quote:

10,000-ish troops we have there now are a minor deterrent that Russia will likely ignore.

We don't have 10,000 troops in the Ukraine. We have perhaps 300 Florida National Guard soldiers who are partnered with Ukrainian units doing some training - and they would leave quickly if anything goes down. We also have a small number of advisors and planners. In no sense have we deployed troops to the Ukraine as a main defense, or even as a "trip wire."

Thinking about tripwires and the U.S. conventional and nuclear defense of NATO during the Cold War, it was based on two U.S. Cav Regiments in front of two Corps of two+ divisions each. This force would not have stopped GSFG it but would have slowed them down. We had a significant amount of nuclear artillery backing up the conventional forces. And the USAF and its conventional and nuclear strike capability. And so on. Was it enough? It worked for 40 or 50 years.

If Russia takes the Ukraine, or part of it (e.g., the rest of the Donbas) it will not start World War IV. It might be messy for Russia. The Ukrainians might resist. A lot of civilians might be killed. The Russian elite might decide Putin has gone too far -- that losing revenue from NORDSTREAM and being kicked out of SWIFT is too high a price to pay for the glory dreams of old men who wish the Soviet empire would come back. When it is not going to.

In the long run, Russians taking Ukraine would strengthen NATO (even the complacent Germans would sit up and take notice) and countries that are in NATO would increase their defense commitments. U.S. prestige would be enhanced. That's a real downside for Putin, and owning a surly Ukraine wouldn't make up for it.

Putting domestic politics aside for a moment, President Biden is doing everything right. He is backing up NATO and staying out of way of any actual fighting that might come to the Ukraine. Almost any President we've had over the past 70 would have done something similar.

Most of Putin's premises (that NATO is going to attack Russia) and demands (that the NATO countries should not have exercises in the East, and that countries that joined NATO after 1997 such as Poland and the Baltics have be divested) are pure nonsense. And he knows it.

He might be able to get some assurances we won't invite Ukraine into NATO -- but NATO was not likely to do that any time soon. Maybe we'll slow down the AEGIS LAND missile defense system implementation. But you may recall that President Obama cut that way back under Russian pressure when he was in office.

quote:

Originally posted by rburg:

quote:

Originally posted by stickman428:
a potato being president of the USA.

You fools voted for that idiot, not me.

You’re gonna need a spoon to stir this pot, not a fork.

[/QUOTE]You fools voted for that idiot, not me.[/QUOTE]



My father in law voted for that idiot, but in my father in law’s defense, he believes we (people) came from aliens.

quote:

Originally posted by techguy:

You fools voted for that idiot, not me.[/QUOTE]



My father in law voted for that idiot, but in my father in law’s defense, he believes we (people) came from aliens.[/QUOTE]

I’ve seen all the Aliens movies. I thought it was the other way around?

Now this is how a Sunday thread is supposed to go!

quote:

Originally posted by Pale Horse:
Now this is how a Sunday thread is supposed to go!

quote:

Originally posted by techguy:

My father in law voted for that idiot, but in my father in law’s defense, he believes we (people) came from aliens.

Didn’t they? Pre-world war -3?

quote:

Originally posted by SIGnified:

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:

quote:

Originally posted by SIGnified:

quote:

Originally posted by Jester814:
I'm just sitting here wondering what happened to WWIII and how I missed it.

Really… The past 20 years since 9/11 just blew right by you?

Uhhhh…what?

Since when was that ever considered WWIII?

Since now

You are in a way kinda right.
A good bit of Countries participated in the war on terror in Iraq and Afghanistan, just no where in numbers as in WW2(manpower wise)

Ukraine has about 4 days.

