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Lead slingin'
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quote:
Originally posted by sigfreund:
And the responses here are unlikely to be random either. If I saw someone post my birthdate, I would be more likely to say, “Me, too,” than I would be to just wander in, look around, and move on to other things. We are looking at far more than the first 70 people who post, but rather the entire block of people who view the thread.

It’s like any other poll: Allowing self-selected respondents skews things significantly.


It would be interesting to try this same test but use wedding anniversaries...or perhaps our parent's wedding anniversaries would be more pertinent.
 
Posts: 7324 | Location: the Centennial state | Registered: August 21, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Muzzle flash
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quote:
Originally posted by soflaac:
quote:
Originally posted by Skins2881:
Interesting. The math part makes sense.



I wonder how it's affected by when people have sex. More people have sex in winter (nothing else better to do) so there are more summer/fall babies.


Reminds me of the time I was visiting an Air Force buddy who was stationed up in the UP (K I Sawyer). We crossed the Mackinac Bridge, pulled into a gas station to fuel up. Station wagon pulled up near us, dude got out, like 5 kids of assorted ages get out, wife gets out & she's obviously pregnant.

I looked at my buddy "What the hell, man?"

He shrugs his shoulders "Long winters"


The birthday paradox works only if the shared birthday is unspecified. The math is based on calculating the probability that the next person checked won't have a birthday like one of the prior ones.

flashguy




Texan by choice, not accident of birth
 
Posts: 27911 | Location: Dallas, TX | Registered: May 08, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by Modern Day Savage:
quote:
Originally posted by sigfreund:
And the responses here are unlikely to be random either. If I saw someone post my birthdate, I would be more likely to say, “Me, too,” than I would be to just wander in, look around, and move on to other things. We are looking at far more than the first 70 people who post, but rather the entire block of people who view the thread.

It’s like any other poll: Allowing self-selected respondents skews things significantly.


It would be interesting to try this same test but use wedding anniversaries...or perhaps our parent's wedding anniversaries would be more pertinent.


Should be the same. As long as the number of choices is 365, the math works the same.

For example, you could ask 23 people to blindly pick one sock out of a box which contains 365 differently colored socks. Odds are 50% at least two pick the same color (assuming they all have the 365 items available to them to choose).
 
Posts: 5906 | Location: Denver, CO | Registered: September 16, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of mark60
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quote:
Originally posted by Skins2881:
quote:
Originally posted by mark60:
Sept 30


Bang, game over. I'm end of third quarter too.


Even though I question the winter theory I live it. It must have been a cold boring January in Buffalo. Big Grin
 
Posts: 3572 | Location: God Awful New York | Registered: July 01, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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In the service, I ran into a fellow Marine that was born on the same day, October 16th, and had the same name.



Sgt. USMC 1970 - 1973
 
Posts: 411 | Location: Columbiana, Ohio  | Registered: May 04, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by zipriderson:
quote:
Originally posted by Modern Day Savage:
quote:
Originally posted by sigfreund:
And the responses here are unlikely to be random either. If I saw someone post my birthdate, I would be more likely to say, “Me, too,” than I would be to just wander in, look around, and move on to other things. We are looking at far more than the first 70 people who post, but rather the entire block of people who view the thread.

It’s like any other poll: Allowing self-selected respondents skews things significantly.


It would be interesting to try this same test but use wedding anniversaries...or perhaps our parent's wedding anniversaries would be more pertinent.


Should be the same. As long as the number of choices is 365, the math works the same.

For example, you could ask 23 people to blindly pick one sock out of a box which contains 365 differently colored socks. Odds are 50% at least two pick the same color (assuming they all have the 365 items available to them to choose).


You're right of course. I worded my response poorly... culturally accepted norms and societal practices obviously differ over generations but I was curious to see if there was a correlation between children's birth dates and their parent's wedding dates. I suspect there used to be more of a correlation one or two generations ago than today.
 
