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Soccer team lost in cave in Thailand. Login/Join 
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First of a handful I fear. This is unbelievably dangerous work. May God watch over the rescuers and the soccer team.


Nick



"I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder. I cannot conceive of any vital disaster happening to this vessel. Modern shipbuilding has gone beyond that."
-Capt. Edward Smith
 
Posts: 5795 | Location: NE Ohio | Registered: November 17, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by Ronin1069:
A former US Navy SEAL has warned of fatalities if the young Thai footballers have to dive their way out of the cave network.

Cade Courtley says such an attempt should be the last option for the trapped youngsters - because they have 'time on their hands'.

Courtley told CNN he had thousands of hours of experience operating in 'zero visibility' water as part of a special diving unit.

He questioned why the idea of diving the boys out was being considered when high powered pumps existed that were capable of draining a thousand gallons of water a minute.

He said: 'In my experience I would consider this stable and non life threatening which means we have the luxury of time - and with that time we are able to do a risk anaylsis on all of our options.

'I keep hearing the option of dive them out and I think that should be the very last option.'

The former US Navy SEAL added: 'I hate to say this but some of these kids are going to die in an effort to try and bring them out using dive equipment.'

Mr Courtly needs to stick to his knowledge of expertise, which is combat diving. A different animal entirely compared to salvage diving, rescue diving and very different to cave diving. His 'view points' don't add anything but throwing fuel onto the pyre of media headlines and self promotion.

The only reason why Thai Navy SEALs are on-scene and involved is they're the only organized government representative with any diving experience at all. Short of that, they're entirely reliant on outside (see Australia, UK, US and other countries) assistance. There's already reports of unaccounted for volunteers who were pumping water BACK INTO the cave areas, believing they were assisting. It's a headline grabbing shit show, that's attracting the well intentioned but, woefully skilled... SMH Red Face
 
Posts: 15056 | Location: Wine Country | Registered: September 20, 2000Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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An experienced diver has already passed away in the rescue attempt, Corsair.

I don’t know a damn thing about cave diving but having 13 kids who don’t even know how to swim attempt to do a a multi part dive, including places where barely a human can fit... it would be foolish to predict anything but casualties, no?
 
Posts: 2346 | Registered: October 26, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Staring back
from the abyss
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quote:
Originally posted by corsair:
He said: 'In my experience I would consider this stable and non life threatening which means we have the luxury of time -

...Unless it rains.

Roll Eyes


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"Great danger lies in the notion that we can reason with evil." Doug Patton.
 
Posts: 20569 | Location: Montana | Registered: November 01, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by reloader-1:
An experienced diver has already passed away in the rescue attempt, Corsair.

I don’t know a damn thing about cave diving but having 13 kids who don’t even know how to swim attempt to do a a multi part dive, including places where barely a human can fit... it would be foolish to predict anything but casualties, no?

I have no problems with blunt honesty however, he could've emphasized the gravity of the situation by explaining why cave diving is difficult, that all the assistance coming in needs to be clearly organized, and a clear hierarchy of decision making is established so that everyone understands what the plan is. From his couch in Colorado, not being on scene and his limited background (as it pertains to cave diving), he's really not in any position to say what they should or, shouldn't do but he can explain the complication and difficulties. He's not wrong, however his answer could've been more constructive and contributory.
 
Posts: 15056 | Location: Wine Country | Registered: September 20, 2000Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Drill Here, Drill Now
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quote:
Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
quote:
Originally posted by ulsterman:
quote:
Originally posted by ElToro:
Today I hear the monsoon season is in full force and they could be down there for 4 months ?! They were down for 11 days with no food and are malnourished and they need to get “healthy“ before they can try to dive out. The water that has filled up the cave is apparently very muddy and not easy to see through.

Digging a chimney hole from the top seems to be the easiest way out IMO.

Apparently it was a “thing” for young folks to go to the back of this cave (while dry) and write your name on the back wall. It started to rain while they were underground.


I believe the issue with a chimney is they will be drilling thru pure rock. When they rescued the Chilean miners, I think it took them about 3 weeks to drill down to them. I would imagine they would want to get started drilling even if it is a secondary scenario.


It goes well beyond just that. First they have to figure out where to drill, which isn't exactly easy. That cave is fairly deep below the ground and would be a small feat in itself just pinpointing it. And by that I mean digging precisely where you'll hit the cave at that depth.

