I thought beer consumption was recession proof. Here is a quote from the industry: “The consumer is overly sensitive to pricing actions" I mean really?? Here is the article:

Brewers are beginning to feel inflation’s pinch.

For much of last year, U.S. beer sales seemed largely unaffected as rising prices squeezed shoppers’ pocketbooks. Some beer drinkers traded up to fancier brands as an affordable indulgence; others switched to cheaper suds.

That changed after price hikes took effect across the industry in October. U.S. demand for beer fell in the last three months of the year as consumers reacted with sticker shock. Corona brewer Constellation CEG 3.07%increase; green up pointing triangle Brands Inc. now says it plans to make “more muted” price increases in the coming fiscal year, because higher-than-usual price increases in October slowed its sales growth.

“The consumer is overly sensitive to pricing actions,” Constellation Chief Executive Bill Newlands told analysts Thursday when the company lowered its earnings forecast, sending shares down nearly 10%. “We need to be careful in balancing our growth profile and our pricing profile.”



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Overall, U.S. beer sales volumes have been falling for years as people switch to wine and spirits. That decline accelerated in the last quarter of 2022. Sales volume dropped even in well-performing beer categories for which demand had been growing.

U.S. retail-store sales volume of imported beers such as Modelo Especial grew 4.2% in 2022, but fell 0.5% in the four weeks before Christmas, according to an analysis of Nielsen data by the Bump Williams Consulting Co., an industry consulting firm. Superpremium domestic beer brands such as Michelob Ultra grew 0.8% in 2022, but fell 2.3% in the same December period.

The October price increases offset these declines, and kept dollar-sales growth at around 5% in the last quarter of 2022. In December, however, the dollar-sales gains shrank and the sales-volume decline accelerated, said Dave Williams, vice president of analytics and insights at Bump Williams Consulting.

Another troubling figure for the beer industry: Beer imports to the U.S. dropped more than 10% in November from the same month a year earlier, according to an analysis of U.S. Department of Commerce data released this week by the Beer Institute, a national trade association.

“The sharp drop in volume trends is concerning, and a concerning sign for the true health of the category moving forward,” Mr. Williams said. “Price sensitivity can only be stretched so far, even for beer.”


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Beer has often been touted as recession-proof. In October, Budweiser brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev BUD 0.82%increase; green up pointing triangle NV said beer drinkers would continue to buy beer because it was a treat they could afford as other indulgences moved out of reach. But the brewing giant also said it was introducing cheaper packages for consumers whose finances were especially tight.

A spokeswoman for AB InBev said Thursday the beer industry isn’t immune to the pressures other industries are facing, and added that the company’s brands and package offerings put it in a good position to weather the current inflationary environment.

Constellation Thursday said that higher costs for raw materials, packaging, fuel and freight costs had hurt its operating margins in the quarter ended Nov. 30. The company said that in its 2024 fiscal year, it will stay within its traditional price-increase range of 1% to 2%.

Beer, wine and spirits shoppers have been switching from small, local convenience and grocery stores to big-box and club stores where they can find discounts and promotions, alcohol-industry executives said. And prosecco sales soared over the holiday season as people chose the cheaper Italian bubbly over French Champagne.


LINK: https://www.wsj.com/articles/b...cx_testId=3&cx_testV

I remember in high school (hehe, 18 it was legal) we could buy a beer at a bar for a quarter and pitcher for a dollar.

Later, in life margaritas (at a bar) were the cheap drink for a buck.

Mixed drinks of almost any configuration were no more than three bucks.

Now, bar drinks are out of sight due partly to the war on alcohol and the rest due to inflation and demand.

I lover beer but quit almost completely due to a new diet (low carb) but I have no doubt inflation has a massive effect on the demand.

I'm not seeing huge price increases for the beers I drink in my area for whatever reason, so I haven't cut back at all.

