SIGforum
Birthday "Paradox"
December 07, 2019, 10:52 AM
Modern Day SavageBirthday "Paradox"
quote:
Originally posted by sigfreund:
And the responses here are unlikely to be random either. If I saw someone post my birthdate, I would be more likely to say, “Me, too,” than I would be to just wander in, look around, and move on to other things. We are looking at far more than the first 70 people who post, but rather the entire block of people who view the thread.
It’s like any other poll: Allowing self-selected respondents skews things significantly.
It would be interesting to try this same test but use wedding anniversaries...or perhaps our parent's wedding anniversaries would be more pertinent.
December 07, 2019, 10:56 AM
flashguyquote:
Originally posted by soflaac:
quote:
Originally posted by Skins2881:
Interesting. The math part makes sense.
I wonder how it's affected by when people have sex. More people have sex in winter (nothing else better to do) so there are more summer/fall babies.
Reminds me of the time I was visiting an Air Force buddy who was stationed up in the UP (K I Sawyer). We crossed the Mackinac Bridge, pulled into a gas station to fuel up. Station wagon pulled up near us, dude got out, like 5 kids of assorted ages get out, wife gets out & she's obviously pregnant.
I looked at my buddy "What the hell, man?"
He shrugs his shoulders "Long winters"
The birthday paradox works only if the shared birthday is unspecified. The math is based on calculating the probability that the next person checked won't have a birthday like one of the prior ones.
flashguy
Texan by choice, not accident of birth December 07, 2019, 10:56 AM
zipridersonquote:
Originally posted by Modern Day Savage:
quote:
Originally posted by sigfreund:
And the responses here are unlikely to be random either. If I saw someone post my birthdate, I would be more likely to say, “Me, too,” than I would be to just wander in, look around, and move on to other things. We are looking at far more than the first 70 people who post, but rather the entire block of people who view the thread.
It’s like any other poll: Allowing self-selected respondents skews things significantly.
It would be interesting to try this same test but use wedding anniversaries...or perhaps our parent's wedding anniversaries would be more pertinent.
Should be the same. As long as the number of choices is 365, the math works the same.
For example, you could ask 23 people to blindly pick one sock out of a box which contains 365 differently colored socks. Odds are 50% at least two pick the same color (assuming they all have the 365 items available to them to choose).
December 07, 2019, 10:59 AM
mark60quote:
Originally posted by Skins2881:
quote:
Originally posted by mark60:
Sept 30
Bang, game over. I'm end of third quarter too.
Even though I question the winter theory I live it. It must have been a cold boring January in Buffalo.
December 07, 2019, 11:07 AM
mas4363In the service, I ran into a fellow Marine that was born on the same day, October 16th, and had the same name.
Sgt. USMC 1970 - 1973 December 07, 2019, 11:22 AM
Modern Day Savagequote:
Originally posted by zipriderson:
quote:
Originally posted by Modern Day Savage:
quote:
Originally posted by sigfreund:
And the responses here are unlikely to be random either. If I saw someone post my birthdate, I would be more likely to say, “Me, too,” than I would be to just wander in, look around, and move on to other things. We are looking at far more than the first 70 people who post, but rather the entire block of people who view the thread.
It’s like any other poll: Allowing self-selected respondents skews things significantly.
It would be interesting to try this same test but use wedding anniversaries...or perhaps our parent's wedding anniversaries would be more pertinent.
Should be the same. As long as the number of choices is 365, the math works the same.
For example, you could ask 23 people to blindly pick one sock out of a box which contains 365 differently colored socks. Odds are 50% at least two pick the same color (assuming they all have the 365 items available to them to choose).
You're right of course. I worded my response poorly... culturally accepted norms and societal practices obviously differ over generations but I was curious to see if there was a correlation between children's birth dates and their parent's wedding dates. I suspect there used to be more of a correlation one or two generations ago than today.
December 07, 2019, 11:57 AM
Keystonerquote:
Originally posted by sigfreund:
And the responses here are unlikely to be random either. If I saw someone post my birthdate, I would be more likely to say, “Me, too,” than I would be to just wander in, look around, and move on to other things. We are looking at far more than the first 70 people who post, but rather the entire block of people who view the thread.
It’s like any other poll: Allowing self-selected respondents skews things significantly.
It's for fun. I doubt anyone doubts the math.
Year V December 07, 2019, 06:40 PM
bertoCollege professor pointed this out in class as an easy money bet. To illustrate he started asking students beginning with the first chair in the first row. Found matching birthdays within the first 20 or so students.
December 07, 2019, 07:54 PM
OKCGeneMy sister and I share a birthday, but we are not twins. She’s 10 years older.
December 07, 2019, 08:47 PM
StorminNorminquote:
Originally posted by Johnny 3eagles:
February the 17.
That is also my birthday.
NRA Benefactor Life Member December 08, 2019, 08:32 AM
jhe888Humans don't always have an instinctive feel for statistics.
The fish is mute, expressionless. The fish doesn't think because the fish knows everything. December 08, 2019, 01:54 PM
flashguyAnyone here also born on the Winter Solstice?
flashguy
Texan by choice, not accident of birth December 08, 2019, 01:56 PM
sigfreundquote:
Originally posted by flashguy:
Anyone here also born on the Winter Solstice?
flashguy
Not me, but which one?
(There are four days of the calendar when the winter solstice can occur: two in the northern hemisphere; two in the southern)
► 6.0/94.0
To operate serious weapons in a serious manner. December 08, 2019, 08:27 PM
shovelheadMy friend and I share the date, he’s one year older than I. We’re both retired, I call him the old fart. We met at a mutual friend’s house, he was working on his Jeep in the heated garage that night in 1968. Birthdays got mentioned, at that point we both said “today’s my birthday”
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————————--Ignorance is a powerful tool if applied at the right time, even, usually, surpassing knowledge(E.J.Potter, A.K.A. The Michigan Madman)
December 09, 2019, 07:33 AM
Jman78I share my birthday with my brother and a cousin.
My brother is 6 years older than me, and my cousin is one year younger than me.
December 09, 2019, 07:44 AM
Southflorida-lawI was coming home one evening from work. Put on my blinker and start slowing down to turn onto my street and a guy in a brand new Benz AMG runs right into the back of my truck. We had the same birthday (different years) What is the chance of that?
December 09, 2019, 08:29 AM
zipridersonquote:
Originally posted by Southflorida-law:
I was coming home one evening from work. Put on my blinker and start slowing down to turn onto my street and a guy in a brand new Benz AMG runs right into the back of my truck. We had the same birthday (different years) What is the chance of that?
1/365
Same odds as with any stranger on the street, car accident or not
December 09, 2019, 08:37 AM
Blume9mmI always heard it wa just 20 people in the room and there would almost always be two that had the same birthday.. but not year.
June 21st
My Native American Name:
"Runs with Scissors"
December 09, 2019, 03:43 PM
flashguyquote:
Originally posted by sigfreund:
quote:
Originally posted by flashguy:
Anyone here also born on the Winter Solstice?
flashguy
Not me, but which one?
(There are four days of the calendar when the winter solstice can occur: two in the northern hemisphere; two in the southern)
The most frequent northern one.
flashguy
Texan by choice, not accident of birth