Maybe I see your point(s):

Europe should step up to the plate instead of expecting uncle sugar to take out their own trash

Americans were stupid enough to vote in Biden, so let them eat their cake

Whatever else I'm missing...

quote:

Originally posted by Il Cattivo:

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
What do you think will happen when NATO (most likely an American or British contingent) shoots down a Russian aircraft?

I think this keeps Russian airplanes and missiles out of areas where that's likely to occur. If not, then the Russians can hardly claim that a legitimate act of self-defense justifies WWIII when their own errors made self-defense necessary.

The question is- what do you think will happen? Forget the moral imperatives and play this scenario out in your mind.

Good point, that really IS the right question. I'm not smart enough to answer it, but if I was the POTUS and just leaned that the US just shot down a Russian fighter in a combat area, I'd pucker up since it's something I obviously lost control of, which is Biden's default setting. Other things being equal I'd probably call that a FUBAR.

All that is going to happen is that a couple of Russians are going to be sanctioned and another stern warning not to let it happen again.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
The question is- what do you think will happen? Forget the moral imperatives and play this scenario out in your mind.

I've done just that. I don't think the Russians really have the resources to take on a broader fight, and I think they're keenly aware of that. I also think that the Russians have a history of trying to intimidate other countries and of pushing their luck until someone bops them on the nose. The Wagner attempt to seize a power station in Syria from an American military unit that resulted in hundreds of Russian deaths comes to mind - there certainly wasn't any blowback over that.

Well since the collapse of FTX, there will likely be no good dimmerwit replies to the desperate calls from Ukraine for more billions in $$$/funding. Apparently a lot of Ukrainian elites/pols lost their fortunes stored with SBF.

Money pipeline is broken now, and done dried up… maybe …

quote:

Originally posted by Il Cattivo:

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
The question is- what do you think will happen? Forget the moral imperatives and play this scenario out in your mind.

I've done just that. I don't think the Russians really have the resources to take on a broader fight, and I think they're keenly aware of that. I also think that the Russians have a history of trying to intimidate other countries and of pushing their luck until someone bops them on the nose. The Wagner attempt to seize a power station in Syria from an American military unit that resulted in hundreds of Russian deaths comes to mind - there certainly wasn't any blowback over that.

The fact that you won't answer my question, answers my question.

quote:

Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
I've done just that. I don't think the Russians really have the resources to take on a broader fight, and I think they're keenly aware of that. I also think that the Russians have a history of trying to intimidate other countries and of pushing their luck until someone bops them on the nose. The Wagner attempt to seize a power station in Syria from an American military unit that resulted in hundreds of Russian deaths comes to mind - there certainly wasn't any blowback over that.

That Wagner incident gave Putin an easy out - they were not acting under the Russian military command.

Shooting down an RuAF jet would be another thing. Russians do have plenty of other resources (i.e. tactical nukes). Shooting down a RuAF might give Putin such an excuse to hit Ukraine with one. I don't think NATO would want to push this anymore than they have to - which I suspect would be moving/activating Patriot batteries for intercept if something else might errantly comes along.

It seems to me that this is likely an "Oops...sorry!". I don't mean to belittle the loss of innocent life, mind you, but I doubt that this was in any way intentional.

What Poland and NATO should do, is tell Ivan that if it happens again, where that missile came from will cease to exist.

Some folks seem to think that it was a Ukrainian S-300:

S-300 AD system

I have no idea but I'd rather not have WWIII.

This aint WW3.

WW1 started because some asshole assassined another asshole.

Cooler heads prevail in 2022.

Russia will deny, or maybe even apologize (behind closed doors), pay some money to the families, and then time goes on.

Just another small blip in history.

As for shooting down Russian jets, Turkey shot one down and it was a big nothing burger. Putin wouldn't do shit if NATO shot down 10 Russian jets.

And it is very likely that Ukraine fired the missile.

I'm guessing it's still premature for the folks over there to begin the peace process.

I'm thinking Zelinski did it in order to drag NATO into the action.

I was a young Army infantry lieutenant in Saudi Arabia in January 1991 waiting for the ground war to start after the air campaign. Sadaam intentionally launched at least 40 Scud missiles at Israel between January and February with the goal of drawing them into the war, thus bringing about a much larger war involving many more Muslim nations. Israel never took the bait.

Now we've got the most corrupt, inept "CinC" the US has ever had, who doesn't listen to his military commanders. I think Poland and NATO can hold off on retaliation if Israel could do it.

I can say the poles and other former Soviet block countries, when I was in Afghanistan, were the first to saddle up and move to assist troops in contact. They understood what it was like to live under socialism and don’t want any part of it ever again.
Only wish we could give all those young leftist voters a dose of socialism for 6-12 months, so they change voting patterns and run commies ( aka leftist progressive democrats out of town or preferably over a cliff into a crocodile filled river

quote:

originally posted by bubbatime:
Putin wouldn't do shit if NATO shot down 10 Russian jets.

You sound really confident. You realize this war could still turn into an “all-in” poker game.

Ol' Vladimir is crazier'n a shithouse rat.

quote:

Originally posted by Il Cattivo:

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
The question is- what do you think will happen? Forget the moral imperatives and play this scenario out in your mind.

I've done just that. I don't think the Russians really have the resources to take on a broader fight, and I think they're keenly aware of that. I also think that the Russians have a history of trying to intimidate other countries and of pushing their luck until someone bops them on the nose. The Wagner attempt to seize a power station in Syria from an American military unit that resulted in hundreds of Russian deaths comes to mind - there certainly wasn't any blowback over that.

Comparing the Battle of Khasahm with knocking-down Russian Air Force planes out of the sky, that take off from their home soil are two completely different issues. At the very least, the use of the Wagner Group allows Russia to deny or, disregard their actions; 'they're contractors we're not responsible for them.'

As for setting up a No-Fly Zone, this was brought-up back in the early days of this invasion, and all the know-nothings with zero skin in the game, where beaten-down with facts. Western No-Fly Zone enforcement requires an immense amount of resources, responding to EVERY, SINGLE incursion. What happens when an AWACS or, Rivet Joint gets shot-down? That's 20+ crew members from 5-6 countries lost...is the response to launch Alpha Strikes into Russia to knock-out several airfields?

Mooch and Hozer debate and clarify this quite clearly




As for these missiles, shitty guidance; it's plausible some Ukrainian electronic warfare usage garbled the missiles insides and threw it off.

Whoopski...

It is really starting to get interesting over there.

Russia has knocked down an entire civilian airliner and it didn’t start anything. Why would this incident widen the violence?