I've seen small increases, but nothing insane.
I recall Shiner being in the $7 range when I was 21, and it's now just sub-$10 for a sixer.

noticed a lot of Craft went from $9.99 a 6 to $12.99 over a year or so,

some prices stayed the same, but went from a 6 pk to a 4 pk,


imports have shot up for Belgians and English Ales in this area too, and variety is more limited,

At the big chain liquor store last week, I saw a 30 pack of Keystone Light for $9.99.

I wouldn't know if prices are increasing as it's still October in my beer fridge. I like Oktoberfest so I buy a few months worth then switch back to hefeweizen when it's gone.

quote:

Superpremium domestic beer brands such as Michelob Ultra

Perhaps this is the real reason why demand is dropping as the industry thinks this watery beer-like substance is superpremium.

I hadn't noticed.

Last beer I bought was back in October, when we had out-of-town relatives staying with us for about a week. November was "No Alcohol November" for me. (I do that about twice a year. Because of the visitors I didn't do "Sober October," as I usually would.) I've had maybe six beers, since then, and no whiskey at all.

Beer fridge is nearly empty. I think there's one red in there and a couple wheat beers. Not a single IPA, which is what I usually drink.

Pretty soon will be "Alcohol-Free February" for me, so I probably won't restock the beer fridge anytime soon.

quote:

Originally posted by tatortodd:
I wouldn't know if prices are increasing as it's still October in my beer fridge. I like Oktoberfest so I buy a few months worth then switch back to hefeweizen when it's gone.

quote:

Superpremium domestic beer brands such as Michelob Ultra

Perhaps this is the real reason why demand is dropping as the industry thinks this watery beer-like substance is superpremium.

I vary between different seasonals, but hazy IPAs & hefeweizen are my go-to.
Michelob as superpremium.
Was at a Texans game & a buddy's wife brought him a beer when he'd just gotten back from getting one. He gave one to me. Like drinking water compared to the usual fare from Karbach/St Arnold/Shiner.

People are cutting out indulgences in favor of eating and energy.

Its reached the point where I no longer eat out much. A McDs lunch is $10. In fact, about all I eat out now is McDs coffee and Sausage McMuffin without egg (and only if I'm not heading back to the house soon), or the Salsa-Verde roast chicken burrito at TacoHell ($2 locally and its actually tasty).

As a home brewer, I'm not insulated from price increases, however the increases are having a lesser impact on the base components. A 50# bag of a basic malt, along with the yeast and hops will yield around 5, 5 gallon kegs of beer. That comes to just around 40 pints per keg for less than $30 a keg. Still pretty inexpensive overall.

I just drink a few beers on the weekends, so I like to try a variety of good craft beers. They've never been cheap but I've definitely seen an increase in price overall.

quote:

Originally posted by Sig2340:
People are cutting out indulgences in favor of eating and energy.

That's true. Everyone knows the price of gas. It's posted on a sign at every gas station.
But do you know the price of your heating/cooling energy?
I just got my natural gas bill... $300 for the month! I was shocked.

But I haven't quit drinking... yet!

Maybe the kids don’t drink as much beer?

I see all these weird alternatives being advertised, like hard seltzer… WTF?

quote:

Originally posted by SIGnified:
Maybe the kids don’t drink as much beer?

I see all these weird alternatives being advertised, like hard seltzer… WTF?

Definitely that too.
May not affect those like Bud Light & the like, but I definitely see a lot more of the seltzers, ranch water, etc on the shelf.

My "go-to" flavors are $22-24 per 12, on sale, prior to tax. I try to pick something I like and buy it 15 gallons (keg) at a time, which typically lasts me about 6-7 months.

I calculated once a while back that it saved about $100 doing it that way, and probably more now.

quote:

Originally posted by Sig2340:
People are cutting out indulgences in favor of eating.

.

Beer is a food

I've switched to liquor, much more cost/effort efficient.

Would love to see what would happen if no one bought anything let alone booze for a week, or a month. Gotta wonder what prices would be like after that.

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A cold brewski would be tasty!

My late uncle who owned a shot, beer and burger bar told me that the best times in his business were when the Democrats were in charge. Inflation up, unemployment up, his sales went up.

Since he passed before the Obama years I’ve always wondered if his opinion would have changed then or today.