Russia will do what it wants, it will take Ukraine possibly one or two other countries in the next two and a half years or so, neither NATO or the United States will do a thing, and Putin not only knows it but he’s three to four steps ahead of it. If anything is tried he will shut down the energy flow to Germany and other EU nations, as well as what we buy from him since January 2021. Putin is old school USSR and he wants to rule a stronger Soviet Union, and with this Potatus he’s going to make a lot of strides to that end. Xi will take Taiwan to rub it in Potatus face, and the Rocket Man might act up more seeing no serious response to anything, or any real resolve to do anything. Even if Taiwan becomes a blood bath or is shut off by a blockade, China has been mining East and Central Africa for minerals to make chips. China actually has the next incarnation of Black Water providing security there. The Potatus inability to do anything is as bad if not worse than if he had any resolve, if Biden doesn’t start a second term and a Republican takes office in 24 we’ll have cleaning up and catching up to do; if Potatus gets a second term this will be the new reality and we will have to live with the outcome of this pathetic embarrassment and his being in the pockets of China and whoever else.

But hey on the bright side, no mean tweets.

quote:

Originally posted by RoverSig:

quote:

10,000-ish troops we have there now are a minor deterrent that Russia will likely ignore.

We don't have 10,000 troops in the Ukraine. We have perhaps 300 Florida National Guard soldiers who are partnered with Ukrainian units doing some training - and they would leave quickly if anything goes down. We also have a small number of advisors and planners. In no sense have we deployed troops to the Ukraine as a main defense, or even as a "trip wire."

I meant that 8500 on "heightened alert" that I thought were already in Europe but perhaps many of that number are elsewhere or stateside but "ready to deploy". Few days ago an additional 3000 were supposed to be sent to Poland, Germany, and Romania, separate from the 8500. So we have or will soon have a few thousand in the region, which is even less of a deterrent.

quote:

Originally posted by RoverSig:
Putting domestic politics aside for a moment, President Biden is doing everything right. He is backing up NATO and staying out of way of any actual fighting that might come to the Ukraine. Almost any President we've had over the past 70 would have done something similar.

Somehow I think with Trump still in office, or someone like George W. Bush or Ronald Reagan, Putin would not be doing this right now. Sure they might do nothing, but then they might just hit back, hard. Perhaps not directly, but sabotaging Russian pipelines would be a start. Biden's past failures and universally bad judgement with foreign policy show that he is weak and will do nothing of substance. If we are lucky Putin will send intelligence agents to Burisma and get the dirt on all the Bidens.

quote:

Originally posted by SIGnified:

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:

quote:

Originally posted by SIGnified:

quote:

Originally posted by Jester814:
I'm just sitting here wondering what happened to WWIII and how I missed it.

Really… The past 20 years since 9/11 just blew right by you?

Uhhhh…what?

Since when was that ever considered WWIII?

Since now

Good grief

quote:

Originally posted by Pale Horse:
Now this is how a Sunday thread is supposed to go!

I am blown away Biden has sent any troops to the area as what are we going to do? We have no business there and if we kill a single Russian troop then it will become a serious mess we never should have messed with in the first place. I think Biden is just trying to get the news focus off of how much a failure he is.

quote:

Originally posted by StorminNormin:
I am blown away Biden has sent any troops to the area as what are we going to do? We have no business there and if we kill a single Russian troop then it will become a serious mess we never should have messed with in the first place. I think Biden is just trying to get the news focus off of how much a failure he is.

He's sending troops to Germany, Hungary, and Romania. If anything, perhaps the best use of our forces if Russia does invade will be humanitarian medivac missions and medical care by our best. Can't argue with that, even Putin can't.

quote:

Originally posted by Lefty Sig:

quote:

Originally posted by StorminNormin:
I am blown away Biden has sent any troops to the area as what are we going to do? We have no business there and if we kill a single Russian troop then it will become a serious mess we never should have messed with in the first place. I think Biden is just trying to get the news focus off of how much a failure he is.

He's sending troops to Germany, Hungary, and Romania. If anything, perhaps the best use of our forces if Russia does invade will be humanitarian medivac missions and medical care by our best. Can't argue with that, even Putin can't.

If that is what our troops are used for, then I totally agree. I hope your thoughts are correct.

