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I feel your pain Skull Leader. I'm at similar loss.

As a side note, I need to shoot my ARKK investment and put it out of its (my) misery. I've ridden that horse with no name into the dessert of continuing losses ...
 
Posts: 1482 | Location: Western WA | Registered: September 11, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
His Royal Hiney
Picture of Rey HRH
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by 1s1k:
quote:
Originally posted by Rey HRH:

Sorry, but I have come to realize this is pablum. If you deposited $100,000 in a bank account and you didn't make any other transactions but your next statement says your account has only $50,000. Would you accept an explanation that says, "Don't worry. It'll only be $50,000 if you withdraw it all now?"

That the asset may eventually recover is not a panacea. If you lose 50% of your investment, you have to earn a return of 100% just to be even. And, in the meantime, if you did earn 100% return and got back to your starting point, you missed out on the opportunity of earning 100% on the original investment had it not lost 50% in value.
That’s a completely different thing in my opinion. If you put $100k in the bank you are not expecting it to ever be worth more than that so you also have no expectation that it will ever be less than that.


With investing everyone who has been doing it for more than a couple of years realizes it will always go up and down in value so if you happen to look now and it’s down then it shouldn’t come as any shock.

If you have a balanced portfolio you have never had less money than you started with over the course of 5 years so unless you are old and will need that money within 5 years you are about as safe as you possibly could be while still growing your money.



I've been investing for over 3 decades and I have been educated in finance and investing. Went through the dot com bust in 2001 and the housing market crash in 2008. A balanced portfolio as traditionally and currently defined is not going to ensure you never have less money over the course of 5 years.

The idea that you only lock in losses if you sell is bogus because whether you sell or not, that's how much you have. If you try to buy on margin, it's going to be based on the current price of the shares you have.

I suspect that's the propaganda peddled to the masses so that they will passively hold the bag staying put while the smart money judiciously make their way to the nearest exit.



"It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual." Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning, 1946.
 
Posts: 20262 | Location: The Free State of Arizona - Ditat Deus | Registered: March 24, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
No More
Mr. Nice Guy
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Rey HRH:
I suspect that's the propaganda peddled to the masses so that they will passively hold the bag staying put while the smart money judiciously make their way to the nearest exit.


While that may be true to some extent, it is also true that most non-professionals react emotionally and lag the market badly. In the typical recovery phase, there are very few days which account for most of the rise. If you're out of the market on those few days, you don't benefit.

Most people have no strategy, no entry or exit points, no watch list awaiting opportunities.

People panic and capitulate on the way down. Then they sit on the sidelines in stunned inaction while the market rebounds. They indeed lock in their losses and miss the opportunity to gain it back.

Ideally, yes, one would see the down turn is going to continue, and sell off. Then one would recognize the bottom is happening, and start buying back in just before the rise. My observation is it is pure luck when someone does this, even the pros.

Most people do best investing every paycheck into quality funds, and forgetting about it.
 
Posts: 9858 | Location: On the mountain off the grid | Registered: February 25, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Rey HRH:
quote:
Originally posted by 1s1k:
quote:
Originally posted by Rey HRH:

Sorry, but I have come to realize this is pablum. If you deposited $100,000 in a bank account and you didn't make any other transactions but your next statement says your account has only $50,000. Would you accept an explanation that says, "Don't worry. It'll only be $50,000 if you withdraw it all now?"

That the asset may eventually recover is not a panacea. If you lose 50% of your investment, you have to earn a return of 100% just to be even. And, in the meantime, if you did earn 100% return and got back to your starting point, you missed out on the opportunity of earning 100% on the original investment had it not lost 50% in value.
That’s a completely different thing in my opinion. If you put $100k in the bank you are not expecting it to ever be worth more than that so you also have no expectation that it will ever be less than that.


With investing everyone who has been doing it for more than a couple of years realizes it will always go up and down in value so if you happen to look now and it’s down then it shouldn’t come as any shock.

If you have a balanced portfolio you have never had less money than you started with over the course of 5 years so unless you are old and will need that money within 5 years you are about as safe as you possibly could be while still growing your money.



I've been investing for over 3 decades and I have been educated in finance and investing. Went through the dot com bust in 2001 and the housing market crash in 2008. A balanced portfolio as traditionally and currently defined is not going to ensure you never have less money over the course of 5 years.

The idea that you only lock in losses if you sell is bogus because whether you sell or not, that's how much you have. If you try to buy on margin, it's going to be based on the current price of the shares you have.

I suspect that's the propaganda peddled to the masses so that they will passively hold the bag staying put while the smart money judiciously make their way to the nearest exit.
There’s never a guarantee in investing but if you put a certain amount in an investment plan with a traditional balance portfolio it would only have less money 5 years later one time in the last 75 years.

