Hanlon's aphorism uses the words "never", and "can".



Many or most of the earlier philosophers from whom he borrowed the thought are a bit less adamant.

Many examples turn up from net searches.

Here is one I liked:

"1996, the Jargon File entry on Hanlon's Razor noted the existence of a similar quotation in Robert A. Heinlein's novella Logic of Empire (1941), with speculation that Hanlon's Razor might be a corruption of "Heinlein's Razor".[6] (The character "Doc" in Heinlein's story described the "devil theory" fallacy, explaining, "You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor



"Like any mental model, Hanlon’s razor has its limitations and its validity has been contested. Some critics consider Hanlon’s razor to be an overly naive idea which can blind people to true malice. While people have malicious intent far less often than we think, it is still something which must be taken into account. Sometimes actions which could be attributed to incompetence are in fact consciously or unconsciously malicious.

An instance of Hanlon’s razor being proven wrong is the mafia. Prior to the 1960s, the existence of the mafia was considered to be a conspiracy theory. Only when a member contacted law enforcement, did police realize that the malice being perpetrated was carefully orchestrated.

To make the best use of Hanlon’s razor, we must be sure to put it in context, taking into account logic, experience, and empirical evidence. Make it a part of your latticework of mental models, but do not be blind to behavior which is intended to be harmful."

https://fs.blog/2017/04/mental-model-hanlons-razor/



The possible or even likely motivation by malice should not be ignored because of obvious stupidity and incompetence.

“Never say, ‘never,’ and always avoid saying, ‘always.’”

I would hope that any intelligent person would recognize that aphorisms are at most what is described by one Internet definition: “a pithy observation that contains a general truth” with emphasis on the “general.” But even the general truth part is often simply not true. There are countless examples of aphorisms that some people find wise and profound, but in fact range from exaggeration to the ridiculous.

One that struck me as very true when I first read it was, “It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing [belief] he was never reasoned into,” by Jonathan Swift. In time, though, I realized that I and many other people I knew had been reasoned out of beliefs that we had acquired without being reasoned into them, and often without any significant thought about them at all.

Anyone who bases his life decisions on pithy sayings without analyzing them and recognizing when they are invalid is likely to fare poorly in the long run. (Of course, perhaps that’s why so many do.)

As for the malice versus stupidity saying, one author attributed it to H.L. Mencken. I haven’t been able to find confirmation of that, but it seems like something he would have said.
I was not familiar with the Heinlein quotation, so that’s interesting. He was also the first one that I’m familiar with to use the “sheepdog” metaphor for society’s guardians. He was a smart man whose ideas and principles influenced much of my thinking and beliefs—but not all.

There are exceptions to every rule, including this one.