3 round rifle groups are shown just about everywhere guns are discussed – manufacturer’s media, blogs, enthusiast sites, social media. But do 3-round groups realistically depict a rifle’s accuracy? Along the lines of incontinence undies, it depends…

If accuracy is the rifle owner’s goal, then true accuracy must be repeatable. Not just once in a blue moon. Not that one time in 2002 when the stars aligned properly with the rings around Uranus. Not the one refrigerator trophy group that spawns the hackneyed “Sub-MOA all day long, as long as I do my part.” But can 3 rounds tell the right story?

I totally believe 3 rounds are useful in certain circumstances:
- Confirming a hunting rifle is still zeroed properly at the start of the season. If the group is acceptably tight, in a pattern seen in previous seasons. For most hunting situations, gnat’s ass precision isn’t necessary.
- Initial load development analysis (or factory ammo options), especially for a new barrel. 3 rounds at 100 yards weeds out the loads that are obviously inaccurate. This provides a provides a platform for tweaking loads, and for determining if the preferred load is accurate at longer distances.
- Initial zeroing a scope.
- Confirming that a precision rifle is good to go for this week’s PRS/NRL/steel match.

I’ll call the rifle-ammo-sights-shooter combo the “System”. A truly accurate/precise System is repeatable. Morning, afternoon, next month, next year. Hot, cold, crappy weather, low visibility. Feeling chipper or suffering from yesterday’s bad enchilada. IMO the shooter is the most common System consistency challenge, likely followed by ammo.

All other things being equal, a group comprised of a high number of rounds statistically will be larger than a group comprised of a low number of rounds. But over a small number of sample groups, variations occur. The System can “throw rounds in” as easily as it can “throw rounds out”, especially if the System has inherently higher variation in accuracy.

My primary rifle instructor places limited substance in a single 3-round group, especially if the group substantially missed the point of aim (“POA”) at 50 to 100 yards. For example, a small group centered 3 inches from POA, at 1 o’clock. He states that if the System works properly, a quick & easy adjustment to sights results in a second (and third and fourth) group perfectly centered on the POA. When only the off-POA group is presented, he states that the System likely can’t repeat the great results on demand. And likely that the shooter doesn’t want to admit this is the case.

So, here we go. The rifle is a Wilson Combat AR15 which I’ve had for years. Not a precision bolt action, shot from a solid bench rest, with a mechanical tripod front rest and a heavy shot-filled bunny-eared rear bag. An AR15 with factory ammo shot from field conditions – prone, bipod, and rear squeeze bag. Meaning that when I get off the gun, the crosshairs are no longer on target. Getting off the gun and the sights are still on target…the 4th part of System has changed from “shooter” to “rest”. Field conditions also mean that I’m doing my best to avoid cactus, dips & bumps in the ground, and cowpies.
- On its second barrel, 16” 1:8 twist, Recon profile, unfluted. I shot out the first barrel. This one is likely half-way through its useful life for me.
- Second bolt. This one’s NiB. The first one was parkerized, and it showed noticeable lug wear when I pulled barrel #1.
- Second handguard. The first was a cheese grater quad rail.
- Second buttstock. After a few years, I found a Magpul I liked better than the original.
- Maybe the third optic. Currently a Vortex PST Gen2, 2-10x.
- The rifle has been bounced around in vehicles & airplanes. Used in training & competition.
- I’m a dipshit and I drove over it with my 4Runner in the pasture this summer. Fortunately, the ground was soft – no apparent damage to the rifle, outside of some scuff marks. The Atlas bipod was badly bent & went into the trash. The scope required a little re-zeroing, around 2 MOA windage. The tire ran right across the scope, receiver group, and pistol grip.
- I have ARs that are slightly more accurate, but this one is no slouch.

With one exception on steel plates, the following targets are everything I shot on these given days. No sighters, no warmups, no pulled targets, no eliminated "flyers", and all shots landed on target. Starting with cold bore and cold shooter. Shooting on demand, in late afternoon (between 3 and 5 o’clock), after working 5-7 hours at our ranch.

First up, factory American Eagle FMJ 55 at 100 yards. 6/12/2025
- Gusty winds from my left. POA was center of pasters, with the POI showing a definite bias to the right. The groups are more like patterns – all over the board in sizes and shapes. Best of these 6 groups was .81” and the worst was 2.35”. If all 18 rounds were superimposed on the same paster, the overall group size would have been about 2-3/4 inches.
- A bit later in the day, similar conditions, 8 targets. I won’t post the target photo here. The 3-round group sizes ranged from .55” (definitely low and right of POA) to 1.96”. If all 24 rounds were superimposed on the same paster, the overall group size would have been at least 4-1/4 inches.

