From the moment this storm was seen, it was known as extremely unlikely to reach the Eastern seaboard. Didn't stop the hysteria. 10 years ago we would have barely even heard of it.

Still not looking like huge impacts on NE, but that does illustrate how inaccurate their models and steering estimates can be days and weeks out. By their I mean the actual NHC, not the local panic-purveyors.

quote:

Originally posted by sse:
From the moment this storm was seen, it was known as extremely unlikely to reach the Eastern seaboard. Didn't stop the hysteria. 10 years ago we would have barely even heard of it.

For some reason utube decided I wanted to watch weather updates from utube weathermen. Everyone one of them were fantastical. They would show you the models on the expected path and then tell you how it *MIGHT* still hit Florida and we should all stay tuned.

They are still pretty accurate. In the past the models only went out three days.

quote:

Originally posted by Georgeair:
Still not looking like huge impacts on NE, but that does illustrate how inaccurate their models and steering estimates can be days and weeks out. By their I mean the actual NHC, not the local panic-purveyors.

It did what they said it would, that’s good enough for me.

It's shaping up (i.e. still modeling error but now in the good enough accuracy timeline) to make landfall as a tropical storm not a hurricane. However, it's forecast to have a larger storm surge than a typical tropical storm. If it tracks up the Bay of Fundy, the storm surge could be magnified by the Bay and high tide.

Earlier in this thread, I mentioned some hype free weather sources. One that I mentioned is Houston focused (SpaceCity Weather) and it gained notoriety in Hurricane Harvey. The two meterologists, Matt Lanza and Eric Berger, that started SCW have spun off a sister site, The Eyewall, that focuses on all US hurricanes and tropical storms, and once again without the hype. Their update from this morning is where I snagged the intel on the Bay of Fundy, and it's presented as a possibility without hype.