quote:

Originally posted by L90814:
Until dark pools operated by hedge funds are eliminated, the market will be manipulated. We will continue to be financially controlled and suffer for mistakes made by market makers.

I was not aware of the shorting strategy you describe, but I fully agree that the markets are highly manipulated. My observations of the stock, options, and bond markets over the past 40 years teach me that we individuals are just along for the ride. The finance industry takes from us at every opportunity, from small fees to large market manipulations.

I've both made and lost significant sums in completely illogical situations.

My belief is that overall across longer time spans, the broad market is logical.

I could not answer any of those questions.

It all depends on when the Asian Theater of WWIII gets hotter.

The Russian front is already heating up.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/r...BBC%20on%20Dec.%2029.

The financial markets will be influenced accordingly. What direction that takes is a mystery to me.

My retirement funds are allocated 50% to cash and short term US Treasuries, and 50% to individual stocks. Overweight in US and Canadian oil companies. Underweight consumer staples, chips and FANG stocks.

It is going to be quite a ride...

quote:

Originally posted by Hay2bale:

It all depends on when the Asian Theater of WWIII gets hotter.
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It is going to be quite a ride...

Yes, I believe it is going to be quite a ride!

I don't expect specifically WWWIII, but I do guess a 5% chance of major disaster of some sort which could be WW or other zombie apocalypse scenario. I believe the other 95% probability is a rocky treacherous economy for several years at least.

When is the Ukraine war going to end, with both Ukraine and Russia reintegrating into the world economy (and is this incumbent on Putin kicking the bucket)?

When is the Fed going to stop forcing the economy into recessions to stop inflation (a lot of which is caused by the above mentioned war)?

Answer those two questions, and you'll have a lot better idea when the financial markets will come back.

quote:

Originally posted by SIGnified:

quote:

Originally posted by Tejas421:
No one knows.

Well, while that’s 100% accurate…

It doesn’t mean we don’t seek to craft intelligent forecasts, dynamic plans and firm actions. (Or at least, in this household we try; not sticking my head in the sand.)

Attempting to predict the unknowable may feel good but it just wastes time. If you want to do something substantive then perform a scenario analysis. Specifically, look at your portfolio under a best case, medium case, and worst case and make any changes accordingly. If you can sleep at night under those three cases then you are where you should be. If you’re picking investments then look at index funds; their track records over the long run can’t be beat.

quote:

What will the financial markets do in the next year or two?

I wish I had that crystal ball...

Someone posted in an earlier thread a video by a guy talking about a company investing in a three stock fund strategy. The company was M something. If someone remembers it I would appreciate reposting the video or company. Thanks.

I'm attempting to de-risk what's not already far underwater. I'll just sit on the underwater stocks or ETF's for the next 5 years. I've sold off what's never coming back. Increasing my cash position and not purchasing Bonds (except I-Bonds) or equities.

In my opinion, 2023/24 will see increasing interest rates, there will be many, many, many more layoffs 2023, the housing market will eventually capitulate and shed another ~30% in value in 2023/24. Were not going to see 2% inflation rate in 2023 or 2024. Politicians will scream at the FED for inducing the necessary pain we need to get under control again (thank you FED's for the screw up and clown show regarding inflation and rates). It feels like its going to be like 1978-1981 again (10-13% inflation rates) going into 2024.

Whats working against us? Increasing wages, low unemployment, still relative low interest rates, overpriced housing costs whether it's to buy or rent, rising inflation, President Biden's policies, Democrats in WDC and the Democrat run local and state governments.

Well, hey, it's a new year, so we can all do more tax loss harvesting if nothing else

Good point except my loss for this year exceeds the harvest limit. Oh well, there is always next year.

I moved my $ to safe investments.
My $ guy knows what to look for and I have a friend who was a Broker and has given me advice over the last 20+ yrs. and my portfolio has grown while others have shrunk.
I'm retiring in 2 1/2 years and am going to enjoy my retirement without worry.

They may go up. They may go down. They may stay the same.

quote:

Originally posted by SIGnified:
We won’t get back to 2% inflation for at least a decade, if ever in my lifetime

For at least half of my life, I never thought it would get down to 5% in my lifetime if ever.

Hard to predict. Too many factors that are not reliable anymore. I think we are not at the bottom yet. I think because there are players and pieces that actively subvert normal market forces, there's no way to forecast how far down nor how broad the decay will go. It's kind of a BOHICA period.

I don't know but IMHO the risk/reward ratio is much heavier on the risk side of things and I am planning accordingly but our portfolio is still about 18 percent in stocks that will probably remain in some Vanguard mutual funds that have done very well for me over the long haul and have done much better than the market averages - VEIPX, VPMCX(closed), and VDIGX plus some ETF of SCHD. The rest is in MM and Stable value funds and from that generated a very nice chunk of change in December.

The huge question is what will happen to inflation and interest rates. Add to that the disastrous energy policy/war on fossil fuels, no desire by politicians to even slightly reign in insane spending, the monstrous $32 trillion fast growing national debt, and our proxy war with Russia via Ukraine and I am far from optimistic

Won’t speak to specifics here… But expect to see lots of RIFs today/soon.

Markets up on the news… Firing quiet-quitters is a good move

And the Fed backs it downwards again … sigh

Solid advice here...particularly at the 1:45 mark

Lol … “stay relaxed; what? Rookie numbers. Gotta get those numbers up. Me, 2x a day” … lol …