AE-55 the following week. Light breezes from 4-5 o’clock. 6/18/2025
- 4 pasters with groups from .57” to 1.95”. Combined 12-round group size of about 2-1/4 inches.
- 6 pasters with groups from .87” to 2.72”. Combined 18-round group size of just under 3 inches.
- IMO these targets adequately reflect the accuracy variation caused by using ball ammo. One can get lucky with a few rounds here and there, but ultimately the crappy accuracy appears.

Federal Gold Medal Match 69 at 100 yards, a couple days later. Switching winds of 10-15 mph from 5-7 o’clock. 6/20/2025
- 2 pasters with groups of .61” and .82”
- 4 pasters with groups of .55” through .66”
Note the consistency of group sizes and POI. Combined 18-round group of maybe 1-1/8 inches. I consider this an excellent result, given the wonky winds from approaching storms.

FGMM 69 again, 2 weeks later. Challenging winds from 5-7 o’clock – starting at 5-10mph, increasing to almost 20 mph by the last target. Approaching storms from both my right and left made for nerve-wracking shooting conditions. 7/6/2025
- Group sizes from .50” to 1.23”. Combined 18-round group size of maybe 1-3/8 inches.
- The high POI of the middle-left group is all me. I broke positions between groups, and my common error of throwing rounds high was in full force.
- I believe the lateral dispersion of the bottom right group was completely the result of wind gusts. My reticle remained dead solid on the center of the pasters for all shoots, all the way through the recoil cycle.




More to come -- targets at distance....

Quite a demonstration!
Thanks and waiting for the rest.

FGMM ammo always yields such nice groups! Nice shooting.

quote:

Originally posted by fritz:
FGMM 69 again, 2 weeks later. Challenging winds from 5-7 o’clock – starting at 5-10mph, increasing to almost 20 mph by the last target. Approaching storms from both my right and left made for nerve-wracking shooting conditions. 7/6/2025
- Group sizes from .50” to 1.23”. Combined 18-round group size of maybe 1-3/8 inches.
- The high POI of the middle-left group is all me. I broke positions between groups, and my common error of throwing rounds high was in full force.
- I believe the lateral dispersion of the bottom right group was completely the result of wind gusts. My reticle remained dead solid on the center of the pasters for all shoots, all the way through the recoil cycle.




More to come -- targets at distance....

Wind can be so frustrating when you are just trying to evaluate different loads.

Very interesting. Thank you for your work.

When developing loads I use 5 shot groups. Then start weeding them out. When I got two or three w/ promise I then go to 10 round groups w/ those. Then weed it down from there. Then I will shoot a match w/ it to see if it does well “in real life” if it goes to hell…. Start all over again. If it does well it should be repeatable…

I've always just done three rounders. It worked in the military, and it's worked for 50 years of hunting. Of course, I'm not into precision long range type stuff, and if I were it may change, but for me? Three's good enough. Plus, at nearly $5 a round for my hunting rifles, I'd rather spend $15 sighting in than $25 or $50 (or more).

quote:

Originally posted by IndianaBoy:

quote:

Originally posted by fritz:
....

Wind can be so frustrating when you are just trying to evaluate different loads.

haha

I'M JUST TRYING TO SEE IF MY SHIT IS WORKING!

Very informative fritz, thanks!

I think it depends on the rifle, caliber, and intended use. When I shot smallbore every shot is single load, and the entire match is one shot per bullseye.

NRA A-36?

That's the one.

quote:

Originally posted by RichardC:
NRA A-36?

I used 3round groups to get shooters on target in the service. But scoring targets had 10 rounds on each.

So I use 10 round groups for my shooting evaluation

FGMM at 359 and 477 yards, 7/15/2025. Winds were bad, from my 7-8 o’clock. I planned to spray weeds all that day, but the winds got so bad that I could no longer spray. I held left of target on all shots – starting the session at 1 MOA left of the 9 o’clock plate point, increasing to 3-4 MOA left by the end of the session. The steel plates were actually moving in the wind. 12” square plates for 359 yards, and a 16” square plate for 477 yards.
- I didn’t take a picture of or measure the impacts of the first 359 yard target. I’m a dipshit. The elevation dope notes I had were for my 24” barrel AR15, not this 16” barrel rifle. So...it took a few rounds to get the scope’s elevation correct. “WTF are the rounds landing lower than the plate?….”
- When evaluating the System’s accuracy in winds at distance, vertical dispersion is what really counts. Horizontal dispersion reflects the shooter’s ability to compensate for the environment.
- I decided to post pictures of only some of the targets. I am including the measurements of all groups.

