SIGforum.com    Main Page  Hop To Forum Categories  The Lounge    California Gas Prices Could Rise 75% By End Of 2026: USC Analysis
Page 1 2 
Go
New
Find
Notify
Tools
Reply
  
California Gas Prices Could Rise 75% By End Of 2026: USC Analysis Login/Join 
Member
posted
https://www.zerohedge.com/ener...nd-2026-usc-analysis

California gas prices could skyrocket by as much as 75 percent by the end of 2026 with the expected shutdown of oil refineries in the state, according to an analysis released May 5 by a researcher at the University of Southern California (USC).

Regular gasoline prices could rise from an average of $4.82 in April 2025 to as high as $8.44 a gallon by the end of next year, said the report, authored by Professor Michael Mische at the Marshall School of Business.

Two Phillips 66 refineries in Los Angeles—about 8 percent of the state’s oil refining capacity—are slated to close by the end of this year. Valero Energy Corp. also announced last month it will shut down or restructure its Benicia refinery in the San Francisco Bay area—which accounts for about 9 percent of refining capacity—by April 2026, increasing concerns over gas prices and supply.

The USC analysis states that based on current demand, consumption, state regulations, and other factors, the refinery closures could result in a potential 21 percent drop in refining capacity from 2023 to April 2026.

This could create a gasoline deficit potentially ranging from 6.6 million to 13.1 million gallons a day, said Mische.

“Reductions in fuel supplies of this magnitude will resonate throughout multiple supply chains affecting production, costs, and prices across many industries such as air travel, food delivery, agricultural production, manufacturing, electrical power generation, distribution, groceries, and healthcare,” he wrote.

Industry experts have also warned that gas prices will spike dramatically when the refineries close.

Phillips 66 said it was shutting down its LA refinery because of the uncertainty surrounding its long-term sustainability, and because of “market dynamics.”

More at link


_________________________
 
Posts: 13852 | Registered: January 17, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Wait, what?
Picture of gearhounds
posted Hide Post
I wonder how the middle and lower class will react when only the elite can afford to tool around in their supercars for fun?




“Remember to get vaccinated or a vaccinated person might get sick from a virus they got vaccinated against because you’re not vaccinated.” - author unknown
 
Posts: 16193 | Location: Martinsburg WV | Registered: April 02, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Lawyers, Guns
and Money
Picture of chellim1
posted Hide Post
quote:
I wonder how the middle and lower class will react...

The middle class is being destroyed in California. Those who can leave will leave.
What remains is either super-rich or dependent on government.

Actually, they are all dependent on government. The super-rich are those in on the grift. It's how commies operate.

The end game is probably to drive out all of the refiners and oil companies so that California can take over the oil industry in the state. They can setup their own refineries, run them as a state monopoly, set their own prices, siphon off vast amounts of money into various slush funds and Democratic party fronts, ration fuel based on "equity", all while running the whole scam in the name of "climate change" and saving the planet. With Democrat-run California facing financial ruin after their covid money and USAID grift ran out, they must be looking around for new sources of cash.



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor
 
Posts: 25701 | Location: St. Louis, MO | Registered: April 03, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
No More
Mr. Nice Guy
posted Hide Post
So they will truck in fuel from neighboring states. Causing pollution from all those trucks, adding wear to the roads, and increasing traffic congestion. Good going, California!
 
Posts: 10134 | Location: On the mountain off the grid | Registered: February 25, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
It seems Cali. leadership is doing all kinds of weirdness and destruction to the middle/lower class, for the past few years more than most but they keep voting the same people in. My question is WHY?
 
Posts: 7386 | Location: Treasure Coast,Fl. | Registered: July 04, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Void Where Prohibited
Picture of WaterburyBob
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by patw:
It seems Cali. leadership is doing all kinds of weirdness and destruction to the middle/lower class, for the past few years more than most but they keep voting the same people in. My question is WHY?

I would bet that the elections are corrupt.



"If Gun Control worked, Chicago would look like Mayberry, not Thunderdome" - Cam Edwards
 
Posts: 16835 | Location: Under the Boot of Tyranny in Connectistan | Registered: February 02, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
No, not like
Bill Clinton
Picture of BigSwede
posted Hide Post
Sucks for them



 
Posts: 6049 | Location: GA | Registered: September 23, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of Expert308
posted Hide Post
quote:
Phillips 66 said it was shutting down its LA refinery because of the uncertainty surrounding its long-term sustainability, and because of “market dynamics.”

Meaning, that refinery doesn't make as much profit as it used to?
 
Posts: 7638 | Location: Idaho | Registered: February 12, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Political Cynic
Picture of nhtagmember
posted Hide Post
Gee. That’s a real shame.

Sucks to be them but they vote for dems time and time again so they must like it

When I drive to CA on business I have two Wavian gas cans in the truck bed. That’s 10 gallons I don’t have to buy there.
 
Posts: 54424 | Location: Tucson Arizona | Registered: January 16, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
I think southern Nevada gets their gas through Cal. I think this will be a problem here also. Time to source through other states...
 
Posts: 383 | Location: Nevada | Registered: May 12, 2013Reply With QuoteReport This Post
So let it be written,
so let it be done...
Picture of Dzozer
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
quote:
Originally posted by patw:
It seems Cali. leadership is doing all kinds of weirdness and destruction to the middle/lower class, for the past few years more than most but they keep voting the same people in. My question is WHY?

I would bet that the elections are corrupt.

