The West's 360-Degree Cycle of EV Collapse Enters Its Next Phase
The collapse of the Western world’s EV boomlet has evolved rapidly over the last year or so. The first inklings made their way into the legacy media with a rash of complaints by car dealers around the US that their lots were being overwhelmed with electric models shipped in by carmakers that customers did not want to even test drive, much less buy.

That quickly evolved into dealers refusing to take delivery of additional inventory, forcing the supply bottleneck back to the factories. In the Fall, stories circulated that more than a thousand of Ford’s US dealers had outright refused to even take part in that company’s EV costly training and sales program entirely. The company had worked hard to keep that story from public view even as it reported multi-billion-dollar quarterly losses from its struggling Mode e EV division across the year.

Late in 2023, it became obvious that pure-play EV makers like Fisker, Rivian and others were falling into imminent insolvency issues amid government statistics that first showed the rate of demand growth for EVs slowing, and quickly evolved into showing little to no growth at all. It seems almost inevitable that the second half of this year will be filled with news of EV demand contracting in real terms as both consumers and companies retreat from the EV mania that was driven by government propaganda adn eagerly parroted by a lapdog media establishment.

The first half of 2024 has been filled with company-specific stories that serve as clear indicators of the demand collapse to come. Tesla reported its worst financial results in recent memory, with Q1 deliveries dropping drastically from Q4 2023, and even significantly lower than Q1 2023. Tesla and other US EV makers invoked dramatic price cuts to try to sell off their bloated inventories, with Rivian discounting the asking price for its full-size SUV model by a whopping 40%.

Ford Motor company conceded to reality in April, announcing delays in previously planned multi-billion-dollar investments in new EV and battery plants, along with a strategic shift in which it will phase down pure EV models in favor of introducing new lines of hybrid cars across its model lines. That latter announcement came as Ford admitted it had lost a stunning $132,000 per EV unit sold during Q1 2024.

Similar dynamics have been at play across Europe during the same time frame, with the added depressing complication brought by China’s rapidly growing presence in the EV market there. Fortune reported in April that EU sales of Chinese EVs exploded to $11.6 billion in 2023, as compared to $1.6 billion in 2020. Fortune reports that Chinese car companies like BYD are able to undercut prices for similar EV models made by Tesla and legacy European carmakers by thousands of Euros, forcing competitors into a price-cutting war they cannot hope to win.

Elon Musk called on the EU to invoke punitive tariffs on Chinese imports during his earnings call in January, saying, “Our observation is generally that Chinese car companies are the most competitive car companies in the world. If there are no trade barriers established, they will pretty much demolish most other car companies in the world.”

As a pure-play EV maker, Musk and Tesla have little choice but to beg the government for what would effectively be more subsidies for a company that was built through leveraging government rents. But legacy carmakers like Stellantis, which owns both Chrysler in the US and Fiat in Europe, have more options.

Those options include executing a strategic shift similar to Ford’s April announcement. Automotive News Europe reported Monday that Stellantis will do just that in its Fiat operations with a plan to make a gasoline version of its full-electric 500e car with a mild hybrid powertrain.

According to ANE, “The current 500 gasoline model, first launched in 2007, is built in Poland, where production has already ceased. The 500e is slightly larger and is built on a different platform that was designated as electric only, so using the platform for a mild hybrid derivative of the minicar is uncommon.”

Thus, we now see automakers in both the US and Europe moving into the inevitable next phase of the EV collapse cycle. In the first phase, the rent-seeking legacy car makers, desperate to feed whole hog at the government trough, introduced an array of battery-electric versions of their ICE car models, like the Ford F-150 Lightning. In the second phase, as inventories of unsellable EVs began to overwhelm their dealer and factory lots, they slowed and/or cancelled major investments in new EV infrastructure while also heavily discounting EV prices to cut down costly backlogs.

Now, as enormous financial losses continue to mount up, we see them entering into phase three, in which they start to make hybrid copies of their EV models.

Phase four, which is also inevitable, will see some, if not all of the West’s legacy carmakers cancel many EV models outright, with some even abandoning unprofitable EV divisions like Ford Model e entirely, as their Boards and investors move into full revolt mode.

