I know people joke in jest nowadays about, “my stamp is taking weeks”. But what’s the over/under on how long before people really mean it?

I think the longest I waited was approx. 10 months before. Which was normal at the time.

Now I’ve yet to wait over a week on my last 4-5. I haven’t seen a genuinely upset post about it taking weeks. But I know it’s coming.

How much rage do you want? I’m on Day 8 of waiting for my Form 1 to get approved. My last 5, all within the past few months, were 2-3 days, so I’m pretty pissed about it. The fact that it used to take 6-10 months previously doesn’t make it in any way better.

Our local dealer/manufacturer predicted recently that after the first of the year, the long wait times will be back.

Reason: people are waiting right now, 'til after January 1 when the $200 fee goes away, and after that date the system will be plum full of new forms being filed. Those who are willing to pay the fee now are enjoying the short wait times.

It makes sense to me. There's an item I want; I'm just trying to decide whether to pay up now or wait later.

^^^^^^
I’ve made a similar prediction. My LGS has dozens of cans that have been paid for. And the owners are waiting for Jan 1 to transfer.

Which is why I’m waiting on a Sandman-X to get here so I can pay the $200 convenience fee.

As have I several times. Anything you're not willing to wait a year for, you might better go ahead and grab it now.

I suspect that the expected wait after Jan 1 is vastly overblown. To be sure, I think there will be delays, and wouldn’t be surprised to see the website overloaded and go down for a week or so, but expect that after a couple of weeks it will settle down. Wait times might go up to a month or so, but that too will settle down.

There will be an initial rush, like when eforms came back a couple of years ago, but once that’s past, it will normalize.

Back in 2016, I waited 11.5 months on SBR stamps.

I've gone a little crazy and bought 5 suppressors this year. Four stamps were approved in less than 48 hours, one took 20 days. I'm out some tax stamp $, but caught suppressors on sale and have 2 free threaded pistol barrels in the mail from SilencerCo's Big Beautiful Credit.

If it's your first suppressor I wouldn't want to wait. I think the NFA website crashes during the first week of January, and wait times could stretch to June before the backlog starts to clear. Yes, free stamps next year, but I don't for see 3D printed flow thru design suppressors going on big discount in 2026.

If you want to buy a used 10 year old Rugged Razor or Dead Air Sandman for cheap in 2026 you'll be in luck.

quote:

Originally posted by Dwill104:
I suspect that the expected wait after Jan 1 is vastly overblown.

I really hope you're right. Continued expedited processing times would be excellent.

a couple of points. First as ibanda noted if the transfer fee is 0 there is now a used market in suppressors. A potentially new processing problem that has not existed.
Second I think based on my personal thinking and P220Smudge comments that the Form1 volume is going to skyrocket.

Third I don't think for a minute we are getting to the 0 without a court case. Even if resolved quickly it will make make that first surge/wave even bigger.
Lastly IMO I see no possible case that the ATF will handle a massive volume change with no corresponding processing time delay. Can't happen given they were not given either time or money to prepare.
if you want/need it just pay your $200 and get it now...