My neighbor's son still lives in CA - during the last election he was sent 18 mail in ballots... Roll Eyes



'veritas non verba magistri'
 
Posts: 4089 | Location: The Prairie | Registered: April 28, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Legalize the Constitution
Picture of TMats
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by BigSwede:
Sucks for them

Sucks for us in the interior West too.

Somewhat related. My wife’s sister and husband live in SoCal. Their son, and his wife are looking to move out. They have two young children and California mandates that preschool aged kids be vaccinated for both Hepatitis and COVID, not just for school, but for daycare. I never thought he’d leave, he’s a hardcore surfer and (I thought) loved California. His kids are more important.


_______________________________________________________
despite them
 
Posts: 14091 | Location: Wyoming | Registered: January 10, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Dances With
Tornados
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Fly-Sig:
So they will truck in fuel from neighboring states. Causing pollution from all those trucks, adding wear to the roads, and increasing traffic congestion. Good going, California!


Arizona does not have even one refinery. None. They get their gas from Southern California and some by pipeline from Texas. That's a huge issue.
.
 
Posts: 12141 | Location: Near Hooker Oklahoma, closer to Slapout Oklahoma | Registered: October 26, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
So, are you saying they’re gonna stop setting Tesla’s on fire?
 
Posts: 1600 | Registered: July 14, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
His Royal Hiney
Picture of Rey HRH
posted Hide Post
California won't be the only one affected. Those refineries supply neighboring states.



"It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual." Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning, 1946.
 
Posts: 20704 | Location: The Free State of Arizona - Ditat Deus | Registered: March 24, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
This is one of my jihads against the single party rule in CA. We have the highest energy costs in the nation (fuel, electricity, gas, taxes) and usually one of the most anti business environment in the nation.

The refineries are shutting down, not expanding capacity, not modernizing, not investing beyond the short term. The state gov't has single handedly brought this on upon us by woke and wacky environmental policies that discourage business investment.

I didn't vote for this but am stuck with it for another 12-15 years.


P229
 
Posts: 4012 | Location: Sacramento, CA | Registered: November 21, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Get Off My Lawn
Picture of oddball
posted Hide Post
There are multiple reasons why CA gas is so pricey- they have the highest gas tax, almost a buck per gallon, 3/4 of it for the state. They also have Cap & Trade compliance costs, adding more to each gallon. And finally, CA is so self-absorbed in smelling their own farts, they only allow a special gas formulation to meet their emissions requirements, adding even more to the cost per gallon. And the CA refineries all run at full speed to provide CA citizens their precious blend of gas, and if they start to lose these refineries, the limited supply will demand a higher price.



"I’m not going to read Time Magazine, I’m not going to read Newsweek, I’m not going to read any of these magazines; I mean, because they have too much to lose by printing the truth"- Bob Dylan, 1965
 
Posts: 18089 | Location: Texas | Registered: May 13, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Ammoholic
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by oddball:
There are multiple reasons why CA gas is so pricey- they have the highest gas tax, almost a buck per gallon, 3/4 of it for the state. They also have Cap & Trade compliance costs, adding more to each gallon. And finally, CA is so self-absorbed in smelling their own farts, they only allow a special gas formulation to meet their emissions requirements, adding even more to the cost per gallon. And the CA refineries all run at full speed to provide CA citizens their precious blend of gas, and if they start to lose these refineries, the limited supply will demand a higher price.
Yeah. As a CA resident it would be against my own interests in the short term (just like the SALT deduction limitations that I also supported), but I kinda wonder / hope what would happen if once CA manages to convince all the refiners to shutdown and leave if all the refiners outside the state simply said “FU and your special snowflake blends. If you want gas at all, you can take the same gas we make for everyone else. If not, go attempt intercourse on a rolling donut.”

One kinda wonders how long the commies would last if people could get no gas…
 
Posts: 7501 | Location: Lost, but making time. | Registered: February 23, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Lawyers, Guns
and Money
Picture of chellim1
posted Hide Post
quote:
And finally, CA is so self-absorbed in smelling their own farts, they only allow a special gas formulation to meet their emissions requirements, adding even more to the cost per gallon. And the CA refineries all run at full speed to provide CA citizens their precious blend of gas, and if they start to lose these refineries, the limited supply will demand a higher price.

Big Grin

There will be riots in the streets!



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor
 
Posts: 25701 | Location: St. Louis, MO | Registered: April 03, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Drill Here, Drill Now
Picture of tatortodd
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Expert308:
quote:
Phillips 66 said it was shutting down its LA refinery because of the uncertainty surrounding its long-term sustainability, and because of “market dynamics.”

Meaning, that refinery doesn't make as much profit as it used to?

In April, they released their 1Q25 results and refining lost $937 million which follows 4Q24 performance of losing $759 million. Their 10Q doesn't state performance by refinery and I don't pretend to know those numbers.

20 years ago, I was in the oil & gas business in California and it sucks. It's a horrible legistlative environment where the refiner spends tens/hundreds of millions meeting new regulations and before they've recovered their investment either the regulations changes or regulatory interpretations by regulator changes. Additionally, the refineries I'm familiar with are completely surrounded by cities and some cities have even used eminent domain to take the safety buffer from refineries so they can have more homes/businesses/roads. In other words, it's a high risk and low reward business environment and the future looks even worse.



Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity

DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.
 
Posts: 24397 | Location: Northern Suburbs of Houston | Registered: November 14, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
  Powered by Social Strata Page 1 2  
 

SIGforum.com    Main Page  Hop To Forum Categories  The Lounge    California Gas Prices Could Rise 75% By End Of 2026: USC Analysis

© SIGforum 2025