quote:

Originally posted by Rey HRH:
Yes, I believe in the accuracy of the inverted yield curve in forecasting a recession. I understand it to a degree but I'm surprised it's only a 70% consensus. What's the justification of the 30%?

The yield curve has inverted quite a few times in the last 10 years or so. While every recession has seen an inverted yield curve, not every inverted yield curve has predicted a recession.

To quote JALLEN, Figures lie and liars figure.

Tucker Carlson’s monologue last night on the Biden Administration lie aided and abetted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Fed and the usual suspects.