When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
quote:
Originally posted by Rightwire: Im going to say it, all of these stats, projections and curves are total B.S., educated guesses at best.
The data is inaccurate at best. You are only testing a small sample of the population and that is random. No one has any idea what the true infection and recovery rate is today as they're only testing the very sick, if tests are available.
The only thing you can accurately determine is the % of tested positive, the % of tested negative, increase/decrease, and % of deaths & recoveries.
The fact that you're testing more, and more are positive doesn't mean there is an increase in rate of spread, it only demonstrates you can record and report that data. It doesn't appear to show how many were already presumed and now simply confirmed.
The one thing that stands out and I have to disagree with above is, “You are only testing a small sample of the population and that is random.” First, ”a minute sample” would probably be more accurate. Second, and probably more important, the sample isn’t random at all. It is people who are sick and are expected to have the virus and healthcare workers who have a higher probability of having been exposed to the virus (and who you really would not want spreading the virus if infected).
Realistically, the way we might know who has been infected is when this settles down if there is a serum test for antibodies and it is very widely deployed across the population. Even if it were available now, I’d be really surprised if the folks who are trying to save the sick people spent any time on an effort to get us better statistics.
Time will tell. In the meantime, we needs to be patient, as frustrating as that is.
I need one of those signs that says, “Please God, give me patience, and give it to me NOW!”
April 01, 2020, 02:03 PM
maladat
quote:
Originally posted by Black92LX: It is weird Fauci says one thing in the briefs with the President. But publishes in the New England Journal of Medicine that it will look just like the mortality rate of the flu.
quote:
This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2
Despite the date shown on that page, that was published in late February. I posted about it in this thread then. If you look at the page view metrics, it has page views more than 30 days ago. https://www.nejm.org/doi/metrics/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
At the time, the fatality rate was being widely reported as 2-3%, sometimes worse.
The linked paper doesn't say the fatality rate WAS 0.1%. It was suggesting that because of undertesting, the fatality rate was likely significantly less than 2-3%, and closer to the 0.1% of a severe seasonal flu than to the MUCH higher fatality rates of SARS and MERS (which is true).
A disease as transmissible as COVID-19 and as deadly as SARS or MERS could be catastrophic.
April 01, 2020, 02:06 PM
slosig
quote:
Originally posted by triggertreat: DocH or any one else.Has there been any preliminary reports out of New York on the trial treatments?
41 posted an extremely positive report about midway down page 265:
I have the heart of a lion.......and a lifetime ban from the Toronto Zoo.- Unknown
April 01, 2020, 02:10 PM
Balzé Halzé
For those in PA.
~Alan Acta Non Verba NRA Life Member (Patron) God, Family, Guns, Country
Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan
April 01, 2020, 02:11 PM
RAMIUS
Seeing a ALOT of anger directed toward China on social media today.
April 01, 2020, 02:11 PM
smithnsig
quote:
Originally posted by RAMIUS: If you get infected, then recover, are you immune?
Can you go lick door knobs in the Corona ward and not be in danger?
There is growing consensus that you will be immune. Dr John in the UK says their might be occasional outliers but for the most part you are immune.
I’ll find the link but this is what they expect.
----------------------------------------------------------- TCB all the time...
April 01, 2020, 02:15 PM
smithnsig
quote:
Originally posted by maladat:
quote:
Originally posted by Black92LX: It is weird Fauci says one thing in the briefs with the President. But publishes in the New England Journal of Medicine that it will look just like the mortality rate of the flu.
quote:
This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2
Despite the date shown on that page, that was published in late February. I posted about it in this thread then. If you look at the page view metrics, it has page views more than 30 days ago. https://www.nejm.org/doi/metrics/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
At the time, the fatality rate was being widely reported as 2-3%, sometimes worse.
The linked paper doesn't say the fatality rate WAS 0.1%. It was suggesting that because of undertesting, the fatality rate was likely significantly less than 2-3%, and closer to the 0.1% of a severe seasonal flu than to the MUCH higher fatality rates of SARS and MERS (which is true).
A disease as transmissible as COVID-19 and as deadly as SARS or MERS could be catastrophic.
It was thought that with expanded testing that Italy’s mortality rate would drop. The opposite has happened. It was 8%. It’s now 11%. We all know that’s not the real mortality rate, but they expected it to go down, not up.
----------------------------------------------------------- TCB all the time...
April 01, 2020, 02:16 PM
sdy
Pennsylvania is predicted to be one of the early states with peak days about 16 April
April 01, 2020, 02:16 PM
tigereye313
quote:
Originally posted by RAMIUS: Seeing a ALOT of anger directed toward China on social media today.
Quite right, as long as it is directed at the government.
In short, British American Tobacco claims they have a workable vaccine ready to go, and can produce upwards of 3 MILLION doses per week.
