Everybody knows we’re in a recession.


Entertainment is watching the current administration lie about it all.

Forecast is going to get worse and deeper until they admit the problem

quote:

Originally posted by Warhorse:
It seems to me that high unemployment rates used to always accompany recessions. Why is that not happening with this one?

not sure of the answer, but why is there a labor shortage? Restaurants in particular can't keep their doors open around here because they can't find help.

People need paychecks, so I just don't get it.

Biden today upon this news:

This is liken economics version of a Monty Python skit. You know, the one with all his parts cut off and he's daring his opponent to to bring it on.

Except this one's not funny. OK, maybe a little funny.

With O'Biden as the puppet, this will be the longest recession in USA history.

The only things I can think of that are the reasons for the low unemployment rate are:
1. government under-reporting UE rate
2. people working for cash (under the table)
3. older workers are retiring early; not worth it to keep going to work.
4. a significant portion of two-income families are now one-income families

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
...if we thread the needle perfectly then we can have very mild, short duration recession.

Three words....Yellon, Powell, Biden. With these three geriatric retards running the show, I'd rank the odds of a 'perfect' landing somewhere around the same chance as being hit by lightning....three times in a row on the same day. My hope right now is that we somehow stay out of a full blown depression.

quote:

Originally posted by bigdeal:

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
...if we thread the needle perfectly then we can have very mild, short duration recession.

Three words....Yellon, Powell, Biden. With these three geriatric retards running the show, I'd rank the odds of a 'perfect' landing somewhere around the same chance as being hit by lightning....three times in a row on the same day. My hope right now is that we somehow stay out of a full blown depression.

Yeah, that's funny. The odds of the current people in charge managing to have a "very mild, short duration recession" is the same as the odds of VP Harris giving a speech and not saying something stupid.

I like how the Biden people are trying to redefine 2 quarters of negative GDP as not being a recession.

Buddy that was a real estate agent in Charlotte got laid off along with his entire office a couple weeks ago. From selling million dollar homes for cash in under 48 hours to jobless in less than three months. The lending and real estate sector lost about 10k jobs this month.

It’s going to get worse. Fortunately, wife and I have no debt, lots in savings (cash, food and essentials supplies, etc) but not many have the luxury of our situation.

The same people whose policies got us here are going to astutely maneuver us out of it- Snowballs chance in hell.

quote:

Originally posted by radioman:

quote:

Originally posted by Warhorse:
It seems to me that high unemployment rates used to always accompany recessions. Why is that not happening with this one?

not sure of the answer, but why is there a labor shortage? Restaurants in particular can't keep their doors open around here because they can't find help.

People need paychecks, so I just don't get it.

People have found other sources of income. I use a lot of Uber's/Lyft with my business. A lot of the drivers I talk to used to work somewhere else pre-covid, then turned to lyft/uber and they're making $1200-1500+ per week working it full time. Since it's Ft. Lauderdale, even though we're in a recession, a lot of people are still vacationing here and they're making a lot more money than what they used to do working in a company, can set their own hours, don't deal with co-workers and BS rules. If someone is an A-hole, they usually only have to deal with them as long as the car ride is.

Restaurants went all Ivy League MBA management tactics. Push the employees hard. Use 'em up and replace them with new recruits. Many restaurant jobs were seen by owners as filled by younger people who would be happy to move on soon, and so they treated their employees that way.

The word got out, and even pre-covid it was getting harder to find restaurant workers.

The under-30 crowd can be less than reliable workers, so there's that, too. They expect to make middle class wages doing entry level work. Not the same mindset as 40+ years ago when we were happy to have a job.

Around here they have been having a lot of trouble filling low-skill jobs. Restaurants, hotels, retailers, and the big resorts are all hurting.

Say what you like about Walmart, it’s still the largest retailer and its’ trend is worth noting.

From CNBC: Link

Walmart has begun to lay off corporate employees, the company confirmed Wednesday, about a week after it slashed its profit outlook and warned that consumers had pulled back on discretionary spending due to inflation.

