Week 4 (all times Central Time Zone):
Friday:

IA at MN at 6:00 on FS1 - The Hawkeyes head into this unexpected battle of 1-2s as 3.5 point favorites. The Gophers have a 7 ppg offensive advantage, but the Hawkeyes have an impressive 19 ppg defensive advantage. However, Iowa's defense struggled against the run versus Purdue and NWU and MN's rushing attack is more impressive. The Gophers pull off the upset.
Saturday:

#10 IU at MSU at 11:00 on ABC - The undefeated Hosers head into this game as 7 point favorites. Pretty even on total offensive yardage, but IU converts to more points and their defense gives up less points. IU wins and covers.

IL at Rutgers at 11:00 on BTN - I don't think I've posted this before in a Big Ten game, Rutgers is 7 point favorites. Both teams equally lousy on defense and pretty even on total offensive yardage, but Rutgers converts that to 13 more ppg. Rutgers wins and covers.

PSU at NE at 11:00 on FS1 - This surprising match-up on zero win teams has the Nittany Lions as 3.5 point favorites. Learned today why their projecting starting RB, Journey Brown, hadn't played all season which was he contracted COVID and during medical tests doctors discovered a heart abnormality (not COVID related) requiring him to give up football. Pretty even on total yardage (PSU better at pasing and NE better at rushing) and lousiness of defense, but PSU scores more points per game. I'm going with PSU to win and cover.

#13 WI at UofM at 6:30 on ABC - These two 1 win teams face off under the Big House's lights and the Badgers are 4.5 point favorites. Comparing stats is pretty useless since WI only played 1 game this season. The wildcard is that WI's starting QB is still in Covid protocal and needs medical clearance to play on Saturday. If he plays, they beat UofM like redheaded step children. If he doesn't play, they still win but smaller margin. Regardless, WI wins and covers.

#23 NWU at Purdue at 4:00 on BTN - This battle of the undefeated teams in the West has the Wildcats favored by 3.0 points. Both teams even on PPG, but Purdue has the edge on yards per game. The big differentiator is that NWU has a 10 ppg edge on defense. While NWU was having to come from behind to beat NE, Purdue had a off week last week so I'm going with the fresh team (to be fair, I'm just looking for a reason to pick Purdue). Spoilermakers rise again and pull off the upset.

tOSU & MD - As TMats posted, MD's Covid spike has caused this game to be cancelled.

These are my wild assed guesses, what are yours?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: tatortodd,

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Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity

DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.

I predict that who ever plays QB for Wisconsin, the Wolverines will lose the game. Aside from the team behaving like each game is a clown show, they have a team that is depleted due to injuries in the offensive line, the defense, the defensive backs are still playing like they were in middle school.

Hey Purdue fans - Not sure what happened, but now the game is at 4:00 PM. It's still on BTN.

I'll update my Thursday post too (no, I won't fix my horribly wrong MN prediction ).

It says 5pm ET on espn.

Now that was a sweet 4th and short! Play action for a 40-yard TD pass to the TE. Short pass so the it was 35 YAK.

quote:

Originally posted by Shaql:
It says 5pm ET on espn.

I always post in Central Time and state that every week.

5 min into the 2nd qtr, WI is up 28-0 in the Big House. That last touchdown, the UofM D looked they were on roller skates.

I was impressed with the Badgers stopping the Wolverines at the 18” line.

Few plays later, I think they caught a break, as I thought Davis fumbled, but they ruled it an incompletion instead.

I’m a Buckeyes fan, but TTUN shouldn’t keep Khaki Master another day.

Week 4 Wrap-up:

IA at MN at 6:00 on FS1 - I was very, very wrong about the Gophers pulling off the upset. The Hawkeyes lead at the end of every quarter and MN's only score was garbage time (14 seconds left). One of the most telling stats is MN's D had 0 sacks, 1 hurry, and 0 tackles for a loss. If you had told me that IA's QB ended the game 9 for 18 with 111 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, and a 36.2 QB rating I would have thought they had gotten their butt kicked since they haven't run well all year (MSU doesn't count).

#10 IU at MSU at 11:00 on ABC - As predicted, IU won and covered. IU was up 24 to zip and half and turned off the jets. IU is having an amazing season and I'm looking forward to next week's match-up with tOSU.

