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| Get my pies outta the oven!  |
Good news if you were planning on any additions or renovations or other projects calling for lumber: Lumber Futures Wipe Out 2021 Gains As Supply Builds Prices are still double of pre-Covid prices but hopefully that resolves itself in time. We purposefully are waiting a year to do a kitchen gut renovation precisely because prices are just too crazy plus the guy we want to use is booked out almost that far anyway. | ||
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Good news. Things were beyond crazy for a few months. Retired holster maker. Retired police chief. Formerly Sergeant, US Army Airborne Infantry, Pathfinders | |||
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Frangas non Flectes |
Good. We were getting quotes on having our fence replaced as it’s all rotted out. Quotes went from $4k on average about two months ago for 120 feet of cedar to $9k from the lowest bidder about three weeks ago! ______________________________________________ “There are plenty of good reasons for fighting, but no good reason ever to hate without reservation, to imagine that God Almighty Himself hates with you, too.” | |||
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| Do the next right thing  |
Hope ammo is next! | |||
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| Green grass and high tides  |
It is coming alright. Wait till real estate "pops." It is going to get exciting.  "Practice like you want to play in the game" | |||
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| Thank you Very little  |
we need an ammo price pop, | |||
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Member |
Trouble is the retail lumberyards are sitting on inventories purchased at the peak and until it sells won't be buying more at the new lower supplier prices.
Don't thinks it's going to "pop" like 2007-2008 around here. According to my broker contacts, most of what's selling around here is to flatlanders for cash or with yuuge downpayments and minimal financing. Harshest Dream, Reality | |||
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| Green grass and high tides |
If you buy something and your not living in it. Making payments on it. When the market drops, guess what. Some places will will be somewhat isolated. But it will affect the market as a whole. My take anyways. But hey, go ahead and keep buying. The higher the better.  The brokers love it. Most don't salt away their spoils so there is that. "Practice like you want to play in the game" | |||
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| Get my pies outta the oven! |
LOL, yep I was just told this morning by a friend that won't happen, and I just had to laugh. he has NO clue, being in the housing market for the first time. He just put in numerous bids for a 22 year old 2500 sq foot house that sold a few years for $500,000. After he hit $700,000 and STILL wasn't even getting the time of day from the seller he said he was out. This shit is SO going to crash and hard. | |||
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| Member |
Nope. You guys are misreading crash and correct like they aren’t two very different animals. Early 2000 crash was expected, understood, and predictable. Bad lending practices due to bad policy led to crazy flipping and buying multiple properties without any actual means to support said purchases. Buyers were buying with no intent to live in property or just a minimum time to paint carpet and flip. This market couldn’t be any different. Today’s buyers are predominantly buying houses they intend to live in. They are putting down scads of cash. This market is being fueled by low interest rates but it’s also largely cash intensive. Somebody posted a great visual the other day. Ignore the actual numbers because I’m too lazy to look them up but look at the gist of the numbers. When mortgage rates go up, housing prices will go down. Fact. However 1500 dollars (20% down) mortgage (P and I) gets you $350,000 of loan at 3%. Bump that to 5.5% which isn’t a historically bad rate and that same $1500 payment gets you $265,000. Play with the numbers, some have lower rates and perhaps rates higher than my example become the norm, but with my very reasonable example on a $350,000 the market could “correct” $85,000 downwards without really hurting the homeowner. By that I mean your next door neighbor buys his identical house for 85k less, $265,000, and yet he’s still paying the same house payment as you. You haven’t been hurt. If the market corrects less than 85k in this example, yes your neighbor will buy the house cheaper than you did but his house payment will be higher. Do you think he wouldn’t gladly swap places? All cash buyers would benefit but be real, most home buyers finance their purchase. (And yes 350k is really 350 minus 20% down and 265k minus 20% down as well but you get the point. Math matters) A correction is coming. If you are buying to flip or think the market will continue at this pace then those people are idiots and in for a bad surprise. If you are buying to live in a house that you intend to live in for awhile you probably will be fine. If you think you might be moving in the next couple years, there are better options than buying. This won’t be the crash of 07 revisited. The fundamentals are different. A lot different. | |||
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This Space for Rent |
Lumber needs to keep going down. It’s killing our returns and we have a number of projects on hold. Now, if it can get under $500/mbf, that’s good for us. Now just need steel products and plastics to follow suit. We will never know world peace, until three people can simultaneously look each other straight in the eye Liberals are like pussycats and Twitter is Trump's laser pointer to keep them busy while he takes care of business - Rey HRH. | |||
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Member |
And gas. Friggin' $2.95(9) at Kroger for mid-grade. Biden can go straight to hell...  "If you’re a leader, you lead the way. Not just on the easy ones; you take the tough ones too…” – MAJ Richard D. Winters (1918-2011), E Company, 2nd Battalion, 506th Parachute Infantry Regiment, 101st Airborne "Woe to those who call evil good, and good evil... Therefore, as tongues of fire lick up straw and as dry grass sinks down in the flames, so their roots will decay and their flowers blow away like dust; for they have rejected the law of the Lord Almighty and spurned the word of the Holy One of Israel." - Isaiah 5:20,24 | |||
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$2.95? Its $3.20 in the Yoop. End of Earth: 2 Miles Upper Peninsula: 4 Miles | |||
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| Get my pies outta the oven! |
You still have it good, my last fill-up of 89 was $3.25 here in PA  | |||
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| Page late and a dollar short |
$3.27-3.35 down here! -------------------------------------—————— ————————--Ignorance is a powerful tool if applied at the right time, even, usually, surpassing knowledge(E.J.Potter, A.K.A. The Michigan Madman) | |||
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Member |
Great…our house is on the market… | |||
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| Member |
Just a timely reminder No One Expects The Spanish Inquisition | |||
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| Three Generations of Service  |
Had to pick up some 2x4's today. A month ago, an 8 foot 2x4KD (Kiln Dried, as opposed to Pressure Treated) was $13.99 Today, it was $7.99. Sales guy (a friend, I used to work there) said "And you're happy to pay only double what they were a year ago!" Sad, but true... Be careful when following the masses. Sometimes the M is silent. | |||
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Expectation bias is a bitch. Lol | |||
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Alienator |
The real estate market isn't going to pop. It's drive by high demand and low supply. They stopped building during covid and even years before that. SIG556 Classic P220 Carry SAS Gen 2 SAO SP2022 9mm German Triple Serial P938 SAS P365 FDE P322 FDE Psalm 118:24 "This is the day which the Lord hath made; we will rejoice and be glad in it" | |||
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