Then there is of course the logistics of getting what is likely very heavy machinery to what I imagine is an area that is not exactly on the beaten path. You're talking about having to make a road just to get there through terrain that may be...err, rough.

Digging is not an option that will be accomplished in days or weeks. We're talking months I should think.
1/2 mile deep isn’t much if you’ve got good terrain above for getting in a drill rig. The logistics of getting in a drill rig can be a nightmare with low speeds and ability to crush culverts and crumble bridges.

As you said, hitting a cave isn’t easy but possible with accurate maps and subsurface data (eg is rock consistently sized in layers or are there discontinuities that’ll knock the drill head off course). I haven’t seen any stories mentioning the area has been 3D seismographed.

However, drilling isn’t my area of O&G expertise and would defer to BigBoreShooter.



Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity

DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.
 
Posts: 23662 | Location: Northern Suburbs of Houston | Registered: November 14, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
That rug really tied
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Originally posted by parabellum:
Ultimately, all will be rescued and the US-made movies will reach the entirely logical conclusion that White people are evil.


I mean clearly that is the only logical conclusion.


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Posts: 6705 | Location: Floriduh | Registered: October 16, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
half-genius,
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Originally posted by parabellum:
I figure at least three movies will come out of this- a Thai production, an HBO/Showtme/whatever pay channel, and an American network made-for-TV movie, most likely broadcast on ABC.

I mean, it's perfect. Drama with a group of kids- brown kids. Leaders of the group will emerge and there will be the scared, timid kids portrayed as well. In the last third of each of these films, one of the timid kids will be scuba'd out, and this will be the tense set-piece of the entire film.

Ultimately, all will be rescued and the US-made movies will reach the entirely logical conclusion that White people are evil.


Para, respectfully, you neglected to mention the part played by the CIA, President Trump and the NRA in the 'plots'.

tac
 
Posts: 11439 | Location: UK, OR, ONT | Registered: July 10, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Is pumping the cave out really a viable option? Everything I’ve read seems to not be putting too much emphasis on that approach.
 
Posts: 5082 | Location: Alaska | Registered: June 12, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by reloader-1:
An experienced diver has already passed away in the rescue attempt, Corsair.

I don’t know a damn thing about cave diving but having 13 kids who don’t even know how to swim attempt to do a a multi part dive, including places where barely a human can fit... it would be foolish to predict anything but casualties, no?


Ugh. He ran out of air on the way out.






Hedley Lamarr: Wait, wait, wait. I'm unarmed.
Bart: Alright, we'll settle this like men, with our fists.
Hedley Lamarr: Sorry, I just remembered . . . I am armed.
 
Posts: 6896 | Location: Atlanta | Registered: April 23, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Happily Retired
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Everything thing I know about cave diving is what I have read right here in this thread. It seems to me the best option for success is to dig them out from above.

One person is already dead. Damn. Frown



.....never marry a woman who is mean to your waitress.
 
Posts: 5134 | Location: Lake of the Ozarks, MO. | Registered: September 05, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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where's harry stamper when you need him?

--------------------------------------------


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Posts: 8940 | Location: Florida | Registered: September 20, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Just for the
hell of it
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quote:
Originally posted by Shaql:
quote:
Originally posted by reloader-1:
An experienced diver has already passed away in the rescue attempt, Corsair.

I don’t know a damn thing about cave diving but having 13 kids who don’t even know how to swim attempt to do a a multi part dive, including places where barely a human can fit... it would be foolish to predict anything but casualties, no?


Ugh. He ran out of air on the way out.



Did he run out of air when in an underwater section? Absolutely no reason for this.

The media need to stop referring to the gas they are breathing as Oxygen. The only time you breath 100% O2 when diving is for deco stops at 20' or less. Well, I guess the depths are shallow enough to breathe it during the dive but there are still other issues with that. These guys are breath air. Maybe a slight chance of Nitrox which has little extra O2 but they are not breathing 100% O2.

Very unlikely any of these Tai Navy Seals have any cave diving experience.


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Posts: 16450 | Registered: March 27, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Originally posted by comet24Big Grinid he run out of air when in an underwater section? Absolutely no reason for this.
.


Yep, yet this is number one killer of unexperienced divers going into caves.

Worse was the quote that his "buddy" found him. Where was the buddy as he burned his tank dry?
 
Posts: 2044 | Registered: September 19, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Prayer sent for all involved.

It sounds to me like they will try to bring them out underwater. At least that is what I am getting from the reports I have read.



