I expect another Reoublican sweep. Stock market is at record highs, we have peace in the Middle East, our borders are now safe, etc. What other president can you think of that accomplished as much as Trump in one year?

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Originally posted by Carpentermaass84:
I expect another Reoublican sweep. Stock market is at record highs, we have peace in the Middle East, our borders are now safe, etc. What other president can you think of that accomplished as much as Trump in one year?

Housing prices and interest rates have to come down. Gen Z needs to get good jobs like previous generations as a result of limiting H1-B visas. The tariff issue needs to be resolved. As I said earlier, A.I. is fueling a ton of investment now, and making up for softness in other places.

Young men voted for Trump by a landslide, but they are still being shut out of jobs due to DEI and immigration. Trump needs to instruct DoJ to enforce civil rights and EEOC for ALL Americans, and prosecute companies that discriminate against white men.

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I haven’t quite broken it to him yet, but he’s going to campaign like it’s 2024 again.”

I love you, Suzie Wiles!!
"I haven't broken it to him yet!" Waaahaaahaaa

We know who's in charge.
BTW she needs to take his phone away for a week.

Housing prices are what the market says there are. Current interest rates are historical low.
The argument to the contrary is bullshit.

^^ Mortgage rates have DOUBLED in the last four years! Looking at the same delta that occurred over the last four years, they are only at historical lows when compared to interest rates from the mid to late '80s! Interest rates are higher now than they've been for over TWENTY years!

Current housing prices are such that nobody that doesn't already own a house can afford to buy one! You don't know what you're talking about!

But 2.5% 30 yr fixed rates were just not going to last forever. We all knew it was too good to be true. You can't really hold it against anyone that rates eventually returned to historical norms. My first house was 6% around 1996 and no one though that was out of line back then. So you can't get to less than half that and think it's an outrage when it goes back up.

I agree that interest rates aren’t ridiculous by historical norms but I also believe that they’re higher than they should be. I think the target for a 30 year fixed should be right around 5.75 - 6.00% right now, so maybe a half point lower. I also don’t think it’s the mortgage rates that are hurting as much as auto loan rates and unsecured loan rates.

I think the biggest gains for cost reduction will come through reduced and scaled back regulations. That will also take some time though as auto manufacturers for example come down from their sugar highs and realize that consumers aren’t willing to give them as much profit as they’ve been getting the last few years. The auto industry could do quite well from taking advantage of reduced CAFE standards and corresponding reductions in manufacturing expensive and less reliable forced induction engines. They could also do much to stimulate revenue, albeit at the cost of per unit profit margin, by manufacturing more reduced option package vehicles. I think a lot of people that have been holding out on a new vehicle purchase could get excited about buying a new vehicle if prices decreased a good 10-15% across the board. That is a goal that’s absolutely achievable with reduced costs from reduced regulations, possibly coupled with a slight per unit haircut on margin.

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Originally posted by nhracecraft:

Mortgage rates have DOUBLED in the last four years! Looking at the same delta that occurred over the last four years, they are only at historical lows when compared to interest rates from the mid to late '80s!

You can't compare anything to the economic indicators from 4-5 years ago. That was the "COVID economy" where everything was skewed because first the gov't put the economy in freefall by shutting everything down. Then dropped interest rates to basically zero and printed trillions of dollars to get it going again. Which in turn caused massive inflation and thus higher interest rates. Things are the way that they are for valid reasons.

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Originally posted by Rick Lee:
But 2.5% 30 yr fixed rates were just not going to last forever. We all knew it was too good to be true. You can't really hold it against anyone that rates eventually returned to historical norms. My first house was 6% around 1996 and no one though that was out of line back then. So you can't get to less than half that and think it's an outrage when it goes back up.

That argument 'might' be something one could swallow, except that since 1996 the Median Home Price has increased by over 375%. And here we are...Nobody that doesn't already own a house can afford to buy one!

And one could argue that lower interest rates have driven home prices so high because lower rates allow one to afford more house and/or for sellers to command higher prices. Affordability is tied to a lot more than interest rates, like (slow) wage growth, (increasing) property taxes and (skyrocketing) homeowners insurance rates in certain areas.

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Originally posted by nhracecraft:
.Nobody that doesn't already own a house can afford to buy one!

Then the prices will come down. But right now house are still selling at a decent clip.
Certain segments that are not selling prices will adjust. That is how it works.

Prices on existing houses are high simply because of the high cost of building new.

They will stay high unless the cost to build new (materials and labor) drops, which I don't see happening in the near future unless interest goes way up. Price of building a new 2,000 sq ft home with 2 car garage is pushing $600,000 plus the lot cost.

I know Sigforum tends to skew older, but the disconnect with actual economic issues faced by the working age population, particularly those with less than 20 years of experience is lacking.