Posts: 7324 | Location: the Centennial state | Registered: August 21, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by sigfreund:
And the responses here are unlikely to be random either. If I saw someone post my birthdate, I would be more likely to say, “Me, too,” than I would be to just wander in, look around, and move on to other things. We are looking at far more than the first 70 people who post, but rather the entire block of people who view the thread.

It’s like any other poll: Allowing self-selected respondents skews things significantly.

It's for fun. I doubt anyone doubts the math.



Year V
 
Posts: 2685 | Registered: November 05, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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College professor pointed this out in class as an easy money bet. To illustrate he started asking students beginning with the first chair in the first row. Found matching birthdays within the first 20 or so students.
 
Posts: 4354 | Location: Peoples Republic of Berkeley | Registered: June 12, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Dances With
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My sister and I share a birthday, but we are not twins. She’s 10 years older.
 
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quote:
Originally posted by Johnny 3eagles:
February the 17.


That is also my birthday.




NRA Benefactor Life Member
 
Posts: 8837 | Location: The Lone Star State | Registered: July 07, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Humans don't always have an instinctive feel for statistics.




The fish is mute, expressionless. The fish doesn't think because the fish knows everything.
 
Posts: 53362 | Location: Texas | Registered: February 10, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Anyone here also born on the Winter Solstice?

flashguy




Texan by choice, not accident of birth
 
Posts: 27911 | Location: Dallas, TX | Registered: May 08, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Freethinker
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quote:
Originally posted by flashguy:
Anyone here also born on the Winter Solstice?

flashguy


Not me, but which one?
(There are four days of the calendar when the winter solstice can occur: two in the northern hemisphere; two in the southern) Wink




6.4/93.6
___________
“We are Americans …. Together we have resisted the trap of appeasement, cynicism, and isolation that gives temptation to tyrants.”
— George H. W. Bush
 
Posts: 47860 | Location: 10,150 Feet Above Sea Level in Colorado | Registered: April 04, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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My friend and I share the date, he’s one year older than I. We’re both retired, I call him the old fart. We met at a mutual friend’s house, he was working on his Jeep in the heated garage that night in 1968. Birthdays got mentioned, at that point we both said “today’s my birthday”


-------------------------------------——————
————————--Ignorance is a powerful tool if applied at the right time, even, usually, surpassing knowledge(E.J.Potter, A.K.A. The Michigan Madman)
 
Posts: 8455 | Location: Livingston County Michigan USA | Registered: August 11, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I share my birthday with my brother and a cousin.

My brother is 6 years older than me, and my cousin is one year younger than me.
 
Posts: 186 | Location: Victorville, CA | Registered: April 27, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I was coming home one evening from work. Put on my blinker and start slowing down to turn onto my street and a guy in a brand new Benz AMG runs right into the back of my truck. We had the same birthday (different years) What is the chance of that?
 
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quote:
Originally posted by Southflorida-law:
I was coming home one evening from work. Put on my blinker and start slowing down to turn onto my street and a guy in a brand new Benz AMG runs right into the back of my truck. We had the same birthday (different years) What is the chance of that?


1/365

Same odds as with any stranger on the street, car accident or not Smile
 
Posts: 5906 | Location: Denver, CO | Registered: September 16, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I always heard it wa just 20 people in the room and there would almost always be two that had the same birthday.. but not year.

June 21st


My Native American Name:
"Runs with Scissors"
 
Posts: 4441 | Location: Greenville, SC | Registered: January 30, 2017Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Muzzle flash
aficionado
Picture of flashguy
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by sigfreund:
quote:
Originally posted by flashguy:
Anyone here also born on the Winter Solstice?

flashguy


Not me, but which one?
(There are four days of the calendar when the winter solstice can occur: two in the northern hemisphere; two in the southern) Wink
The most frequent northern one.

flashguy




Texan by choice, not accident of birth
 
Posts: 27911 | Location: Dallas, TX | Registered: May 08, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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