The US does have a commitment to defending Ukraine; the US is a signatory to the Budapest Memorandum:

On December 5, 1994 the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Britain and the United States signed a memorandum to provide Ukraine with security assurances in connection with its accession to the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state. The four parties signed the memorandum, containing a preamble and six paragraphs. The memorandum reads as follows:

1. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Welcoming the accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as non-nuclear-weapon State, Taking into account the commitment of Ukraine to eliminate all nuclear weapons from its territory within a specified period of time, Noting the changes in the world-wide security situation, including the end of the Cold War, which have brought about conditions for deep reductions in nuclear forces. Confirm the following: 1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

3. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

4. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.

5. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm, in the case of Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a State in association or alliance with a nuclear-weapon State.

6. Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America will consult in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning these commitments.

When the USSR fell, Ukraine had a lot of former Soviet nukes. The Ukrainian govt was convinced to get rid of them, in exchange for assurances that various nations would come to their aid in a crisis.

Russia moves on Ukraine. China prods the midget in North Korea to move on South Korea. While we’re distracted with Korea China moves on Taiwan forcing a decision. Iran lobs whatever they have at Israel. The Norks launch missiles at Japan. I think that moves things to WW5 right?

quote:

Originally posted by mo4040:
The US does have a commitment to defending Ukraine; the US is a signatory to the Budapest Memorandum:

...

When the USSR fell, Ukraine had a lot of former Soviet nukes. The Ukrainian govt was convinced to get rid of them, in exchange for assurances that various nations would come to their aid in a crisis.

Thank you. That very point has been made in other recent threads about the Ukraine crisis, but the Biden administration is, apparently, not the only ones conveniently ignoring it.

We have an obligation to protect Ukraine and guarantee their sovereignty, based on the Budapest Agreement alone, in recognition of the nuclear arms they surrendered that could've been used in their defense or as a deterrent.

Also, the U.S. has already shaken the confidence of our allies by surrendering Afghanistan and mismanaging the withdrawal. Abandoning Ukraine would only set further precedent and signal the world how readily the U.S. abandons allies, and degrades our ability to form coalitions in future wars and conflicts.

Violating agreements and treaties, abandoning coalition partners and NATO allies will only lead to them turning their backs on us, perhaps when we need them most... and the U.S. just might find out the hard way just how lonely a place the world can be, in a time of crisis.

It's also worth noting that the Ukrainians took KIAs and casualties in Afghanistan, on behalf of the U.S. and it really doesn't speak well of a super power that abandons coalition partners after they've fought and died for a U.S. cause.

Ukraine has significant oil and natural gas reserves, the 4th largest grain producer in the world, iron ore, coal, graphite, titanium, magnesium, nickel, mercury, and timber, among other natural resources. It has an economy based largely on industry and service, and a large IT service provider.

Even more significantly, Ukraine is strategically placed between Russia and the rest of Europe and our NATO allies. Ukraine shares the Dnieper river leading straight into Russia and other Eastern countries, and the Danube river that leads straight into the door steps of Europe and our NATO partners. Ukraine is a hub, a gateway, between Russia and Europe...and it has seaports strategic to Russia's efforts at expansion.

As I've mentioned in previous threads, the 4 I.D. at a local military base has been placed on heightened alert for possible rapid deployment.

Deploying U.S. troops to Europe isn't about starting WW III.. it's about trying to prevent it.

Russia must not be allowed to take Ukraine (or China to take Taiwan). Ukraine, in Russian hands, would allow them to exploit it's resources to improve Russia's own economy and further their own economic ability to wage war, and would also greatly improve their strategic positioning for further incursions and conquests into Europe.

If Russia can be stopped from invading Ukraine through diplomacy; great, fantastic.

If they can be stopped by sanctions; great, fantastic.

If they can be stopped by deploying NATO troops in the region; great, fantastic.

If they can be stopped by arming and training Ukraine to effectively defend themselves; great, fantastic.

But, Russia must not be allowed to take Ukraine.

Edited: to add details, emphasis, and correct grammar errors.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Modern Day Savage,

If it must be, “Let’s get ready to RRRrrumble!”

I wonder if this is what late July 1914 was like. Commitments here and there, but no means to honor those commitments. Troops moving around Europe getting ready. Only this time we’re at the dance early instead of being fashionably late.