It’s a very, very tough economy right now for those people. Birth rates are plunging for a variety of reasons, but look at the economic outlook, prospects, home buying capacity for that portion of the population and you might see the issue.

Back in the early 80's, I was a young kid that would sometimes get to go to grandma's house with my dad on Mondays. That was the day they met to discuss business. My family on that side were in the residential development business, and built many large subdivisions throughout the St. Louis metro area starting in the late 40s.

One of the things that I picked up on was my grandmother's bank accounts which were earning 10% at the time. I remember thinking that if somebody had $1 million in the bank, making $100K a year in interest (in the 1980s) would support a nice lifestyle.

I remember asking my father about it, and he explained that the reason you could get 10% on a savings account was because people were paying 18% for a mortgage. That obviously impacted the family business. His opinion was that you could successfully have a high interest rate with a low home cost, or a high home cost with a low interest rate. However, having high home costs with high interest rates was unsustainable.

He passed in 1992, but I'm watching the housing market with interest to see if he was right.

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Originally posted by ridewv:
Prices on existing houses are high simply because of the high cost of building new.

They will stay high unless the cost to build new (materials and labor) drops, which I don't see happening in the near future unless interest goes way up. Price of building a new 2,000 sq ft home with 2 car garage is pushing $600,000 plus the lot cost.

You can buy a new house a lot bigger than that for a lot less where I live in Indiana. You can buy existing homes for a lot less than new construction cost in many areas. But yes this is a factor.

COVID distorted prices due to: fewer people relocating for jobs causing lower supply of available houses, remote workers from expensive areas moving to lower cost of living areas who were less price sensitive, cost of materials/labor for new construction, the massive influx of illegals that need housing, and the COVID relief grift that flooded the economy with money.

Not all illegals are poor, many people with reasonable means still entered illegally or overstayed tourist visas, filed asylum claims that, and were almost universally approved to stay under "parole" until their hearings. A few working immigrants then pool their money and buy or rent a house. Hispanics have been doing this for a long time, but now we have Nigerians and Sikh's and others doing the same thing.

Private equity had some effect, but most analyses I've seen have do not find this was a primary driver. In the coastal cities, land use restrictions, regulations, and permitting are the primary factors. Look at CA where no one has been able to rebuild after the fires.

Median housing costs too much relative to median income, so people can't buy. Prices will come down as sellers accept that the COVID price hike was temporary. If you chart housing values it looks like 2008 again. As values fall, over-leveraged private equity will dump the houses they have and drive prices even lower.

reloader1. I bought my first house for $32k. I was making $8 an hour at that time. I wonder how that equates to buying a $450k house making $48 and hour today? Hmmmm.

Drove an old car (1). No boats, Rv, atv's, jet ski's, etc. Little debt. Virtually everything I owned was paid for then.

A huge reason that many cannot afford a home in any generation is that they are already strapped in debt.
Buying a home is a huge commitment. Always has been. Thinking you can do by getting a job to pay for it while it is already funding a lifestyle you cannot afford is not going to work. Blaming employers for that is in vogue.

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Originally posted by reloader-1:
I know Sigforum tends to skew older, but the disconnect with actual economic issues faced by the working age population, particularly those with less than 20 years of experience is lacking.

It’s a very, very tough economy right now for those people. Birth rates are plunging for a variety of reasons, but look at the economic outlook, prospects, home buying capacity for that portion of the population and you might see the issue.

Since 2020, Fortune 500 has hired 95% women and minorities and 5% white men. Think about that. They have been trying to adjust their "diversity" to reach "population representation" as soon as possible, so that means not hiring white men until they reach the goal. It also means fewer promotions for existing white male employees. And it's not a secret, they basically admit to discrimination but no one enforces Equal Opportunity for white guys. Maybe Trump will, which would be a good start.

Corporations are not increasing wages. The asshole CFO at my company when asked said "we didn't reduce raises when inflation was low so we are not increasing them when inflation is high". Except 3% a year WAS normalized to the two decades of low inflation from we had in the beginning of this century. To avoid wage increases they have been hiring way too many H-1B's and offshoring everything they can. Remote workers in India and China (in company offices, not consultants) are doing a lot more work than before.

Lefty Sig, so you are saying "all the FF500 companies" have hired 95% percent of women in all their hiring over the last 5 years? We know that is not true. There is no way that is the case. Saying such just means the point you are trying to make cannot be valid.

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Originally posted by old rugged cross:
Lefty Sig, so you are saying "all the FF500 companies" have hired 95% percent of women in all their hiring over the last 5 years? We know that is not true. There is no way that is the case. Saying such just means the point you are trying to make cannot be valid.

I'm reading 95% women and minorities.
Minorities could be both women and men, and all the other "genders" I imagine...

Thanks I missed the minorities. But saying "all" FF500 companies only hired 5% of white males cannot be true either. I am sure some did. But all, no way.