Dare County, NC just now (9/10, 9AM) issued mandatory evac orders, county wide.

Mandatory evac orders in effect today (visitors and residents, both) for areas served by ferries. Rest of the county, orders in effect starting tomorrow.

Better safe than sorry. While this is not officially the 'high season' there are a lot of guests still in the OBX, and they and the locals all have to get out via essentially, two small roads over lots of bridges.

NOAA indicating Florence to hit near Wilmington as M > 110 mph sustained winds,

then to Fayetteville as H 74-110 mph,

then to Greensboro as D < 39 mph

I don't know what I just watched, but I feel like I need to shoot a moose, or something.

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Originally posted by BigSwede:
[FLASH_VIDEO]

Holy Shit!

Just was reading that parts of VA and NC will receive not inches, but FEET of rain.

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I don't know what I just watched, but I feel like I need to shoot a moose, or something.

I saw a lava lamp.

https://www.washingtonpost.com...m_term=.916dad0725c4

Hurricane Florence intensifies to Category 4, continues to strengthen on path to East Coast

Hurricane Florence is rapidly intensifying on its path toward the East Coast and is now a Category 4 with 130 mph winds, the National Hurricane Center said in a special update. Florence is expected to strengthen to 150 mph just before landfall somewhere on the southeast or Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night.

Computer model forecasts generally project the storm to make landfall between northern South Carolina and North Carolina’s Outer Banks, although shifts in the track are possible, and storm impacts will expand great distances beyond where landfall occurs. Given the uncertainty and time it takes to evacuate, officials in North Carolina have issued mandatory evacuation orders for Dare County and Hatteras Island.

With each passing flight into the eye of the storm and every new computer model forecast, it has become increasingly unlikely that Florence will turn out to sea and spare the Eastern Seaboard from potentially devastating storm surge, flooding and wind. There’s even some indication that the hurricane will slow or stall out over the Mid-Atlantic later this week, which could lead to a disastrous amount of rain.

Like Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas in 2017, Florence could linger over the southeast for several days after landfall. Forecast models suggest that more than two feet of rain could fall over the higher elevations of the Carolinas and Virginia, which would generate dangerous flooding downstream. The flooding might be similar to what the Carolinas experienced during Hurricane Matthew in 2016.

As of 11 a.m. Monday, Florence was tracking west at 13 mph. Its peak winds were 130 mph, making it a Category 4 hurricane. It is not out of the question that Florence could become a Category 5 hurricane at some point. The official Hurricane Center forecast suggests that peak winds will reach 150 mph between Tuesday and Wednesday, just 7 mph below Category 5.

If Florence makes landfall as a Category 4 in North Carolina, it will be the strongest storm to come ashore that far north on record.

Residents along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts should continue to prepare for a major hurricane landfall and have an evacuation plan. In these coastal areas, heavy surf and elevated water levels are expected to arrive by Wednesday morning, and rainfall could begin by Thursday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds could reach the coastline as early as Wednesday night, at which point all outdoor preparations should be completed. Extremely dangerous hurricane-force winds could batter coastal locations Thursday into Friday. Hurricane to tropical-storm-force winds could extend inland, depending on the storm’s track.

Models have come into agreement that a northward turn before reaching the United States is unlikely and that a building high-pressure zone north of the storm will cause it to slow or stall once it reaches the coast or shortly thereafter. Rainfall could begin Friday or Saturday and continue into the following week. Where exactly the zone of heaviest rain will be is a big uncertainty. It could reasonably occur anywhere between the mountains and the coast.

In the simulations below, we can see that the European model focuses the heaviest rainfall in north-central North Carolina and southwestern Virginia — up to one to two feet or more, falling between Wednesday night and Monday night. The new American model is not as wet but shows widespread amounts of five to 10 inches or more up the Interstate 95 corridor in North Carolina through Washington and Baltimore

This region will be particularly susceptible to flooding because of far-above-normal rainfall in the region since May. In addition, because the ground is likely to be saturated, trees will be vulnerable in strong winds.

Parts of the Mid-Atlantic, especially from Virginia to Pennsylvania, have received 150 to 300 percent of their normal rainfall since May.

Farther north into the Delmarva Peninsula, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and New York, coastal and inland areas also should be preparing for significant storm effects.