Why anyone would be scared when the rollercoaster is at the bottom and bail out is beyond me (excluding near retirement age). You have then essentially bought high and sold low which is the opposite of your goal.
 
Posts: 4062 | Registered: January 25, 2013Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Total portfolio down about 4.5% since Jan 1.

My investing approach has evolved over the last 15-20 years. My approach for the last 9 years has been:

1. Buy high quality companies that pay and grow their dividend
2. At a good price
3. Reinvest the dividends
4. Have well defined parameters for when to sell

The purpose of the majority of my investment dollars is to provide an income in retirement. I don’t concern myself with beating an index.

I know what I own, and why I own it.

A great quote I read recently about dividend investing- “If you buy a cow for milk, why do you care what the price of beef is?”
 
Posts: 2169 | Registered: April 14, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
always with a hat or sunscreen
Picture of bald1
posted Hide Post
Simply put....




Certifiable member of the gun toting, septuagenarian, bucket list workin', crazed retiree, bald is beautiful club!
USN (RET), COTEP #192
 
Posts: 16612 | Location: Black Hills of South Dakota | Registered: June 20, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
His Royal Hiney
Picture of Rey HRH
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by 1s1k:
quote:
Originally posted by Rey HRH:


I've been investing for over 3 decades and I have been educated in finance and investing. Went through the dot com bust in 2001 and the housing market crash in 2008. A balanced portfolio as traditionally and currently defined is not going to ensure you never have less money over the course of 5 years.

The idea that you only lock in losses if you sell is bogus because whether you sell or not, that's how much you have. If you try to buy on margin, it's going to be based on the current price of the shares you have.

I suspect that's the propaganda peddled to the masses so that they will passively hold the bag staying put while the smart money judiciously make their way to the nearest exit.
There’s never a guarantee in investing but if you put a certain amount in an investment plan with a traditional balance portfolio it would only have less money 5 years later one time in the last 75 years.

Why anyone would be scared when the rollercoaster is at the bottom and bail out is beyond me (excluding near retirement age). You have then essentially bought high and sold low which is the opposite of your goal.


I see nothing in your post that counters my disagreement against the saying that "the only time the money is actually gone is if you sell and lock in the loss."

Your statement presupposes that "anyone" would be scared at the bottom and bail out. You know why they would wait at the bottom and bail out? Because they've been sold the lie that "the only way the money is actually gone is if you sell and lock in the loss." They've gone so long down and they can't afford to go down anymore so they swallow their pride of believing the lie and sell. Even if they don't sell and stick with it until they recover assuming they have the time to wait, they've lost the potential upside from the recovery.

I'm not for timing the market; I'm just pointing out the placebo of the mantra "you only actually lose money if you sell." Sell or don't sell, you lost money. Period.



"It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual." Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning, 1946.
 
Posts: 20262 | Location: The Free State of Arizona - Ditat Deus | Registered: March 24, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
His Royal Hiney
Picture of Rey HRH
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Fly-Sig:
quote:
Originally posted by Rey HRH:
I suspect that's the propaganda peddled to the masses so that they will passively hold the bag staying put while the smart money judiciously make their way to the nearest exit.


While that may be true to some extent, it is also true that most non-professionals react emotionally and lag the market badly. In the typical recovery phase, there are very few days which account for most of the rise. If you're out of the market on those few days, you don't benefit.

Most people have no strategy, no entry or exit points, no watch list awaiting opportunities.

People panic and capitulate on the way down. Then they sit on the sidelines in stunned inaction while the market rebounds. They indeed lock in their losses and miss the opportunity to gain it back.

Ideally, yes, one would see the down turn is going to continue, and sell off. Then one would recognize the bottom is happening, and start buying back in just before the rise. My observation is it is pure luck when someone does this, even the pros.

Most people do best investing every paycheck into quality funds, and forgetting about it.


It depends on where you are in your investing horizon. If you're early and retirement is far off, you're correct in that you should simply invest with every pay check and forget about it. But if you're near retirement or are in retirement, you need to better manage your portfolio because 1) you'll won't have much income to add to your retirement savings, 2) you don't have the advantage of time, and 3) because you'll be presumably taking out of your retirement fund when you're retired, any withdrawals during any downturns have the double effect of reducing your portfolio - the money you withdraw won't be there to grow and you've withdrawn deflated money.



"It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual." Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning, 1946.
 
Posts: 20262 | Location: The Free State of Arizona - Ditat Deus | Registered: March 24, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Get rid of debt, all of it, as well as you can. ASAP.
 
Posts: 830 | Location: FL | Registered: September 19, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of SigSentry
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I'd add gold and primarily silver to the list. Wink

 
Posts: 3663 | Registered: May 30, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by 2PAK:
I feel your pain Skull Leader. I'm at similar loss.

As a side note, I need to shoot my ARKK investment and put it out of its (my) misery. I've ridden that horse with no name into the dessert of continuing losses ...


