https://www.zerohedge.com/ener...nd-2026-usc-analysis

California gas prices could skyrocket by as much as 75 percent by the end of 2026 with the expected shutdown of oil refineries in the state, according to an analysis released May 5 by a researcher at the University of Southern California (USC).

Regular gasoline prices could rise from an average of $4.82 in April 2025 to as high as $8.44 a gallon by the end of next year, said the report, authored by Professor Michael Mische at the Marshall School of Business.

Two Phillips 66 refineries in Los Angeles—about 8 percent of the state’s oil refining capacity—are slated to close by the end of this year. Valero Energy Corp. also announced last month it will shut down or restructure its Benicia refinery in the San Francisco Bay area—which accounts for about 9 percent of refining capacity—by April 2026, increasing concerns over gas prices and supply.

The USC analysis states that based on current demand, consumption, state regulations, and other factors, the refinery closures could result in a potential 21 percent drop in refining capacity from 2023 to April 2026.

This could create a gasoline deficit potentially ranging from 6.6 million to 13.1 million gallons a day, said Mische.

“Reductions in fuel supplies of this magnitude will resonate throughout multiple supply chains affecting production, costs, and prices across many industries such as air travel, food delivery, agricultural production, manufacturing, electrical power generation, distribution, groceries, and healthcare,” he wrote.

Industry experts have also warned that gas prices will spike dramatically when the refineries close.

Phillips 66 said it was shutting down its LA refinery because of the uncertainty surrounding its long-term sustainability, and because of “market dynamics.”

More at link

I wonder how the middle and lower class will react when only the elite can afford to tool around in their supercars for fun?

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I wonder how the middle and lower class will react...

The middle class is being destroyed in California. Those who can leave will leave.
What remains is either super-rich or dependent on government.

Actually, they are all dependent on government. The super-rich are those in on the grift. It's how commies operate.

The end game is probably to drive out all of the refiners and oil companies so that California can take over the oil industry in the state. They can setup their own refineries, run them as a state monopoly, set their own prices, siphon off vast amounts of money into various slush funds and Democratic party fronts, ration fuel based on "equity", all while running the whole scam in the name of "climate change" and saving the planet. With Democrat-run California facing financial ruin after their covid money and USAID grift ran out, they must be looking around for new sources of cash.

So they will truck in fuel from neighboring states. Causing pollution from all those trucks, adding wear to the roads, and increasing traffic congestion. Good going, California!

It seems Cali. leadership is doing all kinds of weirdness and destruction to the middle/lower class, for the past few years more than most but they keep voting the same people in. My question is WHY?

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Originally posted by patw:
It seems Cali. leadership is doing all kinds of weirdness and destruction to the middle/lower class, for the past few years more than most but they keep voting the same people in. My question is WHY?

I would bet that the elections are corrupt.

Sucks for them

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Phillips 66 said it was shutting down its LA refinery because of the uncertainty surrounding its long-term sustainability, and because of “market dynamics.”

Meaning, that refinery doesn't make as much profit as it used to?

Gee. That’s a real shame.

Sucks to be them but they vote for dems time and time again so they must like it

When I drive to CA on business I have two Wavian gas cans in the truck bed. That’s 10 gallons I don’t have to buy there.

I think southern Nevada gets their gas through Cal. I think this will be a problem here also. Time to source through other states...

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Originally posted by WaterburyBob:

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Originally posted by patw:
It seems Cali. leadership is doing all kinds of weirdness and destruction to the middle/lower class, for the past few years more than most but they keep voting the same people in. My question is WHY?

I would bet that the elections are corrupt.

My neighbor's son still lives in CA - during the last election he was sent 18 mail in ballots...

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Originally posted by BigSwede:
Sucks for them

Sucks for us in the interior West too.

Somewhat related. My wife’s sister and husband live in SoCal. Their son, and his wife are looking to move out. They have two young children and California mandates that preschool aged kids be vaccinated for both Hepatitis and COVID, not just for school, but for daycare. I never thought he’d leave, he’s a hardcore surfer and (I thought) loved California. His kids are more important.

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Originally posted by Fly-Sig:
So they will truck in fuel from neighboring states. Causing pollution from all those trucks, adding wear to the roads, and increasing traffic congestion. Good going, California!

Arizona does not have even one refinery. None. They get their gas from Southern California and some by pipeline from Texas. That's a huge issue.
.

So, are you saying they’re gonna stop setting Tesla’s on fire?

California won't be the only one affected. Those refineries supply neighboring states.

This is one of my jihads against the single party rule in CA. We have the highest energy costs in the nation (fuel, electricity, gas, taxes) and usually one of the most anti business environment in the nation.

The refineries are shutting down, not expanding capacity, not modernizing, not investing beyond the short term. The state gov't has single handedly brought this on upon us by woke and wacky environmental policies that discourage business investment.

I didn't vote for this but am stuck with it for another 12-15 years.

There are multiple reasons why CA gas is so pricey- they have the highest gas tax, almost a buck per gallon, 3/4 of it for the state. They also have Cap & Trade compliance costs, adding more to each gallon. And finally, CA is so self-absorbed in smelling their own farts, they only allow a special gas formulation to meet their emissions requirements, adding even more to the cost per gallon. And the CA refineries all run at full speed to provide CA citizens their precious blend of gas, and if they start to lose these refineries, the limited supply will demand a higher price.

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Originally posted by oddball:
There are multiple reasons why CA gas is so pricey- they have the highest gas tax, almost a buck per gallon, 3/4 of it for the state. They also have Cap & Trade compliance costs, adding more to each gallon. And finally, CA is so self-absorbed in smelling their own farts, they only allow a special gas formulation to meet their emissions requirements, adding even more to the cost per gallon. And the CA refineries all run at full speed to provide CA citizens their precious blend of gas, and if they start to lose these refineries, the limited supply will demand a higher price.

Yeah. As a CA resident it would be against my own interests in the short term (just like the SALT deduction limitations that I also supported), but I kinda wonder / hope what would happen if once CA manages to convince all the refiners to shutdown and leave if all the refiners outside the state simply said “FU and your special snowflake blends. If you want gas at all, you can take the same gas we make for everyone else. If not, go attempt intercourse on a rolling donut.”

One kinda wonders how long the commies would last if people could get no gas…

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And finally, CA is so self-absorbed in smelling their own farts, they only allow a special gas formulation to meet their emissions requirements, adding even more to the cost per gallon. And the CA refineries all run at full speed to provide CA citizens their precious blend of gas, and if they start to lose these refineries, the limited supply will demand a higher price.

There will be riots in the streets!

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Originally posted by Expert308:

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Phillips 66 said it was shutting down its LA refinery because of the uncertainty surrounding its long-term sustainability, and because of “market dynamics.”

Meaning, that refinery doesn't make as much profit as it used to?

In April, they released their 1Q25 results and refining lost $937 million which follows 4Q24 performance of losing $759 million. Their 10Q doesn't state performance by refinery and I don't pretend to know those numbers.

20 years ago, I was in the oil & gas business in California and it sucks. It's a horrible legistlative environment where the refiner spends tens/hundreds of millions meeting new regulations and before they've recovered their investment either the regulations changes or regulatory interpretations by regulator changes. Additionally, the refineries I'm familiar with are completely surrounded by cities and some cities have even used eminent domain to take the safety buffer from refineries so they can have more homes/businesses/roads. In other words, it's a high risk and low reward business environment and the future looks even worse.