quote:

Originally posted by OttoSig:
I wasn't insinuating he did anything remotely praiseworthy ....

Sorry, it wasn’t my intention to suggest you were, so I apologize for giving that impression.
I was just adding a bit of filler about a subject that I believe a lot of people don’t understand.
For example, in his classic book This Kind of War (1963) T. R. Fehrenbach puts a lot of emphasis on the culture of the US Army and the quality of the soldiers at the time as having a major impact on how the war was fought in the beginning. Although I imagine his criticisms were valid, I don’t remember as much discussion of why the Communists believed they would be successful due to policies that were established far above the level of the individual soldiers, and therefore why the war occurred at all.

quote:

Originally posted by SBrooks:
Every nation - including NK - takes into account what other countries will or won't do when they make very large decisions. If you haven't learned that, then your 7 years was a waste.

I'm not qualified to argue the merits of what one president did vs another. Maybe you are.
But to pretend that NK doesn't care what our presidents say or do is likely wrong. Kim may not care much; but he pays attention. It just makes sense. Even insane people pay attention to outside influences and let that affect their decisions (the decisions may not be what we would call normal; granted).

I dont recall saying they didn't pay attention, its not Kindergarten, I said they aren't in fear or have respect. And that they will do what they want regardless of who is in office or what policies are put forth.

NK plays every move based off what other countries will or wont do. It's a cycle for them, aggression, docile, rewards, aggression, docile, rewards, repeat. With exception to the severe sanctions, they have made every move while being in control. So insinuating and President is in control is pure ridiculousness.

This has been going on for 70 years now. And no, my 7 years haven't been a waste.

quote:

Originally posted by OttoSig:

quote:

Originally posted by SBrooks:
Every nation - including NK - takes into account what other countries will or won't do when they make very large decisions. If you haven't learned that, then your 7 years was a waste.

I'm not qualified to argue the merits of what one president did vs another. Maybe you are.
But to pretend that NK doesn't care what our presidents say or do is likely wrong. Kim may not care much; but he pays attention. It just makes sense. Even insane people pay attention to outside influences and let that affect their decisions (the decisions may not be what we would call normal; granted).

I dont recall saying they didn't pay attention, its not Kindergarten, I said they aren't in fear or have respect. And that they will do what they want regardless of who is in office or what policies are put forth.

NK plays every move based off what other countries will or wont do. It's a cycle for them, aggression, docile, rewards, aggression, docile, rewards, repeat. With exception to the severe sanctions, they have made every move while being in control. So insinuating and President is in control is pure ridiculousness.

This has been going on for 70 years now. And no, my 7 years haven't been a waste.

You're wrong. If we had a "no war" policy or pulled completely out of SK, etc. That would absolutely influence NK decision making. And I think the opposite is also true to some extent. Because we have shown we are willing to fight and have troops there, etc. We are in fact constantly affecting NK decisions. They won't "do whatever they want" when they know the consequences. Sure, he pushes boundaries; but he would be in SK if we didn't have the policies we do.

quote:

Originally posted by SBrooks:

quote:

Originally posted by OttoSig:

quote:

Originally posted by SBrooks:
Every nation - including NK - takes into account what other countries will or won't do when they make very large decisions. If you haven't learned that, then your 7 years was a waste.

I'm not qualified to argue the merits of what one president did vs another. Maybe you are.
But to pretend that NK doesn't care what our presidents say or do is likely wrong. Kim may not care much; but he pays attention. It just makes sense. Even insane people pay attention to outside influences and let that affect their decisions (the decisions may not be what we would call normal; granted).

I dont recall saying they didn't pay attention, its not Kindergarten, I said they aren't in fear or have respect. And that they will do what they want regardless of who is in office or what policies are put forth.

NK plays every move based off what other countries will or wont do. It's a cycle for them, aggression, docile, rewards, aggression, docile, rewards, repeat. With exception to the severe sanctions, they have made every move while being in control. So insinuating and President is in control is pure ridiculousness.

This has been going on for 70 years now. And no, my 7 years haven't been a waste.