IL at Rutgers at 11:00 on BTN - I was wrong on Rutgers winning and covering. I was out motorcycling and when I stopped for lunch I saw that Rutgers was leading 20-10 midway through the 3rd. I was pretty shocked to learn that IL pulled off the comeback and won 23-20. The difference was Rutgers threw 3 INTs and IL converted to 2 field goals (actually missed the field goal off the 3rd INT).

PSU at NE at 11:00 on FS1 - I'm happily wrong about PSU winning and covering. NE jumped out of gates with a 1st drive TD and went into half leading 27-6. Not sure what happened in the 2nd half as they let PSU back in the game. In fact, PSU was down 30-23 late in the 4th and had driven to NE's 9 yard line when NE stuffed their 4th down attempt which sealed the win.

#13 WI at UofM at 6:30 on ABC - As predicted, WI won and covered. WI owned the line of scrimmage on both O and D. UofM's football program is once again resembling the disaster that it was during the RichRod era.

#23 NWU at Purdue at 4:00 on BTN - I'm disappointed that I was wrong on Purdue pulling off the upset. If you told me 24 hours ago that O'Connell would be 28 for 51 with 263 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs I would've guessed we won handily. The most telling stat was NWU only averaged 2 ypc but it was 20x better than Purdue's rushing "attack."

Kudos:

IA O-line: The big guys paved the way for 235 yards rushing (6.7 ypc), 4 TDs, and gave up 0 sacks.

IA Defense: they held Ibrahim to 0 TDs on 144 yards rushing (a huge feat as he is excellent), forced 2 INTs, 4 sacks, and 5 tackles for a loss. They pitched a shutout for 59 minutes and 46 seconds.

IA RB Goodsen: 20 carries for 142 yards and 2 TDs.

IU: Dominating performance on both sides of the ball.

IL QB Williams: The freshman's first start and lead them to a comeback win. Not much of a passer (7/18 for 104) but threw 0 INTs (i.e. he didn't hurt them). He really shined running the ball 192 yards for 1 TD and 6.2 ypc. Only negative is he put the ball on the ground twice and one was a turnover.

IL Defense: 3 clutch INTs to put the team in a postion to win.

NE QB McCaffrey: The freshman was 13 for 21 for 152 and a TD (INT too), and on the ground was leading rusher with 67 yards and a TD (5.2 ypc).

WI o-line: The hogs paved the way for 341 yards rushing, 6.7 ypc, and 5 rushing TDs. They didn't pass often but only gave up 1 sack and 0 hurries which gave Mertz time to toss 2 TDs.

WI D: Utter domination of the line of scrimmage. Held the UofM ground "attack" to 2.5 ypc, 47 yds, 0 TDs, and 5 tackles for loss. The d-backs had 2 INTs in UofM territory leaving the offense a short field (33 yards and 14 yards) which they converted to 2 TDs.

WI QB Mertz: Young man's 2nd career start was another huge program win. 12 for 22, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 0 fumbles. Pretty impressive for a guy with COVID a few weeks back.

NWU WR Chiaokhiao-Bowman: The senior had the best game of his career. 8 receptions for 86 yards and 3 TDs.

NWU D: The front 7 owned the line of scrimmage and shutdown Purdue's rushing. They also had a lot of pressure (e.g. 3 sacks) on O'Connell including the 4th quarter game winner to end Purdue's hopes. To be fair, most of the credit for the last sack goes to the DBs who had everyone so well covered that O'Connell went through all of his progressions and was resorting to running (tackled for loss so it was a sack).

NWU QB Ramsey: He wasn't flashy except for 2 perfect passes to Chiaokhiao-Bowman in the end zone (3rd TD pass was 100% YAK). He ended the day 23 for 36 for 3 TDs (1 INT).

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Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity

DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.

Week 5:
Friday:

Purdue @ MN at 6:30 on BTN - My Boilermakers are 1.5 point favorites. The good news for Purdue fans is that Rondale Moore is dressed and warming up, but the bad news is our starting QB O'Connell is banged up and Plummer will be starting at QB. MN has to decide whether to double team Rondale Moore or David Bell which is going to be fun to watch. As far as the stats MN scores more points per game, and Purdue has the much better passing attack and MN has the much better rushing attack. On defense, the Boilermakers have a 12 ppg advantage. As far as common opponents, Purdue beat IA and MN got smoked by them, and Purdue beat IL by 7 and MN scorched them. Purdue wins and covers.
Saturday:

#9 IU @ #3 tOSU at 11:00 on Fox - The Buckeyes are 20.5 point favorites. tOSU is better at every stat and likely better at every position. IU's high flying season crashes back to earth, and tOSU wins and covers. Also, Fields will add to his Heisman reel in this top 10 match-up.