359 yards
- 1-1/2” vertical and 3-7/8” horizontal. About .40 MOA vertical. Pic below.



- 3-1/8” vertical and 6-5/8” horizontal. About .83 MOA vertical. I threw the high second round high, and I knew it.

- 2-5/8” vertical and 1-5/8” horizontal. About .70 MOA vertical.

477 yards
- 3-1/4” vertical and 4” horizontal. About .65 MOA vertical. Pic below.



359 yards
- 2-3/4” vertical and 2-1/2” horizontal. About .73 MOA vertical.

- 1-3/4” vertical & horizontal. About .47 MOA. Pic below.



- 3-1/2” vertical and 4” horizontal. About .93 MOA vertical.

- The 8 remaining rounds in the mag. 4” vertical and 4-1/4” horizontal. About 1.06 MOA vertical. This is a great example of how groups generally open up with higher round counts. Pic below.



477 yards
- 3-3/4” vertical and 4” horizontal. About .75 MOA vertical. Pic below.

More nice demonstration targets.

That's some mighty impresssive shooting right there.

quote:

Originally posted by fritz:
FGMM at 359 and 477 yards, 7/15/2025. Winds were bad, from my 7-8 o’clock. I planned to spray weeds all that day, but the winds got so bad that I could no longer spray. I held left of target on all shots – starting the session at 1 MOA left of the 9 o’clock plate point, increasing to 3-4 MOA left by the end of the session. The steel plates were actually moving in the wind. 12” square plates for 359 yards, and a 16” square plate for 477 yards.
- I didn’t take a picture of or measure the impacts of the first 359 yard target. I’m a dipshit. The elevation dope notes I had were for my 24” barrel AR15, not this 16” barrel rifle. So...it took a few rounds to get the scope’s elevation correct. “WTF are the rounds landing lower than the plate?….”
- When evaluating the System’s accuracy in winds at distance, vertical dispersion is what really counts. Horizontal dispersion reflects the shooter’s ability to compensate for the environment.
- I decided to post pictures of only some of the targets. I am including the measurements of all groups.

359 yards
- 1-1/2” vertical and 3-7/8” horizontal. About .40 MOA vertical. Pic below.



- 3-1/8” vertical and 6-5/8” horizontal. About .83 MOA vertical. I threw the high second round high, and I knew it.

- 2-5/8” vertical and 1-5/8” horizontal. About .70 MOA vertical.

477 yards
- 3-1/4” vertical and 4” horizontal. About .65 MOA vertical. Pic below.



359 yards
- 2-3/4” vertical and 2-1/2” horizontal. About .73 MOA vertical.

- 1-3/4” vertical & horizontal. About .47 MOA. Pic below.



- 3-1/2” vertical and 4” horizontal. About .93 MOA vertical.

- The 8 remaining rounds in the mag. 4” vertical and 4-1/4” horizontal. About 1.06 MOA vertical. This is a great example of how groups generally open up with higher round counts. Pic below.



477 yards
- 3-3/4” vertical and 4” horizontal. About .75 MOA vertical. Pic below.

7/20/2025, I returned to AE-55 FMJ, on 12” plates at 305 yards. Winds were “healthy” from the WNW early that day, sometimes making spot weed spraying interesting. But in late afternoon as storms tracked to both the north and south, a rare afternoon dead calm conditions occurred. By the time I set up targets, a light breeze of 1-2 mph arose from the NE. Given that the breezes would be from my 11 o’clock for the target setup, there would be minimal bullet drift. I held about an inch left of center, which offset any wind drift issues. A perfect time to test low-BC ball ammo.

IMO the vertical and horizontal dispersions were all due to ammo. I felt my technique was spot on this day.

The first 5 targets at 305 yards
2-3/8” vertical and 5-1/4” horizontal.



2” vertical and 8-3/4” horizontal.



2-3/8" vertical and 2” horizontal.



2-1/4" vertical and 8-1/4” horizontal.



3” vertical and 2-1/4” horizontal.