You're wrong. If we had a "no war" policy or pulled completely out of SK, etc. That would absolutely influence NK decision making. And I think the opposite is also true to some extent. Because we have shown we are willing to fight and have troops there, etc. We are in fact constantly affecting NK decisions. They won't "do whatever they want" when they know the consequences. Sure, he pushes boundaries; but he would be in SK if we didn't have the policies we do.

Yes, our troops here have totally prevented their advancement of nuclear arms. And no, he would not be in SK if Americans weren't here. That's foolish ego of an American talking. South Korea is 10x more advanced than NK these days and its an insult to SK to think we are the only thing stopping them.

Furthermore, if KJU wanted to attack, there is nothing stopping him from completely leveling Seoul and killing 10's of million, there isn't a technology advanced enough to stop millions of artillery round within range of this city.

I'm not gonna argue with you about it.

I'm not asking you if I'm right. I know I am. I live this shit everyday with cans on ears.

you're the one using the phrase "they will do what they want regardless of who is in office or what policies are put forth"

That's silliness.

The only way that phrase works if if you add "within their own border" to it. I'll agree he's free to build nukes and starve his people. Sanctions don't appear to matter. But his decisions about shooting missles at other nations or sending troops over the border are based on other nations policies. China has a policy of not taking anyone's shit. Therefore he doesn't mess with them. SK has spent money and we've sold and given them plenty of weaponry and this influences NK decisions. Policies make a difference.

quote:

Originally posted by SBrooks:
you're the one using the phrase "they will do what they want regardless of who is in office or what policies are put forth"

That's silliness.

The only way that phrase works if if you add "within their own border" to it. I'll agree he's free to build nukes and starve his people. Sanctions don't appear to matter. But his decisions about shooting missles at other nations or sending troops over the border are based on other nations policies. China has a policy of not taking anyone's shit. Therefore he doesn't mess with them. SK has spent money and we've sold and given them plenty of weaponry and this influences NK decisions. Policies make a difference.

So you agree with me up until the one point of KJU attacking SK basically.

We're affecting him alright, he's free to starve his people, commit human rights violations only bettered by the Holocaust, and produce ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons, but we got him cause he wont dare attack SK.

The fuck you smoking?

And that has nothing to do with the US, in my opinion, that is all because of China.

So again, not DJT, nor any other US President is affecting NK's decision making.

I believe word is just now hitting the news the missiles were advertised/thought to be hyper-sonic.

This had something to do with the flights on the mainland.

quote:

Originally posted by Graniteguy:
So hypothetically - if NK decided to launch a missile in our general direction - would they really target a random commercial airliner?

It was a ballistic missile, not a surface to air missile. It wasn't aimed at an airliner.

I sort of guessed it might be to make easier to track the ICBM, but I don't know. Maybe it was just an "abundance of caution" move.

And I have studied the Norks a little. For some reason, I find them fascinating. And while I have no access to anything but public sources, I believe OttoSig, who knows more than me, is correct. The Kims do what they do for their own reasons, and take little to zero notice of outsiders. I suspect at this time, they are mostly acting to preserve their own power, and any ideology that Kim Il Sung genuinely had is mostly automated lip service.

And don't oversimplify - if the US and the South Koreans were pushovers on the peninsula, then NK would invade again. So, yes, they pay attention to reality at the gross levels. But I think we can't do anything to influence them at a finer level. They won't do anything that will really cause the world to have to act, or take some course of action that will surely cause them harm. But, short of that, they don't care what we do or think.

Jhe888 - you get it. They stay away from actions that might bring the world down on them. Thus, policy does impact them at the gross level.
Every country and ruler is similar in that respect (although some African dictators may be closer than Kim to being oblivious).

quote:

Originally posted by SBrooks:
you're the one using the phrase "they will do what they want regardless of who is in office or what policies are put forth"

That's silliness.

Having observed NK's behavior over many years I'm going to agree with OttoSig.

Kind of...

Who we have in office really has little direct influence on whatever Dear Leader is currently running the show over there. Mostly what keeps them on any kind of a leash is China--upon whom they're nearly totally dependent for their continued survival.

That being said: China is moderately influenced by our current leadership. (At least for now. At the rate we're going I predict there's an expiration date on that influence.) Since China essentially owns NK, NK is influenced, by extension.

quote:

Originally posted by Jimbo Jones:
Who the hell calls a ground stop because of a missile launch 6000 miles away?