Where the storm makes landfall has implications for where the strongest winds and biggest rise in water at the coast occurs, but strong winds and extreme rainfall could occur at great distances from the landfall location. Keeping this in mind, here is the likelihood of landfall at different locations based on our evaluation of model data:

70 percent in the Carolinas
10 percent between Virginia and Southern New England
10 percent offshore
10 percent between North Florida and Georgia
Even in the unlikely event that the storm center remains just offshore, it will almost certainly come close enough to bring dangerous wind and flooding to coastal areas. Inland areas may be somewhat spared in this scenario.

If a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) does make landfall along the southeast coast, the rarity of such an event is relevant. Since 1851, only 10 major hurricanes have done so, and the most recent was Fran in 1996, 22 years ago. Hugo in 1989 was the one before that and was a Category 4 at landfall. No hurricane has made landfall as a Category 5 in this region on record.

Many people in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic probably have not experienced a storm of the potential magnitude of Florence.

According to the current tracks on Ventusky (thanks for the link SDY, I like that app) it looks like it is going to hit us, bounce out, and come in again. We are definitely gonna get the big wet weenie here in the ENC.

Thursday 2:00PM Projected. Going further forwared is just depressing....

mbinky, you guys have been getting a shit ton of rain down there this summer anyway. I visited a gunsmith near Jacksonville and it poured the whole day, and he said it was typcial, for some reason, this year. This will put you into Noah territory.

They've started mandatory evacuations here in Charleston. I26 will have one East bound lane reversed starting tomorrow at 1200. Place is going to be gridlocked before long. As of now, it sounds like overkill, but I get it if the storm were to shift South. I'll give it another day or so before packing up. May put the wife and the dog in her car and send them towards Kentucky sooner than later.

In related news for the weather geeks who ever/used to follow accuweather forums, they've shut down.

Similar coverage and many of the same folks have gone to new site, WXDisco.

In the days leading up to Irma, roadways were packed 24/7 down here, except the day the storm hit. If there aren't bridges or causeways that will be closed, leaving late maybe an option.

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If a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) does make landfall along the southeast coast, the rarity of such an event is relevant. Since 1851, only 10 major hurricanes have done so, and the most recent was Fran in 1996, 22 years ago. Hugo in 1989 was the one before that and was a Category 4 at landfall. No hurricane has made landfall as a Category 5 in this region on record.

This part is big. We get used to seeing one level of hurricane damage for a while...this is a whole 'nother level if it does hit as a 4. I remember Hugo...250 miles inland it was a big deal.

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:
Computer models keep shifting south. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this thing hit Savannah.

Curious as to where you are seeing that? I've looked at NOAA alerts 40 thru 45 (which covers a few days) and the potential impact line has not moved south.

quote:

Originally posted by stiab:

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:
Computer models keep shifting south. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this thing hit Savannah.

Curious as to where you are seeing that? I've looked at NOAA alerts 40 thru 45 (which covers a few days) and the potential impact line has not moved south.

The circle of uncertainty INLAND has maybe shifted 2 degrees south between 44 and 45. But I don't see anything meaningful.

Yep, got to Kitty Hawk yesterday afternoon for a week's vacation and have to leave tonight. This sucks!

quote:

Originally posted by stiab:

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:
Computer models keep shifting south. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this thing hit Savannah.

Curious as to where you are seeing that? I've looked at NOAA alerts 40 thru 45 (which covers a few days) and the potential impact line has not moved south.

That was this morning. The models have shifted back north again.

quote:

Originally posted by MattW:
They've started mandatory evacuations here in Charleston.

Is it Charleston or just the islands? I had heard it's the latter.

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I26 will have one East bound lane reversed starting tomorrow at 1200. Place is going to be gridlocked before long.

Given the projected track I think it'd be more dangerous to get out into that traffic than to stay. In fact, I'm heading TO Charleston Saturday.

Weather disturbance coming from Cuba may allow a north-eastern turning.

Come on Cuba ...

quote:

Originally posted by mojojojo:

quote:

Originally posted by MattW:
They've started mandatory evacuations here in Charleston.

Is it Charleston or just the islands? I had heard it's the latter.

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I26 will have one East bound lane reversed starting tomorrow at 1200. Place is going to be gridlocked before long.

Given the projected track I think it'd be more dangerous to get out into that traffic than to stay. In fact, I'm heading TO Charleston Saturday.

Honestly I don’t know. I haven’t had time to dive into the fine print, just got the alert on my phone for Berkeley County. The 5PM update has it even further north now. In fact, Charleston isn’t even in the cone of death on that update.

5 pm report advisory 46

rough estimate: Florence has about a 100 mile radius from the center. (out to 39 mph)

The Hurricane wind radius is much smaller

The cone is the space of likely paths