targeting militant groups could endanger Kabul airport.

Zabihullah Mujahid, the chief Taliban spokesperson, told CBS News that there were no Iranian aircraft in Afghanistan and dismissed suggestions that Tehran required such assistance.

The disclosures come as Pakistan’s strategic alignment with China has deepened sharply over the past decade. Chinese officials have publicly praised Islamabad’s role in facilitating indirect communication between Iran and the US during the West Asia crisis.

At the same time, diplomatic efforts to stabilise the cease-fire appeared increasingly fragile. Iranian state media reported over the weekend that Tehran had proposed terms for ending the conflict that included American war reparations, recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of US sanctions.

The dispute threatened to overshadow Trump’s planned meetings this week in Beijing with President Xi Jinping, where the war in Iran is expected to feature prominently alongside tensions over trade and Taiwan.

The report soon sparked backlash in Washington, with US lawmakers raising doubts about Islamabad’s neutrality in the mediation efforts. In a post on X, senior Republican senator and Trump’s close ally Lindsey Graham called for a reassessment of Pakistan’s diplomatic role in the crisis.

“If this reporting is accurate, it would require a complete reevaluation of the role Pakistan is playing as mediator between Iran, the United States and other parties. Given some of the prior statements by Pakistani defense officials towards Israel, I would not be shocked if this were true,” he wrote on X.

Trump had agreed to extend the ceasefire, citing a request from Pakistan army chief Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. However, little progress has been made on central issues, including Iran’s enrichment programme and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

Despite the ceasefire announcement, Iran-US tensions remained high. According to the Iranian state media, Tehran sought US war reparations, recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and the lifting of American sanctions as part of a proposal aimed at ending the conflict.

The US President has dismissed Iran’s counterproposal as “totally unacceptable,” although he did not clarify which specific demands he was referring to.

There is also a growing sense that the Iranian leadership views the negotiation process less as a genuine effort at resolution and more as a strategic maneuver directed against them.

“In Tehran, there have been growing fears that the US is using the talks as a ruse to resume the war, as Trump maintained the naval blockade and boasted this week that Iran had agreed to most of his demands,” according to an FT article on how Pakistan became the mediator between the two.

According to Farzana Shaikh, associate fellow at Chatham House in London who is quoted in the article, “Pakistan is not truly a neutral party in this. It has a patron-client relationship with the US and Gulf states, and a vested interest in foreclosing Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon.”

https://theprint.in/diplomacy/...report-says/2928521/

quote:

Farzana Shaikh, associate fellow at Chatham House in London

I don't know much of anything about Farzana Shaikh, but if she went to Columbia she is probably rabidly anti-Trump:
PhD in Political Science, Columbia University, New York, 1983
https://www.chathamhouse.org/a...eople/farzana-shaikh

But I would tell her this: Most of the world has "a vested interest in foreclosing Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon.”

It will be interesting to see the long term effects on the economy. I have worked in the chemical industry since the 90’s and what is occurring now has never been seen before (to this extent). China steals technology and has flooded the market with chemicals and is forcing companies to pull out of Europe. It has also affected US markets and the oil problem is making things worse.

Oil prices lead to higher chemical feedstock prices leading to higher production costs and ultimately higher final product cost that affects all of us. Prices get high and people stop buying and it all backs up to the producers. When sales decline then layoffs start. Less money is being made and less is being spent at restaurants, grocery store, entertainment etc. It is a big ripple affect.

We are already seeing the effects on the economy. Everything we purchase is delivered by gasoline/diesel powered vehicles. Prices are climbing on many of the common items I purchase.

My neighbor got a quote back in early April for a new GAF Roof. $16,000. He held off. Now he has a leak so he got 2 quotes again since his old one was over 30-days old and expired. $18,500. (including the original company that quoted him). Shingles are a petro based product.

quote:

Originally posted by Graniteguy:
We are already seeing the effects on the economy. Everything we purchase is delivered by gasoline/diesel powered vehicles. Prices are climbing on many of the common items I purchase.

My neighbor got a quote back in early April for a new GAF Roof. $16,000. He held off. Now he has a leak so he got 2 quotes again since his old one was over 30-days old and expired. $18,500. (including the original company that quoted him). Shingles are a petro based product.

Rock River sent out an e-mail to dealers today about a price increase on heavy AR buffer due to increased price of tungsten. Prices are going up but I think they will rise a whole lot more than they are now.

If high energy prices hurt the economy than explain the record stock market, high wage growth, and strong job market? Yes, people have to pay a little more for gas but think of the millions of people working in the energy sector who benefit, the 401ks tied to energy stocks, etc.

quote:

Originally posted by Carpentermaass84:
If high energy prices hurt the economy than explain the record stock market, high wage growth, and strong job market? Yes, people have to pay a little more for gas but think of the millions of people working in the energy sector who benefit, the 401ks tied to energy stocks, etc.

The stock market is far more an index of buying and selling of assets and of inflation than it is a measure of economic health. We've all seen stocks go up radically past any rational valuation. We've also all watched the stock market go up while the price of food, housing, and everything else we need to live goes up. It is not a gauge for measuring economic health, only economic activity with a fiat currency in an inflationary cycle.

As for the job market and wages, both are down. Sure, if you want to design data centers (I've been approached by two recruiters in the last week), there are opportunities for significant pay. There are much fewer opportunities if you have a soul.

As for the job market itself, it's a bit of a dumpster fire. A lot of orgs are downsizing as they pursue AI solutions. Supposedly the US economy "added 115,000 nonfarm jobs, exceeding the estimate of 65,000 for the month of April." (AI summary on Brave). That's pathetic. We lost 156,000 jobs in February and had an increase in March.

Our economy isn't healthy. It's running from sugar high to sugar high.

Sure, your 401k, which is tied to stocks, is up. That's because of inflation and overvaluation of assets more than anything. Stocks get valued UP when companies lay people off.

How much is your 401K up YTD 2026?

A little short term pain for a long term gain is well, well worth it. No white flag waving from me

Recognizing that your dollar is shrinking in not white flag waving. Most of us want to see Iran crushed - let's pray this administration has the support to see this through.

quote:

Originally posted by Graniteguy:
How much is your 401K up YTD 2026?

What goes up must come down, it takes time for higher costs to be seen everywhere. We have not even seen the real effects of higher oil prices yet much less higher costs from everything else made with petro products.

I know someone who has a large business and buys lumber and building supplies from the manufacturers. He has already seen a price increase this month and it will hit the box stores soon.

Enjoy it while it lasts because it will not last.

I find myself going to grocery stores in particular. When I see something that is 2-5 times a price that it was pre-COVID, I'll do it without it. In all likelihood, I'm able to make that from scratch, which is always cheaper, as well as better quality.

I have seen quite a few people pick something up? Look at the price and put it back on the shelf?
And you say the best way to bring prices down is let these price gouging products sit on their shelves and expire.

quote:

I have seen quite a few people pick something up? Look at the price and put it back on the shelf?
And you say the best way to bring prices down is let these price gouging products sit on their shelves and expire.

I've done that with beef lately...
Beef and coffee have gone up a lot.