Navy is sortieing all sea-capable ships from Norfolk and Little Creek tomorrow. What a gigantic ass-pain. Helluva boat parade heading outbound.

quote:

Originally posted by smlsig:
I have been dealing with hurricanes since I lived on Galveston Island back in '79.

We currently have a beach house on Hatteras Island that is rented out this week. I will be contacting the tenants reminding them to pay attention to Dare County's EM which is pretty good.
Of course that means that we'll have to go down there (a 7 hour drive) and board up the house...

Fun, fun, fun!

It is a long drive from south central Va.

quote:

Originally posted by jigray3:

quote:

Originally posted by sdy:
saw this web site at Conservative Treehouse

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=34.9;-77.9;4&l=rain-3h

very cool

At the bottom of the page, you can step through the forecast hour by hour using the "Next" button in lower right corner.

As you step thru, you see the hurricane approaching the east coast.

Then it lingers over NC and VA coast for several days.

Friday thru Monday could be ugly.

Thanks for posting, this looks pretty ugly. They have the track significantly farther north than NOAA, though. I've got a sailboat in the Chesapeake, so I'm likely gong to have to pull her out regardless. Hope this thing doesn't just park over us.

Ventusky seems to have spotty reviews from what I’ve seen, and like any other source, accuracy seems poorer the further out the prediction. I wouldn’t just bank on it... if I had a local stake in the venture, I’d consult several different sources and make any decision closer to the event.

The NHC is the official source for the public. Utility companies and oil companies have their own weather services that cater to them. For example they need to know the precise times to evacuate offshore workers in the Gulf and the exact speed and time of the approaching storm. The utility companies have to get restoration crews in place for restoration of power. Lots of these other sites provide frankly more entertainment than anything else. It is kind of like the stock market predict often and you will be right once in a while.
The NHC works with NOAA and the Air Force Reserve to put the latest forecast together. Just a few short years ago, there was only three day forecasting available to the public. It is now five days.

11 pm NOAA

This message has been edited. Last edited by: sdy,

Should be fun here at Ft Bragg, NC. Hopefully they'll shut down Wednesday cause it's headed directly at here at this point.

Iowa looks dry. Too bad I'm driving to western Maryland tomorrow and spending two weeks there...

My former partner, now retired, just moved to Southport, NC.
Looks like Florence is gonna hit him square on.
Luckily, he was already planning to be back in Jersey next week to testify on an old case; guess he'll be here a little early.

Keeping a positive thought going for all in harms way...

NOAA pic of Florence on 8 Sep 2018

This is what I don't get: I have an out door event planned for this weekend starting on Thursday in Columbia S.C. I look at the weather forecast for Columbia and it says nothing more than the norm of 90 degree tempts and a 30% chance of thunder storms. But you look at the possible location of Florence and Columbia is in the zone.

If that thing brings much more rain to the Shenandoah valley, we’re screwed. This place has seen nothing but rain for months and the ground is beyond saturated.

quote:

Originally posted by Leemur:
If that thing brings much more rain to the Shenandoah valley, we’re screwed. This place has seen nothing but rain for months and the ground is beyond saturated.

If you look at the NHC projections for travel once it comes inland it is predicting it coming up just East of Roanoke and heading North.

It's coming. Get prepared now. The flooding could be catostrophic...

PS. My home is in the direct path as well and we live on Smith Mt. lake...

Looks like with Florence parking over NC and VA we'll see about 4 days plus of heavy rain. Some areas in VA are projected to get 15-20".

Currently the center of the cone of uncertainty is a little north of Wilmington, and projected to be a Cat4 just prior to landfall. Time to get ready.

quote:

Originally posted by smlsig:

quote:

Originally posted by Leemur:
If that thing brings much more rain to the Shenandoah valley, we’re screwed. This place has seen nothing but rain for months and the ground is beyond saturated.

If you look at the NHC projections for travel once it comes inland it is predicting it coming up just East of Roanoke and heading North.

It's coming. Get prepared now. The flooding could be catostrophic...

PS. My home is in the direct path as well and we live on Smith Mt. lake...

We’ll be lucky if any trees are left standing after this. The last big storm a few weeks ago took out quite a few in the area already.

NOAA has a tool that lets you zoom in on the track forecast. This is for the latest advisory #044

quote:

Originally posted by sdy:
NOAA has a tool that lets you zoom in on the track forecast. This is for the latest advisory #044

I am about 50 miles north of Greensboro,NC. My area's tobacco farmers have had a rough summer, high heat, humidity, August and Sept., now facing heavy rains.

I had planned to bike ride the Jackson River Trail at Covington,Va yesterday, but nixed it due to the rain. Seems now it will be quite some time before I get there.

Computer models keep shifting south. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this thing hit Savannah.

Looks like I picked a fine week to travel to Charlotte! For all those impacted - I pray this peters out and becomes a mild rain event - but it's not looking too good.

Looks like Charlotte is gonna be rough.
Lots of big trees in my neighborhood.