Ah yes, the amazing ARK funds. What an incredible journey it was over the past few years. But this year, there is no fool like an old fool...

I only held on to the ARKF shares which are now down 65% over the past year. So they outperformed Draft Kings, which is down 71%.

I am not buying any more, but I am not selling them either. They remain on my brokerage statement to remind me that not all stocks are a good investment. I knew that, but sometimes I still need a reminder.


----------------------------------------------------
Dances with Crabgrass
 
Posts: 2183 | Location: East Virginia | Registered: October 12, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
His Royal Hiney
Picture of Rey HRH
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Hay2bale:

Ah yes, the amazing ARK funds. What an incredible journey it was over the past few years. But this year, there is no fool like an old fool...

I only held on to the ARKF shares which are now down 65% over the past year. So they outperformed Draft Kings, which is down 71%.

I am not buying any more, but I am not selling them either. They remain on my brokerage statement to remind me that not all stocks are a good investment. I knew that, but sometimes I still need a reminder.


There's a security on my IRA statement that I can't get rid of. I called and my brokerage said they aren't able to even journal it out. CANO PETROLEUM I bought 600 shares at $8.5215 each for a total of $5,112.95 on Jun 5, 2006. Current Market Price: $0.00. It's a relatively small amount but it reminds me of all the other losses I've taken through my own stupidity and following advice I even paid for.



"It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual." Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning, 1946.
 
Posts: 20262 | Location: The Free State of Arizona - Ditat Deus | Registered: March 24, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by stkfox:
Get rid of debt, all of it, as well as you can. ASAP.
For sure. It’s amazing how quick your money piles up when you aren’t sending it to a bunch of loan payments.

quote:
Originally posted by Rey HRH:

There's a security on my IRA statement that I can't get rid of. I called and my brokerage said they aren't able to even journal it out. CANO PETROLEUM I bought 600 shares at $8.5215 each for a total of $5,112.95 on Jun 5, 2006. Current Market Price: $0.00. It's a relatively small amount but it reminds me of all the other losses I've taken through my own stupidity and following advice I even paid for.
That still hurts. It’s also why after my first year or two of investing I have never bought any individual stocks.
 
Posts: 4062 | Registered: January 25, 2013Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Alienator
Picture of SIG4EVA
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by stkfox:
Get rid of debt, all of it, as well as you can. ASAP.


Excellent advice! Your income is your greatest wealth building tool. Debt has become so innocuous that people think it's normal.


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Psalm 118:24 "This is the day which the Lord hath made; we will rejoice and be glad in it"
 
Posts: 7204 | Location: NC | Registered: March 16, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Damn. I might have to unretire for a couple years.
 
Posts: 1414 | Location: Mason, Ohio | Registered: September 16, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
I Deal In Lead
Picture of Flash-LB
posted Hide Post
Incredibly bad advise coming out here.

Oh well, I'll leave this thread and you guys can continue your gloom and doom and take losses at your leisure.
 
Posts: 10626 | Location: Gilbert Arizona | Registered: March 21, 2013Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Fire begets Fire
Picture of SIGnified
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What’s the chance that Fidelity (or Vanguard) is the new Lehman Brothers?





"Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty."
~Robert A. Heinlein
 
Posts: 26758 | Location: dughouse | Registered: February 04, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Shall Not Be Infringed
Picture of nhracecraft
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^^^Probably ZERO, but I'd be interested to know why you're asking the question...


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Posts: 9659 | Location: New Hampshire | Registered: October 29, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
His Royal Hiney
Picture of Rey HRH
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by SIGnified:
What’s the chance that Fidelity (or Vanguard) is the new Lehman Brothers?


They're a far cry from Lehman Brothers. The downfall of Lehman was getting into financing subprime mortgages thinking they were going to make easy money off the higher interest rates paid by subprime mortgage borrowers.

Vanguard and Fidelity just manages ETFs and mutual funds which are just pass through models. They'll hurt if the stock market crashes as the basis of their earnings are a percentage of the holdings. But they won't owe more than what what they have. At worse, their cost percentage will go up, I suppose, in order to pay for their admin expenses.



"It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual." Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning, 1946.
 
Posts: 20262 | Location: The Free State of Arizona - Ditat Deus | Registered: March 24, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Fire begets Fire
Picture of SIGnified
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by nhracecraft:
^^^Probably ZERO, but I'd be interested to know why you're asking the question...



Everybody thought Lehman was impervious and the gold standard. I have an “uncle” who lost well over $3 million there/then.

I have a bunch of money in Fidelity that I don’t wanna go the same way. Some may believe that equities can’t go to zero but apparently they didn’t watch the great depression.





"Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty."
~Robert A. Heinlein
 
Posts: 26758 | Location: dughouse | Registered: February 04, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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