We are now 270 degrees into this inevitable 360-degree cycle of EV failure and economic ruin. At the rate things are going, phase four, the final 90 degrees, seems destined to begin either late this year or early in 2025.

Stay tuned.

That is all.

https://blackmon.substack.com/...e&utm_medium=reader2

Good. Rolling lithium ion battery fire shitboxes need to fail. Take away all gubment mandates & subsides & let the free market decide.

Automakers should have improved on hybrid designs while waiting for (or demanding before entering such a risky venture) governments to make the necessary improvements to energy production and replacement of antiquated power grids. Rushing unsafe tech to market will set EV’s back many years, and that doesn’t bother me one bit. And as for China? Chinese EV’s are GARBAGE, like much of the disposable trash they make. They will sell even worse than domestic choices.

Not good for the Blue Oval project near Memphis.

We recently purchased a new car. The factory was offering lots of big incentives to buy electric, with plenty of inventory. The dealer pointed it out immediately, but as soon as I said "nope" he chilled. Nice older guy, we had a good conversation. He gets a free demo car and chooses the electric version. Free charger at work, so his total cost is zero. But he said nobody wants an electric SUV in the mountains of Utah due to distances and cold temperature.

Just like 1970, when Americans wanted their big vehicles. A subset wanted cheap economical commuter cars. The Japanese jumped in and grabbed the econo market. Today there is a market for cheap small electric vehicles for around town.

But the market for high dollar electric vehicles is really negligible. Absent the car and electricity being completely free, that salesman would be driving something gasoline powered.

GM is on top of this

They are loading us up with the Blazer EV, we have 8 now and haven't sold one yet. The Equinox EV and Silverado EV are on the way. Idiots

The Blazer is $50k plus, the Equinox might sell at $30k-ish. The Silverado is a turd at $85k for a work truck and right at $100k for a mid level


The Volt is what they need to bring back

Good

They did two things wrong. First they listened to the government and not the people. Secondly they didn’t say no.

Stupid is supposed to hurt.

The EV may have a future some day. But not now, not tomorrow and probably not for the next 25 years or so.

We dont have the infrastructure to support EVs nor is the electrical grid and 40 year old wiring designed to handle the loads.

It’s a nice idea who’s time hasn’t come.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: nhtagmember,

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:
Automakers should have improved on hybrid designs while waiting for (or demanding before entering such a risky venture) governments to make the necessary improvements to energy production and replacement of antiquated power grids. Rushing unsafe tech to market will set EV’s back many years, and that doesn’t bother me one bit. And as for China? Chinese EV’s are GARBAGE, like much of the disposable trash they make. They will sell even worse than domestic choices.

Hybrids (HEV) are overly complex to build for the 10-15% gain in gas mileage.
One of the biggest positives from an automaker standpoint is the cost to build an EV vs a Gas or HEV vehicle.
The cost (components & assembly) of a modern V6 - DOHC, variable valve timing, direct injection, turbo(s), etc plus an 8+ speed transmission is outrageous.
In comparison, an electric motor is simple & cheap. Most EVs don't have a transmission.

With HEV, you get the worst of both worlds.

quote:

Originally posted by BigSwede:


The Volt is what they need to bring back

I disagree. The Geo Metro is what they need to bring back. I learned how to drive a standard transmission on a 1993 Geo Metro with a 3 cylinder engine and back then it got 40-45 mpg. If they found a way to increase the power, safety and put modern tech into it they could easily break 60, 70 mpg. Here's a link to mpg competitions Geo Metro owners have amongst themselves:


https://jalopnik.com/how-to-ge...-a-geo-metro-5558345


According to them they regularly break 90 - 100 mpg with the modifications listed. Imagine if GM and their engineers put some effort into improving upon that design with modern tech while keeping it affordable. It would blow away the EV as we know it today.

quote:

Originally posted by snidera:

One of the biggest positives from an automaker standpoint is the cost to build an EV vs a Gas or HEV vehicle.

Yet they charge almost DOUBLE for the EV, then there is no way to charge it.

It should come bundled with a transformer or be built into the car with a 30 amp service.

