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Shy Trump Voters, Pollsters, and the Appeal to Ignorance https://spectator.org/shy-trum...appeal-to-ignorance/ In October 2015 the most venerable name in public opinion polling, Gallup, announced that it would no longer conduct horse-race election surveys or predict the outcomes of presidential contests. Gallup had been the gold standard for such polling since the 1930s, but, after calling the wrong winner in 2012, the organization’s leadership decided that capturing a representative voter sample during the final volatile phase of a national election had become all but impossible. Gallup was thus spared the humiliation endured by many pollsters in 2016. Most of its counterparts, however, remain in denial about the limitations of their obsolete methodology and are consequently producing wildly inaccurate 2020 results. Are October 2020 polls that purport to show former Vice President Biden ahead of President Trump significantly different than the mid-October 2016 surveys that indicated Hillary Clinton had all but won the election? The most obvious symptom of this intransigence is their refusal to consider the possibility that their models should contain some mechanism to account for the “shy Trump voter.” The latest excuse for failing to do so involves a rhetorical device that uses the defining characteristic of these voters to “prove” they don’t exist. Geoffrey Skelley, for example, writes at FiveThirtyEight that a recent Morning Consult poll “found little sign of shy Trump voters.” He reinforces his point by quoting another report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research that also found no evidence that such voters exist. This is a classic “appeal to ignorance” (i.e., the absence of proof is proof of absence). Shy Trump voters are, by definition, hidden. Many are people who rarely answer calls or texts from numbers they don’t recognize. These voters are very real but quite invisible to pollsters. Some shy Trump voters are willing to participate in some public opinion surveys, yet remain reluctant to level with pollsters. A recent IBD/TIPP poll found the following: “Overall, 20% of registered voters say they’re uncomfortable revealing their preferred candidate.” This isn’t the only survey to reveal such reticence. A recent Cato Institute poll found that the reluctance of conservatives to share their political views has increased from 70 percent to 77 percent since 2017. CloudResearch asked specifically about shy Trump voters: Such concerns were more often than not expressed by Republicans and Independents, and also by those who said they would vote for Donald Trump.… 11.7% of Republicans say they would not report their true opinions about their preferred presidential candidate on telephone polls.… 10.5% of Independents fell into the “shy voter” category, just a percentage point lower than how Republicans react to phone polls.… 10.1% of Trump supporters said they were likely to be untruthful on phone surveys — double the number of Biden supporters.… The results could have implications in terms of the true accuracy of phone polls. Indeed they could. Are October 2020 polls that purport to show former Vice President Biden ahead of President Trump significantly different than the mid-October 2016 surveys that indicated Hillary Clinton had all but won the election? For the comparable polls, there is little difference. The NBC/WSJ poll, for example, had Clinton up by 11 points on October 10, 2016. The NBC/WSJ poll showed Biden up by 11 points on October 12, 2020. Clinton was up by double digits in five polls between October 9 and October 16 of 2016. Biden has been up by double digits six times during the same seven-day period this year. At about this point in October 2016 Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers began their fatal decline. Meanwhile, actual mail-in and early voting data from key battleground states conflict with the Democratic narrative and Biden’s purported lead in the polls. In Michigan, the former vice president allegedly enjoys a 7.2 percent lead over President Trump. In Wisconsin, Biden purportedly enjoys a 6.3 percent lead over Trump in the polls. In Ohio, our erstwhile VP allegedly has a lead of 0.6 percent over the president. None of these leads has manifested itself in mail-in voting, where Democrats should have an advantage, nor in early voting at the ballot box. The Washington Examiner reports that, in all three of these crucial states, the Republicans are either keeping pace or actually ahead. In Michigan as of Wednesday, just over 1 million ballots have been returned, 40% from registered Democrats, with the same from registered Republicans. In Wisconsin, 40% of the 711,855 returned ballots have been from Democrats, while 38% have come from Republicans. The GOP actually leads in Ohio, with 45% of 475,259 early ballot returns coming from Republicans, compared to 43% from registered Democrats. The preliminary data matches up with the requests by party affiliation for mail-in ballots. The data contradicts national polls showing Biden supporters overwhelmingly plan to vote by mail or early in person. The data also seem to contradict claims made about the shy Trump voters. If there is no “silent majority,” why aren’t the Democrats ahead in the phase of the election upon which they have placed so much emphasis? They are enjoying expected mail-in leads in other battleground states, like North Carolina, but they always do. In 2016, Clinton had a seven-point lead in North Carolina on October 25, but Trump won the state by more than 3 percent on Election Day. In Florida and Pennsylvania, it was closer but the story was much the same. In the end, the pollsters are clueless and the “experts” are wrong on shy voters. All that matters is who shows up, and early Rust Belt turnout suggests another Trump victory. _________________________ "Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." Mark Twain | |||
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| Lawyers, Guns and Money  |
It all comes down to enthusiasm which drives turnout. For all their talk about empowering women and minorities, leftists have used all their vast media, tech, and deep state power to sell America a corrupt old white guy of diminished mental capacity. Does anyone wonder why they aren't enthusiastic? "Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." -- Justice Janice Rogers Brown "The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth." -rduckwor | |||
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quarter MOA visionary |