In a statement to CNBC, the retail giant described the layoffs as a way to “better position the company for a strong future.”

Anne Hatfield, a Walmart spokesperson, declined to say how many workers will be affected and what divisions have experienced cuts. She said Walmart is still hiring in parts of its business that are growing, including supply chain, e-commerce, health and wellness, and advertising sales.

“Shoppers are changing. Customers are changing,” she said. “We are doing some restructuring to make sure we’re aligned.”

The corporate layoffs were first reported by The Wall Street Journal.

Walmart is the largest employer in the country, with nearly 1.6 million workers in the U.S. The company, seen as a bellwether for the nation’s economy, spooked investors July 25 when it cut its outlook for quarterly and full-year profit guidance. That warning had a chilling effect on the retail sector, dragging down the stocks of companies including Macy’s and Amazon and sending up a flare about the health of the American consumer.

Walmart said at the time that as shoppers spent more on necessities such as groceries and fuel, they were skipping over high-margin merchandise including apparel. It said it would have to cut prices to sell more of those items, especially as a glut of inventory piled up in its stores and at those of competitors such as Target and Bed Bath & Beyond.

Later that same week, Best Buy cut its profit and sales forecast, saying it was seeing softening demand for consumer electronics — big-ticket, discretionary purchases that some shoppers can postpone.

As recession worries linger, the U.S. jobs market appears increasingly segmented.

U.S. job openings in June dropped sharply, but the labor backdrop remains tight, with 1.8 open jobs per available worker. Many of the companies that boomed during the pandemic, including Walmart’s major competitor Amazon, have started to scale back on hiring.

Amazon’s headcount shrank by 99,000 people to 1.52 million employees globally at the end of the second quarter. The company’s workforce had almost doubled in size during the Covid health crisis as it rushed to keep up with customer demand for groceries, puzzles and more online.

That reduction was primarily due to attrition, Amazon Chief Financial Officer Brian Olsavsky said on a call with reporters after the company’s second-quarter earnings report last week.

Other companies, including Shopify and Robinhood, have also recently announced layoffs. And still others, such as Facebook parent Meta and Google parent Alphabet, have said they will slow hiring or focus on more productivity with current workers.

It’s unclear whether Walmart has also slowed its pace of hiring at stores and warehouses, which would allow attrition to shrink its workforce. The company will report its quarterly earnings on Aug. 16 and will likely provide an update on overall headcount.

Walmart is always hiring at stores and logistics because they treat everyone so horribly that they can’t retain anyone.

We’re seeing a huge drop in average ticket and foot traffic already. Last quarter we had almost 7% fewer customers than the same quarter previous year.

About time for that double-dip from 2scoops…

Consensus is 70% for 2023 recession now; the 2 annd 10 yr yield curve inverted, which has never missed the forecast for a recession.

Yet here we are shoving 4155 unread pages of $1.7 trillion through Congress to include more budget and $$$ for the corrupt and crooked effin,bee,i

My company is forecasting a tough year ahead. Money is getting expensive and hard to come by so that will limit new starts. Im feeling okay for the first half of the year but the second half has me guessing if I’ll be employed still….

Buckle up folks

quote:

Originally posted by SIGnified:
About time for that double-dip from 2scoops…

Consensus is 70% for 2023 recession now; the 2 annd 10 yr yield curve inverted, which has never missed the forecast for a recession.

Yet here we are shoving 4155 unread pages of $1.7 trillion through Congress to include more budget and $$$ for the corrupt and crooked effin,bee,i

But this time it's different. </sarcasm>

Yes, I believe in the accuracy of the inverted yield curve in forecasting a recession. I understand it to a degree but I'm surprised it's only a 70% consensus. What's the justification of the 30%?

Since I'm not driving yet I've been getting meals delivered. The delivery charges and tips probably help a lot for the drivers.

I haven't done anything much different except for getting stuff delivered instead of personal shopping. I'm well enough off that I can live with the higher prices.

flashguy