They should bring back the Honda Civic CRX HF. I would routinely get 60+ mpg between city and highway driving. 10.6 gal tank-over 600 miles on a tank.

Loved that car.

quote:

Originally posted by Hildur:

I disagree. The Geo Metro is what they need to bring back. I learned how to drive a standard transmission on a 1993 Geo Metro with a 3 cylinder engine and back then it got 40-45 mpg. If they found a way to increase the power, safety and put modern tech into it they could easily break 60, 70 mpg. Here's a link to mpg competitions Geo Metro owners have amongst themselves:


https://jalopnik.com/how-to-ge...-a-geo-metro-5558345


According to them they regularly break 90 - 100 mpg with the modifications listed. Imagine if GM and their engineers put some effort into improving upon that design with modern tech while keeping it affordable. It would blow away the EV as we know it today.

Won't happen. 80s and 90s tiny cars that got high MPX ran lean and had tremendously high NOx emissions which now the EPA frowns upon. They would get turned to dust in a crash with a modern vehicle. No matter how many people say "they should make a back to basics car/truck/suv", no one ever buys one.

quote:

Thus, we now see automakers in both the US and Europe moving into the inevitable next phase of the EV collapse cycle. In the first phase, the rent-seeking legacy car makers, desperate to feed whole hog at the government trough, introduced an array of battery-electric versions of their ICE car models, like the Ford F-150 Lightning. In the second phase, as inventories of unsellable EVs began to overwhelm their dealer and factory lots, they slowed and/or cancelled major investments in new EV infrastructure while also heavily discounting EV prices to cut down costly backlogs.

Good article, but I have a couple questions. What does the phrase "rent seeking" mean with respect to the car manufacturers?

quote:

We are now 270 degrees into this inevitable 360-degree cycle of EV failure and economic ruin. At the rate things are going, phase four, the final 90 degrees, seems destined to begin either late this year or early in 2025.

I have a question about the "inevitable 360 degree cycle" too. Wouldn't 360 degrees put the EVs right back on the path they were on before?

We wonder at the price tag of an internal combustion engined F150, Silverado, Suburban, etc.
The auto manufacterers aren't selling any EVs and they are expensive to make.

They are trying to make up the difference with "normal" vehicles.

If this hadn't happened and they were able to sell the things, we'd just bump up against the next hurdle, the infrastructure to keep them charged.

Add to that, the lack of highway road taxes on fuel that maintain our highway system.

One hopes that this is not just pushing back on EV but the whole climate change narrative used as a basis.

The city and county just sucked enough ass and gave up enough consessions to get a large EV battery plant built here. Lots of employees needed they promised. They just broke ground this spring. They just last week that they were cutting back and suprised us with "revised" plans including cuts to promised safety and a huge larger then previously suggested area map of what would have to be evacuated in place of a fire.

I would not be surprised if it doesn't pull out before it is even completed.

The whole issue is the Biden Administration trying to force the American public to buy one.

Most of us don’t like to be told what to do, particularly when it could cost us more….

Having said that we recently bought a Model Y long range and love it! We took advantage of all the tax credits (don’t blame me for playing the game) and it has been great. We’ve taken 4 hour road trips without an issue and we mostly charge at home.

The problem, other than the .gov mandates, is that the major auto makers have been sitting on their collective asses too long and when Tesla came along with their revolutionary way of building a car much cheaper than they could they started crying to Washington “save me!, save me!”

Charging $50K for a basic Chevy SUV and 100K for a pick up is not going to fly with the majority of the American public.

BTW, I know that no EV will not be able to do everything I may need a vehicle to do and that’s why I have a F-350 diesel and a few other vehicles as well. Adding EV’s to the mix of options for the American public is actually smart.

quote:

Originally posted by TMats:

quote:

We are now 270 degrees into this inevitable 360-degree cycle of EV failure and economic ruin. At the rate things are going, phase four, the final 90 degrees, seems destined to begin either late this year or early in 2025.

I have a question about the "inevitable 360 degree cycle" too. Wouldn't 360 degrees put the EVs right back on the path they were on before?

Yes.

That article reads like a hit piece. I wonder what the author’s background is? Probably works for big oil