I would be more worried if I lived in Bermuda.

quote:

Originally posted by Blume9mm:
I would be more comfortable if the various weather folks were predicting that it was coming straight for us.

^^^^^^^^^^^
Not really. NHC has greatly improved their forcasting long term. We only got a three day notice of Katrina. Friday afternoon it was predicted to hit Florida, a day later it was the MS.Gulf Coast. Now it is five days notice. If you want the scoop without any hype look at the NHC site. It has the track and the rationale.

Hmmm, we're due to sail south from the Northeast to Louisiana right about the time that Hurricane looks to be coming up the coast.

Shit.

quote:

Originally posted by 229DAK:
I would be more worried if I lived in Bermuda.

Nah, I wouldn't. The Bermuda would swallow Lee up whole.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
Hmmm, we're due to sail south from the Northeast to Louisiana right about the time that Hurricane looks to be coming up the coast.

Shit.

Break the anchor windlass?

I thought I had posted this,

https://earth.nullschool.net/#...2/loc=-77.278,37.382

quote:

Originally posted by Nuclear:
Just remember, while the models do a pretty good job of predicting the path of hurricanes, the models do a shitty job of predicting intensity.

No kidding. From 5am on Thursday to 5am on Friday that thing went from 80mph winds to 165mph winds. Way, way quicker, and stronger, than any forecast on Thursday morning. And now they are saying 180mph is possible. Whew, please, please stay out to sea.

Read the NHC discussions they discuss intensity. However it is true that the models for intensity are less reliable.

Looks like Hurricane Lee will stay "safely" offshore. Stay tuned for the next catastrophe!

Lee

quote:

Originally posted by Loswsmith:
Looks like Hurricane Lee will stay "safely" offshore. Stay tuned for the next catastrophe!

The fearmongering news media must be heartbroken to hear that.

It used to be- decades ago- that the news media reported on these events in earnest. It may be hard for younger people to believe, but it's true. The media conveyed information about such events which was intended to allow the public to make decisions which would keep them and their their families safe; it was a public service. But now, these reptiles just see dollar signs. It's sickening to listen to the fearmongering; for example, talking about the "unprecedented" hurricane- the last one which passed through Florida, which, even now, I'm having trouble remembering its name. They pull this shit all the time and I am sick of it. Ever since Katrina- which was not taken seriously until after it hit New Orleans- these snakes gin up fear at the first possible moment and they keep it up until well after a storm has subsided. Every storm is "the big one" and the underlying message is- yep, you guessed t: climate change. We're all gonna die. Every. Time.

Forecasting has improved along with 24 hr media to create an event the rest of the nation can enjoy. Hurricane Camille in 1969 rated a blurb from Walter Conkrite. Katrina caused a flood in NOLA when the levees broke but absolutely destroyed 28 miles of shoreline in Mississippi where the eye came ashore. I try to just read the coverage at the NHC which is accurate and without hype. All this stupidity was started by Dan Rather in Hurricane Carla when he held on to a pole when the storm made landfall. I guess it is vicarious pleasure watching someone else's life being torn apart.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:

quote:

Originally posted by Loswsmith:
Looks like Hurricane Lee will stay "safely" offshore. Stay tuned for the next catastrophe!

The fearmongering news media must be heartbroken to hear that.

It used to be- decades ago- that the news media reported on these events in earnest. It may be hard for younger people to believe, but it's true. The media conveyed information about such events which was intended to allow the public to make decisions which would keep them and their their families safe; it was a public service. But now, these reptiles just see dollar signs. It's sickening to listen to the fearmongering; for example, talking about the "unprecedented" hurricane- the last one which passed through Florida, which, even now, I'm having trouble remembering its name. They pull this shit all the time and I am sick of it. Ever since Katrina- which was not taken seriously until after it hit New Orleans- these snakes gin up fear at the first possible moment and they keep it up until well after a storm has subsided. Every storm is "the big one" and the underlying message is- yep, you guessed t: climate change. We're all gonna die. Every. Time.

I wish it was just climate change, but it's EVERYTHING in the media now (and I mean all media right, left, "center (if that exists any more"): Guns, crime, salt, natural gas, nuclear power, paper straws, plastic bags, education, medicine, the Barbie movie, you name it.

If you're for it, THEY'RE GONNA TAKE IT AWAY!!

If you're against it, IT'S COMING TO GET YOU!!!!

If you are just trying to learn about the situation to make up your own mind, F*^K OFF!! Facts don't sell (clicks, papers, ads, whatever)! Your eyeballs and brain cells need not linger here.

I'm 54 years old and I can't stand to read most "news" AT ALL it's so short of facts. And I think I'm too young to be saying "dadgumit it wasn't like that in my day" but it sure feels like it.

But everyone be sure to read my Bubble man poll for an example of real, important news at NPR (which, to be fair, they did label as strange news). I bet Hurricane Lee would have solved that issue.

3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning Sunday. Continue to monitor updates to Lee's
forecast during the next several days.
ABOVE from NHC site. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/...+shtml/081454.shtml?

Classic

He is an idiot thought he was fired.

That was from Hurricane Matthew.

I never saw that. What an asshole!!!

I live in the Gulf Coast so I keep an eye on hurricanes. I don't mean watching the news, but instead mean keeping an eye on National Hurricane Center, Tropical Tidbits (i.e. where Spaghetti Models points), and hype free sites (e.g. Houston focused Space City Weather).

The reason is that the news and social media "weather" people pull shit that'd make the paparazzi blush. For example, last hurricane season one of the assclowns was fearmongering depressions off the coast of Africa that at best were 15+ days out (if they even formed, if they even made landfall, if, if, if, etc), but zero models were considered even relatively accurate more than 10 days out. I suspect it was just to drive traffic to his social media sites.

As far as Lee, as of one minute ago zero models on Tropical Tidbits are showing it hitting CONUS. Might hit Canada. In other words, the stage it's at is a check on the models once or twice a day but don't lose sleep over it. However, some of the mainstream media has Hurricane Lee banners scrolling across the screen while others have it at the top of the site with titles including words like "historic."