"Practice like you want to play in the game"
 
Posts: 19710 | Registered: September 21, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Originally posted by Southflorida-law:
quote:
Originally posted by comet24Big Grinid he run out of air when in an underwater section? Absolutely no reason for this.
.


Yep, yet this is number one killer of unexperienced divers going into caves.

Worse was the quote that his "buddy" found him. Where was the buddy as he burned his tank dry?

He may have been ahead or, behind the diver where you can only move single-file, in near zero visibility state. In open water, there's no excuse for running out of air, obviously you're supposed to keep watch of your gauges but, you doubly need to keep track of time and your breath-rate. There's a lot of variables to why this happened...he was exhausted and burned through his bottle too fast, the bottle he got wasn't filled-up, he didn't calculate correctly, he tried to be a hero and stretch his supply.

The vast majority of these divers are relying on open-circuit systems, for an 11-hour round-trip, that's an insane amount of bottles needed to stage within this cave complex, and with limited space the chance of errors increases hence the need for topside organization and concise decision making. This death highlights not only the danger but, the need for everyone working, to stay within their given parameters.
 
Posts: 15056 | Location: Wine Country | Registered: September 20, 2000Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by corsair:
quote:
Originally posted by Southflorida-law:
quote:
Originally posted by comet24Big Grinid he run out of air when in an underwater section? Absolutely no reason for this.
.


Yep, yet this is number one killer of unexperienced divers going into caves.

Worse was the quote that his "buddy" found him. Where was the buddy as he burned his tank dry?

He may have been ahead or, behind the diver where you can only move single-file, in near zero visibility state. In open water, there's no excuse for running out of air, obviously you're supposed to keep watch of your gauges but, you doubly need to keep track of time and your breath-rate. There's a lot of variables to why this happened...he was exhausted and burned through his bottle too fast, the bottle he got wasn't filled-up, he didn't calculate correctly, he tried to be a hero and stretch his supply.

The vast majority of these divers are relying on open-circuit systems, for an 11-hour round-trip, that's an insane amount of bottles needed to stage within this cave complex, and with limited space the chance of errors increases hence the need for topside organization and concise decision making. This death highlights not only the danger but, the need for everyone working, to stay within their given parameters.


Isn't this a good indication that trying to bring those kids out via diving would almost surely result in multiple deaths?



“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
- John Adams
 
Posts: 29408 | Location: In the red hinterlands of Deep Blue VA | Registered: June 29, 2001Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Go ahead punk, make my day
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quote:
Originally posted by BamaJeepster:
Isn't this a good indication that trying to bring those kids out via diving would almost surely result in multiple deaths?
That's my opinion on the topic, but I'm sure they'll do what they think is the best on site.
 
Posts: 45798 | Registered: July 12, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by BamaJeepster:
quote:
Originally posted by corsair:
quote:
Originally posted by Southflorida-law:
quote:
Originally posted by comet24Big Grinid he run out of air when in an underwater section? Absolutely no reason for this.
.


Yep, yet this is number one killer of unexperienced divers going into caves.

Worse was the quote that his "buddy" found him. Where was the buddy as he burned his tank dry?

He may have been ahead or, behind the diver where you can only move single-file, in near zero visibility state. In open water, there's no excuse for running out of air, obviously you're supposed to keep watch of your gauges but, you doubly need to keep track of time and your breath-rate. There's a lot of variables to why this happened...he was exhausted and burned through his bottle too fast, the bottle he got wasn't filled-up, he didn't calculate correctly, he tried to be a hero and stretch his supply.

The vast majority of these divers are relying on open-circuit systems, for an 11-hour round-trip, that's an insane amount of bottles needed to stage within this cave complex, and with limited space the chance of errors increases hence the need for topside organization and concise decision making. This death highlights not only the danger but, the need for everyone working, to stay within their given parameters.


Isn't this a good indication that trying to bring those kids out via diving would almost surely result in multiple deaths?

I don't think there's any good options. Diving them out is the most direct option albeit a dangerous one. Any kind of digging or, material removal you run the risk of collapse, they're in a jungle environment where a lot of the ground is crumbly and soft. A lot of unknowns from afar.
 
Posts: 15056 | Location: Wine Country | Registered: September 20, 2000Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Originally posted by BamaJeepster:Isn't this a good indication that trying to bring those kids out via diving would almost surely result in multiple deaths?


Yes.
 
Posts: 2044 | Registered: September 19, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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