I don't know who, but the more interesting question is why. I read at defensenews.com yesterday that this missile was on a different trajectory and was traveling faster than previous launches. So that might have something to do with it.

If Trump wasn't feared or respected by KJU, then explain why all these "test" launches of various NK missiles virtually stopped during his time in office, then picked right back up when he was gone?

Partially-related: a few months ago I was on a Pacific track headed for Los Angeles. Two frequencies are monitored during oceanic legs, and are usually very quiet. Someone came up on the "fingers" frequency and asked what the correct evasive action is for falling rocket debris (tongue in cheek). That started some back and forth chatter. Overhead I saw lights of an aircraft passing from behind, crossing right to left. It appeared about 2,000' higher, and much faster. The path was not appropriate for the routing.

The lights appeared to accelerate toward my left, then opened up with what looked like white petals and got bright. It was clearly two separate objects, traveling at a high velocity, and appeared to be increasing speed. My first thought was two aircraft on a random track, with one going to afterburner. Then one exploded.

About then both frequencies lit up, and messages began arriving from ATC on the controller pilot datalink, about falling Russian rocket debris. A Notice to Airman was published, showing the field of debris off the coast of San Diego, but I saw it crossing to my left, to the north, so clearly was up and down the west coast. Aircraft going into San Fransisco said there was so much debris coming down that it looked like "pixie dust," whatever that is.

I don't know how much of that was visible to anyone on the mainland, but it was very visible at night over the Pacific.

So far as I know, there were no groundings associated with that event, and no one reported a diversion. It's neither possible nor practical to take evasive action for falling rocket debris, regardless of whether it's North Korean, nor Russian (The Chinese don't have a good track record lately, either).

So far as the ground stop with the North Korean hypersonic test, we were on a DoD flight in Russian airspace, headed into the Sea of Japan, and heard about it, but it didn't impact our flight.

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:
If Trump wasn't feared or respected by KJU, then explain why all these "test" launches of various NK missiles virtually stopped during his time in office, ...

I guess you have a point... if you count twenty-five launches or attempted launches between Feb. 7, 2016 and Mar. 2, 2020 "virtually stopped."

Ref: List of North Korean missile tests

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:
If Trump wasn't feared or respected by KJU, then explain why all these "test" launches of various NK missiles virtually stopped during his time in office, then picked right back up when he was gone?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...Korean_missile_tests

Here is a list of missile tests by the North Koreans of all kinds from the '80s until now. In the period when Trump was in office, they made more than 20 tests. So, there is no way to claim that tests virtually stopped when Trump was President. There were more tests during Trump's term than there were before it. There were some periods of months when there were no tests, but there was hardly a cessation of tests from 2017 to 2021. That is not good evidence that the North Koreans had any particular fear or respect of Trump.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:
If Trump wasn't feared or respected by KJU, then explain why all these "test" launches of various NK missiles virtually stopped during his time in office, ...

I guess you have a point... if you count twenty-five launches or attempted launches between Feb. 7, 2016 and Mar. 2, 2020 "virtually stopped."

Ref: List of North Korean missile tests

You stole my thunder.

NK, Russia and China all have Japan going whole hog on .mil

Trump may or may not have any influence on NK but at least he was paying attention to what NK was doing.
You can't say that about the current administration.
Biden has no clue or really cares.

quote:

Originally posted by jhe888:
You stole my thunder.

quote:

Originally posted by jhe888:

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:
If Trump wasn't feared or respected by KJU, then explain why all these "test" launches of various NK missiles virtually stopped during his time in office, then picked right back up when he was gone?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...Korean_missile_tests

Here is a list of missile tests by the North Koreans of all kinds from the '80s until now. In the period when Trump was in office, they made more than 20 tests. So, there is no way to claim that tests virtually stopped when Trump was President. There were more tests during Trump's term than there were before it. There were some periods of months when there were no tests, but there was hardly a cessation of tests from 2017 to 2021. That is not good evidence that the North Koreans had any particular fear or respect of Trump.

I think others may be confusing the supposed reduction in tests with the claim they stopped their atomic tests (not missile) during part of the Trump administration.

https://www.npr.org/sections/t...tests-shows-progress