First off, I would like to thank everyone for playing up to this point. After Week 9, only Kuglespritz and I have a way forward into Week 10.
We both have one choice, Utah. The current tie breaker says the player that posts earliest in the thread would be the winner, but as I am the thread creator, that's hardly fair.

I propose that we pick the Utah-BYU game over or under at 47.5 points (per ESPN at the time of this post). I defer to Kuglespritz to make the choice.

Technically, Rule 8 says the tie breaker is whoever posted earliest in that week's thread, not who posts their PICK in that weeks thread. You win!

I thought there was an additional item as a rule that said in all matters of debate or lack of clarity the host rules. The forum must just have dropped that from rules by mistake or technical glitch.

Good luck you two, however you decide to settle. Pistols at 10 paces, sumo, o/u, whatever.

I'm out of picks. Best of luck to the 2 still in it.

see ya next year for more fun!!

Copilot: Just looking at the modern era of the Holy War rivalry, I'd ignore the games before about 2005. Football in 1989 and football in 2026 are different planets.

Last 8 meetings
Year Total Points
2025 45
2024 43
2021 43
2019 42
2018 62
2017 32
2016 39
2015 63
Over 47.5: 2 of 8 (25%)
Under 47.5: 6 of 8 (75%)
Average total: 46.1
Last 4 meetings

43, 43, 45, 42

Average = 43.25

Not a single one got over 47.5.

Rivalry profile

BYU-Utah tends to be:

Physical
Emotional
Defensive
Lower-scoring than market expectations

The rivalry routinely drags good offenses into ugly games.

Statistical verdict

Using only the head-to-head data:

Historical probability of Over 47.5: about 25-30%
Historical probability of Under 47.5: about 70-75%

Lean: UNDER 47.5

If I were setting a betting line strictly from the recent rivalry data, I'd put the expected total around 43-45 points, not 47.5.

My crude projection from the series history would be something like:

BYU 24 - Utah 20 (44 total)

or

BYU 23 - Utah 21 (44 total)

So based solely on the historical matchup data you provided, I would not expect the combined score to exceed 47.5.

quote:

So based solely on the historical matchup data you provided, I would not expect the combined score to exceed 47.5.

So, to be clear, you're taking the UNDER?

I'm already out, but I would take the under.

quote:

Originally posted by xd45man:
I'm already out, but I would take the under.

Oh, you're just advising...
Sorry... nevermind!

Could you argue the over?

quote:

Originally posted by xd45man:
Could you argue the over?

No, I can't argue with your research.
It would just be a coin flip to me.

Of course you know the saying “That’s why they play the game. “. Anything can happen

jmtgsx,

Thank you for your fairness in deciding the tie this year!

My pick is the score will be under the 47.5 points.

Bwahahaha!! Over Rules!! Under drools! (jk)

The o/u crept up to 48.5 as of now, but 47.5 @ original post time is what we're glued to!

To clarify a little further, the game winner this week doesn't matter, only the point total.

Great analysis by xd45man!

Best of luck!!