My point is a simple one: we have a stagnant/declining economy with negative growth on top of accelerating inflation. Pretty sure that’s the definition of stagflation.

quote:

Originally posted by SIGnified:
Was listening to Steven Moore this morning and agree with him that we are now clearly in the recession.

And hurtling towards a depression.

quote:

Originally posted by Expat:
Why aren't governments affected by recessions?

Because they're funded by OUR money and the fruits of OUR labors.

quote:

Originally posted by ZSMICHAEL:
Let's hope the folks in DC stay away from Price Controls.

I'm waiting for them to print up some WIN buttons.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...c_%22WIN%22_sign.jpg

With crazy house prices, high interest rates, consumer debt, escalating prices, shortages, people unwilling to work, national debt coupled with incompetent leadership - what would you expect? A big time recession of course.

No doubt in my mind we are in a recession.

What are we doing? Eating out much less than normal. Driving much less and combining errands as much as possible. I have quite a bit of lawn to mow but am doing it less often this summer.

I believe it will get worse before it gets better.

We are fortunate, only debt is house and 2 vehicles, and one of those will be paid off shortly.

After the market crapped the last go-round and then I endured a divorce, I've ensured my household can run on a single income if necessary.

We don't buy anything we can't afford, we budget carefully a year at a time, and don't buy dumb crap. I handle all maintenance of vehicles/home that I can. Our house is within 5 miles of our jobs, refinanced at 2.25% (thank god, because we had an adjustable rate before).

My job is recession-proof. My wife's is not but her company did not lay anyone off during the last recession. We're always trying to improve, but we are in a good spot.

But kids are freaking expensive!

A war on home produced energy, record high energy cost, record inflation out pacing wages and other income, rapidly increasing interest rates, that's called recession.
Early stages, but still recession.
Present admin is downplaying that, I feel, in some wild hope they can keep control of congress this fall.
We must work to win the super majority of R's back ( no RINO's ). in 2022 and 2024.

Second quarter is -1% growth now … That makes it pretty much nearly official.



We’ve passed stagflation…

Real inflation, if it would be calculated as it was in later 1970s with Jimmy Carter, would be running at over 15% now.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/ne...ZDER-JIM-TALENT.html

quote:

Originally posted by Bassamatic:
No doubt in my mind we are in a recession.

Absolutely. Today, right now.

quote:

Originally posted by ZSMICHAEL:
Let's hope the folks in DC stay away from Price Controls.

Price controls are actually supply controls. As soon as you impose price controls, the supply of the controlled items disappears.

quote:

Originally posted by oddball:

quote:

Originally posted by Bassamatic:
No doubt in my mind we are in a recession.

Absolutely. Today, right now.

We are at the frothy part right before it or at the beginning of it. Unfortunately the only cure for rampant inflation is a recession. So we need to pick between stagflation and recession, if we thread the needle perfectly then we can have very mild, short duration recession. Problem is you need two quarters of negative growth before you're 'in a recession' so we won't technically be in one for a bit longer, but many can look around and put 2 + 2 together. Be ready for early 80's interest rates, they are coming if the administration and Fed doesn't pull off a perfect routine and stick the landing.

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:

quote:

Originally posted by oddball:

quote:

Originally posted by Bassamatic:
No doubt in my mind we are in a recession.

Absolutely. Today, right now.

We are at the frothy part right before it or at the beginning of it. Unfortunately the only cure for rampant inflation is a recession. So we need to pick between stagflation and recession, if we thread the needle perfectly then we can have very mild, short duration recession. Problem is you need two quarters of negative growth before you're 'in a recession' so we won't technically be in one for a bit longer, but many can look around and put 2 + 2 together. Be ready for early 80's interest rates, they are coming if the administration and Fed doesn't pull off a perfect routine and stick the landing.

Powerball has better odds…

I’ve been watching prices on small cottages in northern Michigan and for around the last month seeing prices decline and properties staying on the market for longer times.

I’m out of the motorcycle business now so I don’t see what’s going on in that but in the 2008 until around 2012 while we were still selling bikes two things changed. First, prices were actually negotiable on bikes and second, customers were not accessorizing and doing performance upgrades as frequently as before.

Yes, we are in a recession and as others have pointed out, it is one of the cures to inflation. The challenge we face at the moment is still with supply chain constraints. There is also still a lot of Covid stimulus that is still pulsing through the economic system. Demand will fall, but supply won’t stack up like it would without the supply issues. To me, that suggests this whole event is going to last longer than the average recession. If a new build, back, bullshit bill gets passed raising taxes on the very businesses that create jobs it will have the same effect as a can of gas on a bonfire. Keynesian economics and MMT (Modern Monetary Policy) do not work or at a minimum have severe unintended consequences. These people are not very bright or most likely just purely evil.

We’re watching spending more closely than before but so far have been able to afford the rising prices.

It seems to me that high unemployment rates used to always accompany recessions. Why is that not happening with this one?

Try and go apply for a job; tell me what happens.

I know a ton of men of all ages simply not working. They just can’t deal with all the XGEN women in HR running their companies.

Did you catch the news from Walmart yesterday? Customers cut discretionary spending significantly in order to pay the rent last month. Consumers will turn on a dime. So will employers.

The US has met the definition of recession.

Link
First three paragraphs. You economic geeks such as myself follow the link for details.

The U.S. economy shrank for a second quarter in a row—a common definition of recession—as businesses trimmed their inventories, the housing market buckled under rising interest rates, and high inflation took steam out of consumer spending.

Gross domestic product, a broad measure of the goods and services produced across the economy, fell at an inflation and seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.9% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That followed a 1.6% pace of contraction in the first three months of 2022.

The report indicated the economy met a commonly used definition of recession—two straight quarters of declining economic output.