IL @ NE at 11:00 on BTN - The Cornhuskers are 16 point favorites. Both teams are equally horrible on offense and defense. I think McCaffrey will be the difference maker and the offense will score more than their defense gives up. NE wins but fails to cover.

#10 WI @ #19 NWU at 2:30 on ABC - The Badgers are 7.5 point favorites. The other top 20 match-up of Big Ten undefeated teams. WI is better in every statistic, but they have a horrible record playing on the road at NWU. The Badgers put their road woes behind them, and they win and cover.

#IA @ PSU at 2:30 on BTN - The Hawkeyes are 2 point favorites. Kirk Ferentz has 99 Big Ten wins going into this game and they are slightly better on offense and vastly superior on defense. Ferentz gets his 100th Big Ten win, IA covers the spread, and PSU ends up 0-5.

UofM @ Rutgers at 6:30 on BTN - The Wolverines are 12 point favorites. What dumbass made this toilet bowl match up the prime time Saturday Big Ten game? Rutgers pulls off the upset and Harbaugh is unemployed by Monday.
Canceled:

MSU @ MD

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Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity

DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.

I don't think I have ever been excited to see Ohio State play Indiana, but 2020 is a strange year. Go Bucks!!!!

Sorry, Todd, that was a horrible call

quote:

Originally posted by TMats:
Sorry, Todd, that was a horrible call

I'm pissed.

However, we should not have been in that position. We had a short FG blocked at the end of the 2nd and our FG kicker missed a 33 yarder.

quote:

Originally posted by tatortodd:

quote:

Originally posted by TMats:
Sorry, Todd, that was a horrible call

I'm pissed.

However, we should not have been in that position. We had a short FG blocked at the end of the 2nd and our FG kicker missed a 33 yarder.

Well, to be honest, that wasn’t really a block, the kicker essentially drilled his O-line in the back. The fourth quarter miss just proved he’s not a good kicker.

quote:

Originally posted by TMats:
Well, to be honest, that wasn’t really a block, the kicker essentially drilled his O-line in the back. The fourth quarter miss just proved he’s not a good kicker.

To be fair, he had 0 misses going into the game, and was 13-16 last year (1 miss 50+, 1 miss 40-49, and 1 miss 30-39). Also, he is playing despite a shoulder injury and wasn't allowed to do kick-offs.

A thoroughly embarrassing performance by Nebraska against Illinois. I especially hate it because the “Frost isn’t the guy” crowd will be out in force. Still, they were inexplicably inept.

I’m a huge Buckeye fan, but I think Indiana deserves a ton of credit and is the real deal this year. Had it not been home field for the Bucks, I think things could have been different, not that they almost weren’t anyways. Kudos to Indiana for a solid game, OSU struggled but it doesn’t detract from Indiana

Wow! NWU's defense shutdown WI's offense.

Rutgers just tied it up with 27 seconds left.

Week 5:

Purdue @ MN at 6:30 on BTN - I was wrong on Purdue winning and covering. This game had practically no defense as both teams punted once in 1st half, and it was 6:16 in 4th quarter before another defensive stop (Purdue destroyed MN's 4th and 1). Purdue missed a 33 yard FG. Purdue's defense stepped up next series and forced a punt. Then the infamous offensive pass interference call took away Purdue's game winning TD. Honorable mention goes to Jack Plummer for his incredible back-up performance of 35 completions for 367 yards and 3 TDs (should've been 4). Also, it was great to see Rondale Moore back catching and rushing the ball.

#9 IU @ #3 tOSU at 11:00 on Fox - I was correct on tOSU winning but wrong on covering. Also, wrong on Fields adding to his Heisman reel (young man came back down to earth and threw 3 INTs and couldn't make anything happen most of the 2nd half). It was a tale of halves where tOSU looked like the #3 team in the country in the first half and looked like a cellar dweller in the 2nd half. After a slow start the Buckeyes dominated the 1st half and went into halftime 28-7. Thought it was going to turn into a blowout when the Buckeyes marched down the field on the 1st drive to score a TD in under 3 minutes. Then, tOSU D decided to quit covering and tackling Fryfogle who torched them for 3 TDs (shortest was 33 yards). IU played amazing defense the remainder of the game and if it weren't for throwing a pick 6 this one could've went to OT. Honorable mention goes to Penix Jr (27 completions for 491 yards and 5 TDs) and Fryfogle (7 receptions for 218 yards and 3 TDs).