For them it is HATE that drives them, unfortunately. It is definitely not for enthusiasm for Biden. We need to pray that our LOVE is greater than their hate. | |||
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Plowing straight ahead come what may |
More on the lady in the red mask that nodded in approval and gave a thumbs up to our President in the democrat owned “town hall”...she has been doxed by the left... Link to original video: https://youtu.be/9eTmCQTFXeY ******************************************************** "we've gotta roll with the punches, learn to play all of our hunches Making the best of what ever comes our way Forget that blind ambition and learn to trust your intuition Plowing straight ahead come what may And theres a cowboy in the jungle" Jimmy Buffet | |||
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| Member |
 Bruce Springsteen Claims he will get out of America if Trump gets re elected  And that matters to anyone how? Safety, Situational Awareness and proficiency. Neck Ties, Hats and ammo brass, Never ,ever touch'em w/o asking first | |||
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Member |
Promise asshole? _____________________ Be careful what you tolerate. You are teaching people how to treat you. | |||
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Member |
just leave now... | |||
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Official Space Nerd |
Every. Friggin'. Election! Not ONE of these a-holes has ever actually followed through, as far as I can recall. Back in 2000 and 2004 scads of 'celebs' were crying about how they would leave the country if Bush were (re)elected. Seems you couldn't swing a dead cat in Cali without striking some idiot claiming they would leave (yet, they are still here). These idiots must be SO FULL of themselves that they think people would actually flock to the voting booths just to ensure their favorite celebrity doesn't move to Europe, Australia, or wherever else (I don't care where - JUST GO!) just because they think Orange Man Bad. Fear God and Dread Nought Admiral of the Fleet Sir Jacky Fisher | |||
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Get Off My Lawn |
He won't. Like 100% of the other asshole celebrities, he will chicken out and never talk about it again if confronted. "I’m not going to read Time Magazine, I’m not going to read Newsweek, I’m not going to read any of these magazines; I mean, because they have too much to lose by printing the truth"- Bob Dylan, 1965 | |||
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Don't Panic |
Talk is cheap. If they were serious, and had any integrity, they'd move out first and promise to only come back if Trump lost.  This message has been edited. Last edited by: joel9507, | |||
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Everyone of these idiots is nothing but 'attention seeking whores". Newsflash Springsteen, Nobody gives a shit abut your little threat and in reality, most of us wish you would actually leave, give up your citizenship and leave us alone. We can get along very well without you!!!. | |||
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A Grateful American |
  You go! Joli Mayra. https://www.jolilaw.com (And FWIW, her website is being DoS'd) "the meaning of life, is to give life meaning" ✡ Ani Yehudi אני יהודי Le'olam lo shuv לעולם לא שוב! | |||
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| 7.62mm Crusader |
Dude cant sing any how. Maybe we wont have to hear his noise again on the radio. | |||
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Member |
https://www.whas11.com/article...MqwNV6LsDC4ImaDhEzZY Yesterday, a civilian saw 100+ ABSENTEE BALLOTS and other political campaign paraphernalia in a dumpster behind a public school in my home town (Jeffersontown, KY—ZIP Code 40299, suburb of Louisville). Civilian contacted USPS Inspectors who recovered ballots and returned them to USPS for delivery. Today, USPS Postal Inspectors arrested said FORMER employee, and case has been referred to US Attorney for prosecution. Wife and I already were going to early vote in-person, as I’ve always distrusted the operations at this particular Post Office station. We’ve had too many things “go missing” from both our street mail box and inside postal facility box. --------------------- DJT-45/47 MAGA !!!!! "Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it." — Mark Twain “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.” — H. L. Mencken | |||
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| Lawyers, Guns and Money |
I thought Bruce Springsteen was cool in 1985... went to a show at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Since then, not so much. I remember when singers sang, and ball players played ball. I don't care about their politics and they should keep it to themselves. "Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." -- Justice Janice Rogers Brown "The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth." -rduckwor | |||
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Lighten up and laugh |
He is outstanding. Cutting out bureaucracy and getting the vaccine to seniors at no cost. | |||
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| Muzzle flash aficionado  |
I remember when singers sang, too. They stopped doing so in the 1950s. All they do now is shout. flashguy Texan by choice, not accident of birth | |||
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| wishing we were congress |
https://www.breitbart.com/2020...020-man-of-the-year/ Blue Magazine, a publication owned and operated by active and retired law enforcement officers, has named President Donald Trump its 2020 Man of the Year. from the story: In my humble opinion, he has been Man of the Year since his inauguration, because from day one of him sitting in the Oval Office, he has supported law enforcement and first responders like no other president in my lifetime. I have worked for six different presidents starting with Ronald Reagan and I respected every president I ever worked for. However, let me be clear, no president has done more for the men and women that carry that badge and gun than Trump. That is a stone-cold fact based on his words and actions. The person in the Oval Office greatly impacts the people on the front lines of law enforcement. The president sets the tone — either by what they say and do, or by what they don’t say and don’t do. No comparison, not even close. more at link | |||
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| A Grateful American |
Orange Man Blue. "the meaning of life, is to give life meaning" ✡ Ani Yehudi אני יהודי Le'olam lo shuv לעולם לא שוב! | |||
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