April 01, 2020, 02:19 PM
kx90
quote:
Originally posted by sdy: Pennsylvania is predicted to be one of the early states with days about 16 April
We have a lot of people that work in NYC and live down here (SE PA).
I've been seeing a lot more NY license plates over the past couple of years. While we were going to see houses a couple months ago I noticed that there was at least one car showing up to the open houses that had NY plates and of the houses we had seen by appointment I would say 75% of the time there was another couple there from NY.
April 01, 2020, 02:21 PM
thunderson
Yep. The Chinese government needs to be on the receiving end of peoples anger. Chinese people themselves, not so much. We have many Chinese restaurants around here. They all closed a couple of weeks ago. They can still be open and several don't even have sit down space as they are carryout or delivery only. They still closed, probably out of fear and lack of business.
I have the heart of a lion.......and a lifetime ban from the Toronto Zoo.- Unknown
April 01, 2020, 02:24 PM
RHINOWSO
quote:
Originally posted by Balzé Halzé: Well, he finally caved to the pressure.
Like Trump, he has to in order be seen as 'doing something'.
April 01, 2020, 02:46 PM
gearhounds
As of today, COVID-19 is the third leading cause of death per day in the US, as per the CDC. This is a bit misleading as people generally think this in terms of annually. When the curve does flatten out and fall the numbers will lose the disease that distinction (obviously), but that’s where it sits for daily deaths behind Cancer and heart disease.
“Remember to get vaccinated or a vaccinated person might get sick from a virus they got vaccinated against because you’re not vaccinated.” - author unknown
April 01, 2020, 02:50 PM
preten2b
I have not seen a reference here to the second slide that Dr Birx asked to put up in last evenings task force briefing. She did admit and show that NY and NJ heavily influenced the new and dire predictions. I don't find that valid.
Did anyone else note that the other 48 states were all trending as a group at or below 25% of NY, and perhaps 50% of NJ?
I am in agreement they were the early states, however given the new mitigation we are all suffering now, how would they extrapolate to same curve?
While I'm at it, please stop spending on new stimulus before we see what 1st one was or what needs done, just stop it!!
------------------ The plural of anecdote is not data. -Frank Kotsonis
April 01, 2020, 02:50 PM
Rightwire
quote:
Originally posted by slosig:
quote:
Originally posted by Rightwire: Im going to say it, all of these stats, projections and curves are total B.S., educated guesses at best.
The data is inaccurate at best. You are only testing a small sample of the population and that is random. No one has any idea what the true infection and recovery rate is today as they're only testing the very sick, if tests are available.
The only thing you can accurately determine is the % of tested positive, the % of tested negative, increase/decrease, and % of deaths & recoveries.
The fact that you're testing more, and more are positive doesn't mean there is an increase in rate of spread, it only demonstrates you can record and report that data. It doesn't appear to show how many were already presumed and now simply confirmed.
The one thing that stands out and I have to disagree with above is, “You are only testing a small sample of the population and that is random.” First, ”a minute sample” would probably be more accurate. Second, and probably more important, the sample isn’t random at all. It is people who are sick and are expected to have the virus and healthcare workers who have a higher probability of having been exposed to the virus (and who you really would not want spreading the virus if infected).
Realistically, the way we might know who has been infected is when this settles down if there is a serum test for antibodies and it is very widely deployed across the population. Even if it were available now, I’d be really surprised if the folks who are trying to save the sick people spent any time on an effort to get us better statistics.
Time will tell. In the meantime, we needs to be patient, as frustrating as that is.
I need one of those signs that says, “Please God, give me patience, and give it to me NOW!”
For me it's akin to taking a 10 piece sample of the first 50 off a production line and trying to predict the quality of a 10,000,000 piece run.
Pronoun: His Royal Highness and benevolent Majesty of all he surveys
343 - Never Forget
Its better to be Pavlov's dog than Schrodinger's cat
There are three types of mistakes; Those you learn from, those you suffer from, and those you don't survive.
April 01, 2020, 03:34 PM
midwest guy
quote:
Originally posted by triggertreat: DocH or any one else.Has there been any preliminary reports out of New York on the trial treatments?
. There is a clinical study under way of Remedsivir that has a goal of enlisting 400 COVID patients who are in ICU and on oxygen. The teaching hospitals in Chicago and east coast are primary participants. Hopefully this study shows high antiviral activity that would cease the trial early so the placebo recipients would receive the drug. We can hope!
April 01, 2020, 03:39 PM
SigSentry
Good chat.
April 01, 2020, 03:51 PM
trapper189
quote:
Originally posted by bigdeal: [One might also ask, if this virus does not like hot weather, why aren't our numbers declining (or at least slowing to rise) given the damn temperature has been near 90 degrees for the past couple weeks? I did some yard work on Saturday and the temp gauge at my house showed 92 degrees.
I think the argument is that we got an influx of infected people after the first batch showed up which stretches out the period we will be affected by it.
