Good news if you were planning on any additions or renovations or other projects calling for lumber:

Lumber Futures Wipe Out 2021 Gains As Supply Builds


Prices are still double of pre-Covid prices but hopefully that resolves itself in time.

We purposefully are waiting a year to do a kitchen gut renovation precisely because prices are just too crazy plus the guy we want to use is booked out almost that far anyway.

Good news. Things were beyond crazy for a few months.

Good. We were getting quotes on having our fence replaced as it’s all rotted out. Quotes went from $4k on average about two months ago for 120 feet of cedar to $9k from the lowest bidder about three weeks ago!

Hope ammo is next!

It is coming alright. Wait till real estate "pops." It is going to get exciting.

we need an ammo price pop,

Trouble is the retail lumberyards are sitting on inventories purchased at the peak and until it sells won't be buying more at the new lower supplier prices.

quote:

Originally posted by old rugged cross:
It is coming alright. Wait till real estate "pops." It is going to get exciting.

Don't thinks it's going to "pop" like 2007-2008 around here. According to my broker contacts, most of what's selling around here is to flatlanders for cash or with yuuge downpayments and minimal financing.

If you buy something and your not living in it. Making payments on it. When the market drops, guess what.
Some places will will be somewhat isolated. But it will affect the market as a whole. My take anyways. But hey, go ahead and keep buying. The higher the better.

The brokers love it. Most don't salt away their spoils so there is that.

quote:

Originally posted by old rugged cross:
It is coming alright. Wait till real estate "pops." It is going to get exciting.

LOL, yep

I was just told this morning by a friend that won't happen, and I just had to laugh. he has NO clue, being in the housing market for the first time.

He just put in numerous bids for a 22 year old 2500 sq foot house that sold a few years for $500,000. After he hit $700,000 and STILL wasn't even getting the time of day from the seller he said he was out.

This shit is SO going to crash and hard.

Nope. You guys are misreading crash and correct like they aren’t two very different animals. Early 2000 crash was expected, understood, and predictable. Bad lending practices due to bad policy led to crazy flipping and buying multiple properties without any actual means to support said purchases. Buyers were buying with no intent to live in property or just a minimum time to paint carpet and flip.

This market couldn’t be any different. Today’s buyers are predominantly buying houses they intend to live in. They are putting down scads of cash. This market is being fueled by low interest rates but it’s also largely cash intensive.

Somebody posted a great visual the other day. Ignore the actual numbers because I’m too lazy to look them up but look at the gist of the numbers. When mortgage rates go up, housing prices will go down. Fact. However 1500 dollars (20% down) mortgage (P and I) gets you $350,000 of loan at 3%. Bump that to 5.5% which isn’t a historically bad rate and that same $1500 payment gets you $265,000. Play with the numbers, some have lower rates and perhaps rates higher than my example become the norm, but with my very reasonable example on a $350,000 the market could “correct” $85,000 downwards without really hurting the homeowner. By that I mean your next door neighbor buys his identical house for 85k less, $265,000, and yet he’s still paying the same house payment as you. You haven’t been hurt. If the market corrects less than 85k in this example, yes your neighbor will buy the house cheaper than you did but his house payment will be higher. Do you think he wouldn’t gladly swap places? All cash buyers would benefit but be real, most home buyers finance their purchase. (And yes 350k is really 350 minus 20% down and 265k minus 20% down as well but you get the point. Math matters)

A correction is coming. If you are buying to flip or think the market will continue at this pace then those people are idiots and in for a bad surprise. If you are buying to live in a house that you intend to live in for awhile you probably will be fine. If you think you might be moving in the next couple years, there are better options than buying.

This won’t be the crash of 07 revisited. The fundamentals are different. A lot different.

Lumber needs to keep going down. It’s killing our returns and we have a number of projects on hold. Now, if it can get under $500/mbf, that’s good for us.

Now just need steel products and plastics to follow suit.

quote:

Originally posted by ugeesta:
Now just need steel products and plastics to follow suit.

And gas. Friggin' $2.95(9) at Kroger for mid-grade. Biden can go straight to hell...

$2.95? Its $3.20 in the Yoop.

quote:

Originally posted by erj_pilot:
Friggin' $2.95(9) at Kroger for mid-grade. Biden can go straight to hell...

You still have it good, my last fill-up of 89 was $3.25 here in PA

quote:

Originally posted by YooperSigs:
$2.95? Its $3.20 in the Yoop.

$3.27-3.35 down here!

Great…our house is on the market…

Just a timely reminder

No One Expects The Spanish Inquisition

Had to pick up some 2x4's today.

A month ago, an 8 foot 2x4KD (Kiln Dried, as opposed to Pressure Treated) was $13.99

Today, it was $7.99.

Sales guy (a friend, I used to work there) said "And you're happy to pay only double what they were a year ago!"

Sad, but true...

Expectation bias is a bitch. Lol

quote:

Originally posted by old rugged cross:
It is coming alright. Wait till real estate "pops." It is going to get exciting.

The real estate market isn't going to pop. It's drive by high demand and low supply. They stopped building during covid and even years before that.