IL @ NE at 11:00 on BTN - I was wrong on NE winning but correct on failing to cover. I didn't see this game (watching tOSU) but they kept interrupting to show IL highlights. NE threw 3 INTs and fumbled twice which IL turned into 2 TDs and a FG. IL is a horrible passing team and this was their QB's first game back from COVID, but they still managed 205 yards passing and a TD. IL even had 2 rushers get more than 100 yards.

#10 WI @ #19 NWU at 2:30 on ABC - I was wrong on the Badgers winnng and covering. NWU's excellent defense made Mertz look like a freshman QB who had only previously played in 2 games. Best defensive game of the weekend, but frankly a little boring (I took a 3rd quarter nap and woke up to same score).

#IA @ PSU at 2:30 on BTN - As predicted IA won and covered which meant PSU ends up 0-5. I didn't see any of this since I was watching NWU, but Ferentz has really turned this team around from its 0-2 start (now 3-2).

UofM @ Rutgers at 6:30 on BTN - I was really, really close on my prediction of Rutgers pulling off the upset and Harbaugh getting fired. Rutgers was leading 17-0 when Harbaugh made the key decision to bench Milton and bring in McNamara. 1st drive as QB, McNamara provided the immediate spark by throwing a 46 yard TD. Rutgers went into half leading 17-7. UofM special teams returned the 2nd half kick-off for a TD and it was now 17-14. It was a back and forth game from this point forward. Rutgers made an amazing 4th quarter drive to tie the game with 27 seconds and send it into OT. The 1st OT, UofM missed their FG and all Rutgers had to do was kick a FG to win but they missed. They traded TDs in the 2nd OT. In the 3rd OT, UofM scored a TD (missed 2 point conversion which is only option in 3rd OT), but Rutgers was unable to score a TD. Honorable mention goes to Rutgers' QB Vedral who had 29 completions for 381 yards and 3 TDs (1 INT). Schiano is on the verge of turning this program around (his first coaching stint at Rutgers he had them ranked as high as #7).

Cheers:

MN QB Morgan - 1st game in 2020 where he looked like he did last season. 15 completions for 264 yards. No passing TDs but all of his passing set up the 5 short yardage rushing TDs (6 yards or less).

MN RB Ibrahim - He racked up another 100 yard game (102) and punched in 3 short TD runs.

IL offensive line - paved the way for 285 yards rushing, 5.5 ypc, and 4 rushing TDs. Only gave up 1 sack and 2 hurries which gave their QB time for 205 yards passing and a TD

NWU Defense - They did not allow WI to have a single play in the red zone the entire game (only score was 49 yard pass). They had intense pass rush with 3 sacks and 7 hurries which lead to 3 INTs. Speaking of turnovers, they also forced 2 fumbles. After the 1st quarter, they held WI scoreless the remaining 3 quarters.

NWU QB Ramsey - 23 completions for 203 yards and 2 TDs.

IA coach Kirk Ferentz - earned his 100th Big Ten win. That is rarified air as he joins legends Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler.

IA offensive line - the hogs cleared the way for 175 yards rushing and 4 rushing TDs.

IA RB Sargent - 101 yards rushing, 6.7 ypc, and 2 TDs.

IA Defense - 2 INTs including a pick 6, held PSU to 1.8 ypc, forced 2 fumbles, 5 sacks.

UofM QB McNamara - 27 completions for 260 yards and 4 TDs. He even had a passing TD. Harbaugh is a fool if McNamara isn't his starting QB.

UofM RB Haskins - 109 yards rushing for 1 TD. Doesn't sound like much, but UofM's O-line is horrible and most of his yards were after initial contact.

Jeers:

Officials in Purdue and MN game. I watched a metric shit ton of Big Ten football this weekend and I never saw that ticky tack incidental contact called as pass interference on either side of the ball. Bullshit to change the outcome of the game with a call like this.

tOSU's pass defense - gave up 491 yards passing and 5 passing TDs. That needs to get fixed PDQ if they want to have any chance to make the playoffs and do well there.

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Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity

DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.