I've heard several folks say that there's a glut in the current AR market, although I haven't seen any real price reductions. Thoughts?

You can’t reduce from current prices. ARs have stayed the same price or gotten cheaper since the 90s, aside from boutique builders who actually invest in quality control and specialized parts. Companies are going out of business instead.

There are many good deals to be had on AR's if you are patient and wait for sales. Geissele usually has great sales on July 4th and Black Friday, as well as sales of "blemished" rifles and parts. One of the best deals going for a quality rifle.

Or you can put together the rifle on your own. BCM also sometimes has blemished sales, where you can pick up a complete lower or upper for a pretty good price.

Finally, you can build our own from quality parts that you pick up on sale. Get a blemished stripped lower for $50-60. Wait for Geissele triggers to go on sale. Or LaRue MBT. Add a Toolcraft BCG, the charging handle of your choice, etc. I've seen Daniel Defense uppers (minus BCG and charging handle go on sale at Brownells for under $800.

With care and patience you can put together an outstanding rifle, with exactly the parts you want for a pretty good price.

There are several brands of sub $400 AR's out there.

Sales of guns and ammunition fluctuate wildly due to the political situation of the moment. My prediction (which I hope is wrong) is that there will be runs and shortages starting eight months from now, or certainly two years and eight months from now.

Many people simply don’t give much thought to the future until the future shows up on their doorstep. Absent a very unlikely court decision, purchasing an AR in Colorado will require going through a very onerous process starting in August, but are people here getting them now while the getting is good? Perhaps, but I’m not aware of the evidence of it. In four months, though?

If a retailer thinks I’m right about all that, it would make no sense to reduce prices now; eight months out is not that far off.

I will say that there are deals on Daniel Defense, notably the AR10 versions. They must not be getting any contracts right now.

how much cheaper can they get?

quote:

Originally posted by Mars_Attacks:
There are several brands of sub $400 AR's out there.

Yep. My LGS is giving $125 in trade on lower tier M4 pattern rifles. Selling them for $350

quote:

Originally posted by Voshterkoff:
I will say that there are deals on Daniel Defense, notably the AR10 versions. They must not be getting any contracts right now.

$3k+ is a “deal”?
At Midway a Saint Victor is $1500 and a S&W M&P 10 is $1200. They may not have the bragging rights of DD but 3k+ is insane.

EuroOptic has them for ~$2300.

A few years ago I bought a kicking around AR from PSA during a St Patties sale. It’s been fine in that role, sub $500, but forget the price.

What I’ve seen is you can buy a cheap AR really really cheaply. Outside of some sales the better stuff is still pretty pricy.

I can go down to Florida Gun exchange and basically buy a pallet of no name AR’s for 399 apiece. A DD will still cost you though.

Latest estimate is 30 million AR-15s (or MSRs - "Modern Sporting Rifles" if you prefer) in the United States. That number has doubled from just a few years ago. I'd be inclined to call that 'market saturation' except that there's a good chance that if we check the estimate in four or five years, it might be 40 million.

These numbers firmly establish the AR-15 as meeting the definition of firearms in "common use" as discussed in Heller and Bruen.

I picked up a few things on a St. Patrick's day sale a couple of days ago. It seems like there are sales more often lately and if you are flexible on what you want you can find some deals.

Unfortunately I sometimes run out of patience and the market hasn't crashed hard in all areas. I have paid more than I want for higher end items a time or two.

Well it’s not completely saturated because I’m tempted by a couple DD sbr’s that I don’t need. lol

Windham Weaponry used to put out some nice AR's at reasonable prices. However, since they folded and were reconstituted I'm not sure what their overall quality is like.

I saw a good Collin noir video the other day, saying what I agree with- the vast majority of AR owners don’t have a need for a hard use “ milspec” ( whatever that really means) AR, and most people will well served with the $500 ish ruger S&W or other “ bottom tier” gun

Honestly since I retired from the military I have not shot my AR much though it still sits ready for defense use if needed. ( mine is a Frankenstein gun with a to
Tier noveske upper, but your run of the mill ruger lower)
To pull out charge and defend the homestead, pretty much any AR will do. There is a lot of snobbery in the AR world ( every gun sub culture actually)
I shoot a good amount of PRS/ NRL 22 rimfire, and all the cultists are running rim x or vudoo with euro glass, with rigs totaling 7+ grand. I still occasionally squeak past them for a win - with a 10/22 or savage MKII

quote:

Originally posted by captain127:
I still occasionally squeak past them for a win - with a 10/22 or savage MKII

It would be great to learn more about your NRL22 experiences (in a different thread).
My local club is scheduled to get involved with NRL22 and hold some matches this summer. I am looking forward to them.

I think the market is over saturated with AR15’s. If you buy a high end gun and try to sell later, you are going to take a huge hit on it. In today’s economy, most will buy the $500 guns and call it a day. I see many of them on the ranges, but also see the older guys with more disposable income with 3-5k guns which only see the bench at 100yds.

Hell…I tried to sell a complete green anodized Aero upper / rail with a Leupold 1-4 VXR green dot SPR , Troy sights, Sreamlight, bipod, muzzle…ect for $725. Not one offer. I ended up trading it for a NIB Marlin 1894C in 357.



The Law of Diminishing Returns is in full effect with AR15’s